I have said many times that I expect an eventual govt led by @GiorgiaMeloni to act in continuity with the 4 govts led by @berlusconi in the last 25 years. The fundamental reason are the powerful external constraints placed upon Italy by its membership of NATO & the EU...
... (particularly as Italy starts drawing EU funds to bounce back, & considering its ballooning state debt & reliance on international finance markets).

These facts will not be changed by a campaign - as they never have before.
Yes, the radical right League & Brothers of Italy send (not exactly "covert") messages to an extreme right milieu, trying to keep these individuals & groups on board, not to mention the small but vociferous world of NO-VAX, No-Green Pass groups...
But in doing this, they act in continuity -not in opposition- to the now "moderate", "liberal", "pro-EU" @berlusconi, without whom the radical right would not have become a fixed feature of successive govts.
Berlusconi's statements have been clear and explicit, when it suited his agenda:

“Mussolini never killed anyone. The fascist regime used to send people in exile – basically a holiday”
"The introduction of the Euro has halved the wages and savings of Italians"

Trying to address both "the moderates" (who will ALSO enjoy the narrative whereby Italians where good people basically led astray by Hitler) & small but active groups of extreme right supporters has always been the strategy of the right wing coalition, led by one @berlusconi.
Narrative whereby the new right alliance would be fundamentally different from that of the past suits both those who, on the right, are after the vote of Eurosceptics & "No-Green Pass" groups & a certain left that cannot put two convincing ideas together & look voters in the eye.
Devoid of identity & credible proposals, & focused on their own infighting, PD & M5S may be left with the rallying cry of "don't let the fascists take over".

It won't be enough, as it has not been enough in the past.
If interested in the fundamental continuity between the present and the past, see my recent article (with @dbonansinga & @Zulianello_M):
And also in Italian here:

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More from @DrAlbertazziUK

14 Apr
Like Conte's, Draghi's govt seems to be making it up on a daily basis concerning pandemic.

It is as if structural factors (e.g. state capabilities), relations of power state/regions, and: "events, dear boy, events" (e.g. J&J & AZ) mattered more -much more- than identity of PM 🤔
On the other hand, no-one could have predicted this.
Problem with this constant overpromising of "new eras" that always fail to materialise is that it provides the ideal breeding ground for next "anti-elite" entrepreneur who, this time, "will definetely get things done". Feeding a never ending cycle of political disillusionment.
Read 4 tweets
4 Feb
Some Italian papers are talking abt the right wing coalition "breaking up", since the parties within it have different positions abt Draghi. Nothing is further from the truth. This is the usual good cop/ bad cop routine they have adopted many times before-which benefits them all.
The facts. Berlusconi has consistently asked for a "Government staffed by the best" to lead the country. Taking part allows him to influence allocation of the goodies of the Recovery Plan, election of next President, while fostering the image that -incredibly- Italian media...
...are unquestioningly perpetuating: that he is a "moderate", "anti-populist", pro-European & some sort of father figure who has de facto become almost super partes now.

This move helps him occupy this niche in view of the next election. It's only 7/8/9% of the electorate?
Read 14 tweets
3 Feb
Draghi has PD & Demolition Man in the bag already (yes, strange as it may sound, Renzi has literally no choice right now but to back him. & he will).

So he only needs to pick a couple of ministers M5S can "sell" to their grassroots...
... they don't even need to be party members (Conte wasn't, in fact Conte could well be one of them). Then he could pick one of two that Berlusconi likes. And he's done it.

(It's clear enough already that no-one is going to focus on policies, just look at the debate today...
... the guy could literally walk into Parliament carrying a blank sheet of paper & improvise for 15 minutes & it would not make the slightest bit of difference).
Read 4 tweets
3 Feb
This is now the proposal of ex-M5S leader Di Maio to get out of the impasse, avoid elections and still keep the party together.👇
In other words: support Draghi, but ask him to put together a "governo politico" (in the rest of the world simply known as: "a government").

See debate among M5S Parliamentarians here:
There is even a precedent, the Ciampi govt of 1993. Ciampi was a former Governor of the Bank of Italy, hence a technocrat, however many of his ministers came from the parties that supported his govt.

In other words, technocratic govts come in different shades of grey...
Read 4 tweets
3 Feb
A detached govt of "technocrats" that only does "what is needed"only exist in some sort of parallel reality, of course.

In fact, it is a profoundly ideological construct.
Draghi will need to decide whether to appeal more to the M5S with his proposals - trying to stem the tide of opposition there - or whether to incentivise the League to back him.
He can of course choose ministers that are in good terms with certain parties (or even members), or pick them all "from the professions".

These are all inherently (and important) political acts that will decide if his govt even takes off.
Read 4 tweets
10 Apr 20
1/ Major Italian parties are sticking to the script concerning the recent agreement reached by EU finance ministers, according to whether they support the govt or not, & also what they need to do to compete with their own allies (e.g. League vs. Brothers of Italy). /THREAD/
2/ Makes perfect sense: the agreement is ambiguous, hard to interpret, hence citizens will take their cue from parties on whether glass half full or empty.

How these decisions will be framed in next couple days is crucial.
3/ Partito Democratico. Leader has not made comments via social media as yet (hello@nzingaretti!), but inevitably they’ll stick to the line of PD Finance Minister Gualtieri. Frame: All in all, a good first step, but Euro/Coronabonds still on the table (Netherlands say: not so)..
Read 15 tweets

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