Thread by @jameslavish

$BTC is the single best investment opportunity in crypto today. Why? [a 🧵👇]

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Risk/Reward - this is the primary driver of any investment decision. We can currently calculate this as a 500 to 1 upside vs downside potential. How? Risk and Reward assessments & measurements.
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Risk Level 1: Business Execution Risk: The Math works. Algorithm super unlikely to falter or fail, nearly impossible to be replaced with better option, already solidifying place as world’s digital gold.

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Risk Level 2: External Risk: China banned mining but $BTC was virtually unaffected structurally, just kept working + other countries (el Salvatore, etc.) are adopting as official currency, & US IRS has already classified $BTC as an asset. Strong positive.

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Risk Level 3: Price Volatility Risk: Volatility is currently high, but will continue to decrease along with broadening of investor base just like gold did when it became a store of value - see @Forbes article here:

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forbes.com/sites/matthoug….

Risk Level 4: Price Downside Risk: Massive investor support has been demonstrated at the $30K level, making the downside 40% from $50K, far better and safer downside than any other cryptocurrency.

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Reward Level 1: Short Term - immediate cycle - reward is ~3-5X according to the most accurate model to date, the S2F model by PlanB @100trillionUSD

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Reward Level 2: Medium Term: 4 to 5 years S2F suggests 20x+ return in next cycle $1MM, easily justifying expected volatility of investment.

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Reward Level 3: Long Term: 200X S2F + mass adoption & expected long term inflationary pressures suggest $10M $BTC in the next decade (by ~2030)

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Conclusion: With downside risk limited (40% down) and long term upside potential quite high (200X), Risk/Reward is calculated to be 500 to 1.

Because of the limited risk factor, there is no better option in cryptocurrencies right now.

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