Since the modelling the NSW gov has released is in terms of the LGAs of concern only, here's my model re-run with only the LGAs of concern considered instead of the whole of NSW. Result is extremely similar to that of the gov's modelling.
The smoothing for mine is centred though, meaning to compare with their 7-day moving average, you'll wanna push my projection to the right ~3.5 days. Taking that into account, it looks like my model is predicting a peak about ~1 week later than them, but of the same height.
And the difference in timing is pretty much within the uncertainty range of both projections, so they basically agree to within the accuracy claimed by each model
Animated version of my NSW projections over time. *not 100% identical to actual past projections because I'm using my current code running on old data and there have been some minor changes, but very close.
And the version with cases on a log scale
You can see that we did not see the projected effect of vaccinations for some time. If they were working as expected, something else must have been increasing R_eff at the same time. If you squint, maybe the decrease in R since mid-August has been in line with expectations.
Some have written to me asking about vaccine assumptions, and how much they affect the projections. I assume a 40% overall reduction in transmission per dose - i.e. an 80% reduction for someone fully vaccinated. How much would it change things if that were different? 1/🧵
TL;DR, this much. Here's the current NSW projection with 70%, 80% and 88% reduction in spread assumed for fully vaccinated people (and half that for single-dosed). More on those numbers below. 2/🧵
The overall reduction in transmission from a vaccine comes from it preventing some fraction of infections—this is called E_i, and also preventing some fraction of onward transmission in the infections it doesn't prevent—this is called E_t. 3/🧵