Tajikistan has become the centre of focus of the world these days. So, what do we know about that country? First of all, a race by name Tajik doesn't exist. Tajik in Persian means someone who is not a Turk and speaks Persian. What of Dushanbe?
Dushanbe means Monday in Persian - Dushanbe was a settlement built on a monday market site on the local trade routes. Now, this place traditionally had no distinct history though the race is attested to at least 500 BC.
There is a controversy over who they are - are they Persianized locals like the Scythians or Persian immigrants, there is no clear information. Tajikistan was just a part of the Central Asian Empires and rarely a part of the expanded Persian and Chinese Empires - Scythians,
Khwarezm and what not. Ultimately, the territory became a part of the Khanate of Bukhara. This Khanate became a vassal of Durrani Empire and was partitioned between Russia and Afghanistan in 1868. The Northern Part went to Russia and the Southern to Afghanistan.
Notice, we are still talking about an Uzbek Khanate with a considerable Persian minority split between Kokand and Bukhara.
So, what is the first breath of identity for the Tajiks? In 1924, Tajik Autonomous SSR was created inside Bukhara SSR or Uzbek SSR.
Some delimitation and the territory took a final shape in 1929 involving both Tajik ASSR and Pamir Okrug(later Gorny Badakhshan of Tajik SSR). This is the territory of the current Tajikistan.
The problem all along was, this territory was not a population centre and is not on the path of any major trade route. Neither does it have any resources. Consequently, it was pastoral and very poor. Though the Soviets tried to do something, it didn't add much value and today,
Tajikistan is the poorest of the Central Asian Republics. and its no wonder Tajikistan is one of the last to come out of USSR!! In months, the country descended into a devastating civil war between the secular government and Islamic orthodoxy clearly influenced by Afghanistan.
The country split between North and South on opposing sides of the civil war, the war dragged on for five years before a compromise was achieved with Ahmed Shah Massoud and Burhanuddin Rabbani influencing the rebels to back down.
A devastated country with no resources, the country eked on - only to be disrupted by the Taliban advance and their eventual collapse in 2001. On one side, Taliban affiliated Uzbek terrorists used Tajikistan as staging ground straining relations between both the relations and
on the other, Jamaat Ansarullah, a Tajik terrorist group made Afghanistan it's base. With not much in the name of exports except raw minerals(total exports - 1.4 billion USD), remittances from Russia(30% of GDP) form a major source of income for Tajikistan.
But, they have got one advantage. Well, its both advantage as well as a disadvantage - Turkmen Natural Gas. China's pipelines are planned through Tajikistan and that means on one side, Tajikistan has jobs and energy security and on the other, it is stuck in a Chinese Debt Trap.
Only after Karimov's death, terms with Uzbekistan started to normalize. Stuck between the overly powerful China and Russia, and the major market economy of the area, Uzbekistan and with not much resources, it needs to be seen what course Tajikistan will take in the future.

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More from @cbkwgl

8 Sep
The Arg fell in less than half an hour after Ghani’s exit to a group who, we now know, belong to the Haqqani faction of Taliban.
How could the Haqqani terrorists so quickly reach Kabul from their positions outside the capital city?
It seems like they were working with their accomplices inside the Arg and had prior positions inside the city. Before the defense minister was able to act to defend the president’s office, they got to Arg.
This blitzkrieg-like attack gives rise to the suspicion that President Ghani and the Haqqani group, who belong to the same Pashtun tribal confederacy as him, i.e. the Qaljayis, were conspiring together; Arg was given to the Taliban in conjunction with Ghani’s escape.
Read 11 tweets
6 Sep
Let me present another conspiracy theory. Some projections estimate that Karakoram Highway will be permanently destroyed by 2024-25 because of the surging Shishpar Glacier and China has got two options -
spend hunderds of millions to build a new road or search for an alternative. Now, an alternative exists - Taliban controlled Afghanistan. China can enter either through Wakhan or Termez and if Taliban can guarantee stability,
China-Iran link is a far better proposition than the loss making, terror infested CPEC. China knows this and Pakistan knows this. So, what should Pakistan do? And if Taliban sees no use with Pakistan, with CPEC dead, what will Pakistan do?
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
Tibet is another legally murky territory. China invaded and occupied it but the erstwhile government of Tibet fled to India. So, China's occupation itself is still disputed. Now, going further back into history. Let me talk about three distinct units which matter -
Tibet, Guge and South Tibet. Guge is a tricky subject. It was an independent kingdom and almost alm history, it was independent of Tibet. In 1642, Ladakh invaded Guge and conquered it. Consequently, the border between Ladakh and Tibet was marked near Mt Kailash.
In 1684, Ladakh was pushed back and a treaty was signed. The border is loosely defined to be between Stok, Ruthog and Ngari. But because of the religious importance attached to Manasarovara, Ladakh was given a village - Minsar just by the sacred lake. Likewise, Bhutan,
Read 12 tweets
6 Sep
Now that Afghanistan disaster is nearing an end, there are a few questions for the Indian Government.1
1. What is your strategic outlook with regard to Pakistan for the next ten years? Is there a long term plan available to tackle the Pakistani nuisance for good?
Yes. Pakistan is just nuisance grade, but nuisance nonetheless.
2. What is going to be with Afghanistan? Where do you see Afghanistan in the next ten years? Are we going for a sedentary Taliban ruled Afghanistan or are we going for something completely different?
3. Every country achieved something out of this Afghan fiasco. What did India gain? Are you thinking of establishing a land bridge as a precaution?
4. What role is India going to play in controlling Helmand-Gwadar drug smuggling axis? Any proactive and aggressive steps planned?
Read 7 tweets
29 Aug
Need not be. Chinachara comes from China -> Kinnaur and not China. China, Aparachina and Mahachina should be looked from that angle. Also. Guge Country is traditionally called as Hunadesa -> Possibly because of Xiongnu incursions.
Plus you need to look at gold digging ants as well. This is something which is related to Aksai Chin-Ruthog area. Possibly what we are looking at is Trans-Karakoram Tract and not northern Afghanistan. Now, because this discussion IIRC originated from Gupta tribute,
either Skandagupta or Kumaragupta - one of them mentions Kailasa in his conquests - clearly, he entered the Guge Plains in force.
Read 4 tweets
29 Aug
From Gen @Muham_madi1's Wiki page.
"Expecting the eruption of a civil war after the American withdrawal, officers have been gravitating towards ethnic groupings and powerful generals, with Mohammadi and the Pashtu Defense Minister Wardak at the head of the two largest cliques."
In June 2010, Bismillah Khan was transferred from his position as Army Chief of Staff to the post of Interior Minister by President Hamid Karzai.
The departure of Mohammadi from the Ministry of Defense leaves no one who can rival Wardak in stature, which could mean a weakening of centrifugal forces.
Read 4 tweets

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