Coming up on @TSTRMPro

Fear and Loathing On Wall Street
* We remain in a 'Bull Market In Complacency'
* There is certainty and precision of the bullish consensus despite a wide range of possible market and economic outcomes - many of which are adverse and market unfriendly
* A deeper than expected (and "inconceivable") market drawdown may be growing more likely
* Many make the case that stocks are inexpensive to an another, overvalued asset class (bonds) - that makes little sense to me (particularly at current equity valuations)
* Legacy financials, asset gatherers and retailers are among the most vulnerable market sectors
“No sympathy for the devil; keep that in mind. Buy the ticket, take the ride...and if it occasionally gets a little heavier than what you had in mind, well...
maybe chalk it up to forced consciousness expansion: Tune in, freak out, get beaten.”
― Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @ferrotv @jimcramer @SquawkCNBC @riskreversal @ScottWapnerCNBC @guyadami @joeterranova @carlquintanilla

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More from @DougKass

3 Sep
@CNBCFastMoney In the entire conversation on $NFLX there is no discussion of fundamentals @MelissaLeeCNBC
Just a bunch of technicals and glittering generalities...
Why I Am Short Netflix
* Netflix's first mover advantage is likely to be challenged in the years ahead
* The company's growth rate will likely moderate relative to expectations as the streaming market grows more crowded
The best days, from a rate of change viewpoint - in subscribers and in revenues, is probably behind Netflix (NFLX) and I expect a rerating - lower - in the
company's shares.
Netflix has had first mover advantage in the streaming business for quite a long time.
Though the company's market dominance will likely continue there are accumulating signposts that demand has been pulled forward and that its leadership in the marketplace
Read 9 tweets
26 Aug
@TSTRMPro Aug 25, 2021 | 09:25 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Look Below the Market's Surface for Clues of Future Stock Market Performance
* Equity investors continue to ignore credit trends, overvaluation, the persistency of inflation, the likelihood of rising interest rates, slowing domestic
and global economic growth, a likely monetary pivot and undisciplined (and modern) fiscal and monetary policy which continues to distort equity prices
* A trend in motion tends to stay in motion until an outside influence is imposed
* But we should always look below the market's
surface for contrary market clues
* Investors/traders often sell and buy at inappropriate turning points in the market
* Credit leads, providing a deep footprint and clues for us to interpret and help us navigate the markets
* The market's downside risks dwarf upside rewards
Read 5 tweets
22 Aug
Today's phones, Twitter and other social media platforms have made people assholes
The addiction to smart phones have produced a short- term dopamine driven feedback loop which has made the average high school kids' level of anxiety equivalent to the average level of
a psychiatric patient in the 1950s.
Phones make for shady, needy, passive-aggressive, mean and fake people (fake outrage, fake pretty, fake brave, fake supportive). Its become more imp't to take a picture of you looking like you are having a good time than really having
a good time. Dating has been reduced from a quest for true love to choosing from a menu - "I think I will have the Kelly tonite."
Read 6 tweets
17 Aug
Aug 17, 2021 | 09:25 AM EDT DOUG KASS
Why I Turn My Head Away From the TINA Argument
TINA ("there is no alternative") is a nonsensical phrase to me.
Let me explain and share one simple thought with all of you about how I think about what most people think of as
"interest bearing" securities and in particular short-term ones like T-bills.
I do not think of only the interest received as what I am getting for being in T-bills.
I also think of the opportunity to benefit from any decline in the prices of other things - equities and longer
dated interest bearing instruments - I might buy in the future.
A T-bill paying 0.01% that lets me buy great companies 20% lower on a real market pullback is paying me 20.01% in the real world of investing.
This morning I suggested selling equities and people may be comparing
Read 5 tweets
11 Aug
Aug 10, 2021 | 03:15 PM EDT DOUG KASS
Is It All a Ponzi Scheme?
* An afternoon rant!
* Expanding on this morning's Bloomberg interview
Webster defines a Ponzi scheme as "an investment swindle in which some early investors are paid off with money put up by later ones
in order to encourage more and bigger risks."
As I suggested in this morning's Bloomberg Surveillance interview, our economic policy is beginning to look that way.
Currently massive government spending - to benefit Americans - is being financed by taking on enormous amounts of
debt with which future citizens will be burdened.
That debt emanates from unprecedented budget deficits resulting from spending well in excess of tax receipts. Public borrowing has vastly increased private savings at the expense of a soaring national debt. As a result, despite
Read 17 tweets
4 Aug
@tomkeene @FerroTV
Bond Bomb
"Another, less-understood risk is the potential for price declines should yields tick up just slightly. If the yield on the 10-year Treasury were to rise just 10 basis points, the resulting price drop would wipe out an entire year’s interest income..
. That sounds like a miserable investment to me.""
- Jim Tisch, Loews CEO
These days, behind nearly every extreme move, is a hedge fund or an asset manager in distresss.
Think Archegos or Melvin Capital, as examples.
This morning we learned that Alphadyne Asset Management… has lost about $1.5 billion short the fixed income market in the last several months as it positioned for a curve steepening and higher interest rates.
I suspect the panic move lower in the ten year US note's yield in July -to 1.11% (when Alphadyne lost
Read 5 tweets

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