Tibet is another legally murky territory. China invaded and occupied it but the erstwhile government of Tibet fled to India. So, China's occupation itself is still disputed. Now, going further back into history. Let me talk about three distinct units which matter -
Tibet, Guge and South Tibet. Guge is a tricky subject. It was an independent kingdom and almost alm history, it was independent of Tibet. In 1642, Ladakh invaded Guge and conquered it. Consequently, the border between Ladakh and Tibet was marked near Mt Kailash.
In 1684, Ladakh was pushed back and a treaty was signed. The border is loosely defined to be between Stok, Ruthog and Ngari. But because of the religious importance attached to Manasarovara, Ladakh was given a village - Minsar just by the sacred lake. Likewise, Bhutan,
which was also a part of the same war was given a village near Mt Kailash. And both the countries will have unhindered access to their estates. Now, the fun part. When Dogras conquered Ladakh, they rejected the 1684 treaty and invaded Guge. The expedition was defeated but
two things came to be out of that invasion 1. 1684 treaty is not held sacrosanct 2. The borders were declared as that of before the war.
Meaning Minsar is still with India. In fact, Dogra tax collectors went to Minsar at least till 1954.
When border discussions came with India and China, Nehru ordered Indian delegation not to bring up Minsar if China doesn't. And China didn't. Meaning, even today, Minsar is legally India's and India has access to Indian military between Demchok and Minsar
if India wants to set up an army base there. Likewise, Bhutan has access till Mt Kailash through G219. Can India demand access? Fully so. Now to South Tibet. There are multiple issues with that. 1. China calls it out as an unequal treaty
2. China claims Tibet is it's vassal when the treaty is signed and that China is not a party to the treaty.
On the other hand, the Tibetan Government recognises this border. And that makes the territory legally India's. Now, let's assume China's stand is correct.
Then what happens? The last treaty which Tibet signed and which China didn't reject becomes valid. What's that? Surprise. Treaty of Thapathali, 1846 which makes Tibet a tribute paying entity to Nepal - in effect, a vassal of Nepal which inturn is a vassal of India.
This treaty was never repudiated. Now the legal position is this. 1. As the suzerain for Tibet, India is legally bound to invade China and liberate Tibet 2. China is expected to cough up the tribute to India along with interest for the last 75 years.
So, what's the takeaway? 1. Treaties are not worth the paper they are signed over 2. The situation is murky enough for India to lay claim on Guge, if not the whole of Tibet. 3. India can legally demand access to Minsar and is permitted to set up a military base there.
Just think of the implications of an Indian military base bang on G219 and through which China will have to pass to reach Burang. If that happens, either Ali will be compromised or Burang will be.
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Tajikistan has become the centre of focus of the world these days. So, what do we know about that country? First of all, a race by name Tajik doesn't exist. Tajik in Persian means someone who is not a Turk and speaks Persian. What of Dushanbe?
Dushanbe means Monday in Persian - Dushanbe was a settlement built on a monday market site on the local trade routes. Now, this place traditionally had no distinct history though the race is attested to at least 500 BC.
There is a controversy over who they are - are they Persianized locals like the Scythians or Persian immigrants, there is no clear information. Tajikistan was just a part of the Central Asian Empires and rarely a part of the expanded Persian and Chinese Empires - Scythians,
The Arg fell in less than half an hour after Ghani’s exit to a group who, we now know, belong to the Haqqani faction of Taliban.
How could the Haqqani terrorists so quickly reach Kabul from their positions outside the capital city?
It seems like they were working with their accomplices inside the Arg and had prior positions inside the city. Before the defense minister was able to act to defend the president’s office, they got to Arg.
This blitzkrieg-like attack gives rise to the suspicion that President Ghani and the Haqqani group, who belong to the same Pashtun tribal confederacy as him, i.e. the Qaljayis, were conspiring together; Arg was given to the Taliban in conjunction with Ghani’s escape.
Let me present another conspiracy theory. Some projections estimate that Karakoram Highway will be permanently destroyed by 2024-25 because of the surging Shishpar Glacier and China has got two options -
spend hunderds of millions to build a new road or search for an alternative. Now, an alternative exists - Taliban controlled Afghanistan. China can enter either through Wakhan or Termez and if Taliban can guarantee stability,
China-Iran link is a far better proposition than the loss making, terror infested CPEC. China knows this and Pakistan knows this. So, what should Pakistan do? And if Taliban sees no use with Pakistan, with CPEC dead, what will Pakistan do?
Now that Afghanistan disaster is nearing an end, there are a few questions for the Indian Government.1 1. What is your strategic outlook with regard to Pakistan for the next ten years? Is there a long term plan available to tackle the Pakistani nuisance for good?
Yes. Pakistan is just nuisance grade, but nuisance nonetheless. 2. What is going to be with Afghanistan? Where do you see Afghanistan in the next ten years? Are we going for a sedentary Taliban ruled Afghanistan or are we going for something completely different?
3. Every country achieved something out of this Afghan fiasco. What did India gain? Are you thinking of establishing a land bridge as a precaution? 4. What role is India going to play in controlling Helmand-Gwadar drug smuggling axis? Any proactive and aggressive steps planned?
Need not be. Chinachara comes from China -> Kinnaur and not China. China, Aparachina and Mahachina should be looked from that angle. Also. Guge Country is traditionally called as Hunadesa -> Possibly because of Xiongnu incursions.
Plus you need to look at gold digging ants as well. This is something which is related to Aksai Chin-Ruthog area. Possibly what we are looking at is Trans-Karakoram Tract and not northern Afghanistan. Now, because this discussion IIRC originated from Gupta tribute,
either Skandagupta or Kumaragupta - one of them mentions Kailasa in his conquests - clearly, he entered the Guge Plains in force.
From Gen @Muham_madi1's Wiki page.
"Expecting the eruption of a civil war after the American withdrawal, officers have been gravitating towards ethnic groupings and powerful generals, with Mohammadi and the Pashtu Defense Minister Wardak at the head of the two largest cliques."
In June 2010, Bismillah Khan was transferred from his position as Army Chief of Staff to the post of Interior Minister by President Hamid Karzai.
The departure of Mohammadi from the Ministry of Defense leaves no one who can rival Wardak in stature, which could mean a weakening of centrifugal forces.