Thread by @DoomsdayDebunks

@DocLT2 Yes indeed. Many reinfections already, some within a few weeks. bnonews.com/index.php/2020…
Coronaviruses often reinfect. This shows infections of one individual by 4 coronaviruses from blood sample antibodies. Each black dot = inferred infection. nature.com/articles/s4159…
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@DocLT2 This is steady state after centuries to 1000 years evolution without vaccines.

With COVID it's only just leapt to humans.

This was written just before alpha was detected. In last sentence, didn't expect variants to evade immunity so soon with COVID.
nature.com/articles/s4159…
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@DocLT2 It's very limited data for coronavirus colds - they surely are just as complex as COVID and more so but we barely see the tip of the iceberg of the complexity.

This is some of the complex history that they knew so far as of 2006. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

@DocLT2 Sorry for inconsistent numbering. Anyway - I think vaccines are going to be needed for kids even if most get infected as may happen sadly in the UK - natural imunity never can reach herd immunity - and is likely short lived and new variants would go through them again soon.

@DocLT2 We likely have vaccines approved to age 6 months by the end of 2021.

I think all the UK gov's strategy is doing is replacing the first vaccine shot for many of them with natural infection (& sickness)

- which will need a booster within a few months or they will get it again.

@DocLT2 But with vaccination you can go way over the herd immunity threshold if we get an effective enough vaccine and >>90% effective vaccine seems feasible at 2nd / 3rd gen vaccines. And if not, at least keep cases very low as for measles in UK though not herd immunity, low prevalence.

@DocLT2 @threadreaderapp unroll

(just doing this to keep a record of the conversation not sure if it will work, may write up my replies in an article some time).

@DocLT2 @threadreaderapp It doesn't work as expected. Oh well, was worth a try.

@DocLT2 Another source on the possibliity P1 was reason for second surge - in Manaus, Amazonias.

Believed they achieved herd immunity - and relaxed and then second wave came along - which may have been P1 variant evading natural immunity of 1st wave.

scientificamerican.com/article/a-city…