Turning ~11 ETH to 862 ETH in 33 days flipping NFTs.
A thread
1. Not much has changed in the approach since the first thread. @nansen_ai remains my most used tool for following smart money buys and is the reason for most of my buys/sells.
2. I did join some groups later in the month (@pixelvault_ DAO & @Metaverse_HQ), which are great to use as confirmation @icy_tools is also a new tool, which is good to see current mints
For finding and analyzing alpha though @nansen_ai still remains👑
3. Realized gains came from popular drops:
@0n1Force - +72 ETH [~5781% ROI] @BoredApeYC Mutants - +42 ETH [~151% ROI]
dotdotdot - +36 ETH [~1313% ROI], only noticeable stealth drop
Some NFTs were on other wallets/transferred, which are not tracked and account for +~50-100 ETH?
4. Thread would not be complete without @lootproject, which unfortunately wasn't tracked properly.
Rough estimate though:
LOOT - +206 ETH [~29430% ROI]
$AGLD - +143 ETH
+349 ETH Total from ~0.7 ETH mint of 20 LOOT
5. A decent amount of the portfolio still is in NFTs (~408/862 ETH), which should have been sold earlier, but it is what it is.
I would recommend taking profits aggressively, but always check the data.
e.g. LOOT gains would never have been possible, if I did not see smart buys.
6. LOOT gains show the importance of checking top holders & smart money buys. Conviction to hold long is only possible by trusting the data.
When it comes to NFTs given illiquidity & sizing, large gains are truly made from conviction plays not flipping.
I've met too many great people along the journey to list them all, but the NFT community is definitely amazing.
1. As more users enter NFTs, more liquidity is present allowing for quicker parabolic price action. Most of this liquidity is directed towards new projects, which now easily hit 3x mint and 2.5k+ holders in the first few days.
2. Most noticeable example is @KoalaAgencyNFT, which went from 0.05 ETH mint to 1+ ETH floor and 4k+ holders in about 3 days.
@0xShual@pranksyNFT@beaniemaxi@DerpyBirbsETH@opensea 1. Yeah that's how it works. I saw pranksy, stronghands and some others bought, before his tweet, so I bought as well.
2-3. The data is slow to update, but it doesn't look like that on my side for derpy birds.
@0xShual@pranksyNFT@beaniemaxi@DerpyBirbsETH@opensea 4. Flippers are selling and exit liquidity is buying, so yes. 5. Yeah there's people buying the floor as they will shill. 6. People buy panic sold rares, since they are going to hold and shill. I didn't buy in this case, but yes that's what they do.
@dopeshibas - +10 ETH [~848% ROI] in about 5.5 hours
mint was 0.025 ETH, floor now at 0.2 ETH
Reasoning on the trade and analysis using @nansen_ai
1. For this project, there was unusual buying by rare collectors.
Most likely influencers are lazy and frontrun on alts with some NFT activity, hence rare classification.
2. Top rare collector somehow put 8+ ETH (incl. gas) out of their ~12 ETH balance into @dopeshibas.
Also conveniently holds a decent amount of @Pudgy_Penguins and @PartyPenguinNFT, which I will just leave at that...
1. Illiquidity of NFTs fundamentally causes significant volatility.
Price action reflects emotional biases:
liquidation cascade => flipper/panic sellers realize their life savings are in jpegs
up only => price discovery/FOMO further fueled by canceled listings
2. Besides looking at the price floor, SMA is a nice way to confirm demand zones and predict momentum. @pudgy_penguins sat near the 0.8-1 ETH demand zone, after a breakout with significant volume, before trending higher.
1. @PartyPenguinNFT originally had a 0.03 mint price (excl. gas) and was down bad for holders (~66% down) for a few days. Yet top whales continued to have diamond hands till it sold out, then dumped for a strong 7-10x ROI.
2. @alphabettyNFT had a 0.03 mint price (excl. gas) and experienced volatility as flippers sold. Top holders though continued to hold and account for 68% supply. And now the price seems to be trending up as they shill.