So we talk about finding confluence with moves and trying to build a bit of narrative for where price is likely to reach up or down to
I'll take a look here at how a possible $UNI trade could be developed:
Start with HTF key closes ie Monthly, Weekly, and Daily.
I've gone ahead and marked these up, but consolidated on the Daily Chart
Here's a 4H version of these levels.
Note how price acts within these key HTF zones
Using the VPVR tool from Tradingview, we can see where the most volume has taken place within the area that we are looking at on the chart.
Notice that we are just trading above the Point of Control for this area (and also just below the recent monthly close)
So are we bearish or bullish? In this case, let's explore with fibs and PA
We're looking like we've had two higher lows, followed by a rally up past recent market structure (shaded rectangle) and formed a swing high.
(HTF levels turned off for clarity)
We'd expect price to fall back to the 0.618 - 0.705 levels, but with instances of sharp moves like this (think flags etc), you'll find that price respects the 0.382 and 0.5 levels more than our usual targets.
And, we have seen a bit of a spike at the 0.5 level per the chart.
On the 1H chart, we also see a rounded bottom / reversal move play out, which supports our hypothesis.
In this case, I would be bullish.
Taking it the next level down to the 15M TF, we turn our HTF levels back on, and then also include our favourite suite of entry / exit / target fibs
If pull your fibs in anticipation of where a bullish trade could run into trouble, you find confluence with:
- A weekly level
- The 0.618 to 0.79 levels of the fibs
- Not only that, but you'd also find that there was a previous POC in between the 0.618 and 0.705 levels
And entry and targets?
See below for an example of a trade based on retracement to realistic market structure, and then an end goal of the Daily swing high, with profits taken at the Weekly level / POC interface explored above / reverse fib zones.
Stop Loss *could* be placed below the HTF recent lows, or if aggresive, then at more local swing lows
This example is a 3.45R trade
And what if price flips and is bearish I hear you ask?
Well, you've now got the tools to at least formulate a plan...we aren't always right, but as long as we've got a plan, this is half the battle hey?
Hope this helped you on your journey, and happy trading
- Mindset
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A little snippet into a current trade of mine right now - $DOT
A mini day trade thread:
- First open the chart and assess the Price Action
- What we see is some previous market structure broken per the rectangle
- We've also now had 4 taps of support here
Now we set up our HTF fibs as shown, and then also check the volume
- Note that there was a large amount of volume to support the larger move, with much lower volume now where price is trading
- We've hit the 0.618 fib of a higher time frame &clearly seen some rejection
- Based on the move, we should now build a narrative
- History has doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme
We can call this move a bear flag at the moment, and the key thing is to recognize how price reacts as the 0.382 fib level of a bear flag
- Note the ellipses shown here for reference
Now to check out some Volume Profile:
We're at the VaH of the VPVR - in a parallel channel we usually short at the tops of these, so there would have been a lot of selling interest here, coupled with the 0.618 hit of the overall HTF
When carrying out TA, you've got to build confluence. Here is how I would build this $BTC trade:
1st Pic - VPVR tool on TV shows we are at Value Area High of the recent price action
Second image introduces a parallel channel to the mix
We usually short at the highs of the channel, and long at the lows, taking profit or closing trades at the mid line (this works until it doesn't - you will end up losing a trade doing this in each channel)
Third image introduces HTF fibs into the mix
Note how well these levels are respected when pulled from the swing low of the move to the swing high
Sick of getting stopped out, taking a shitty entry, or generally feel like you gettin your arse whooped in trading?
If so, you’re in luck my friends - I’ve knocked up this whizz bang, you beaut thread for you:
✍️📒
Agenda
- Setting Up Fibonacci (Fibs)
- Long & Short Tool
- Position Size Calc
- How to Use Fibs
- Position Entries Based on Fibs
- Fib Targets
- The Importance of the 0.28 Level & Profit Taking
Fibonacci
I’m primarily a Fibonacci trader. I use them for every single trade I take. The value they offer is the best there is in my opinion as a primary tool for assessing a trade (you still need confluence to enter a trade though!)
Here are the settings I use.