Westminster gov. failed to bring the virus under control & is now preparing to remove the last few remaining measures that inhibit it from spreading even more widely amongst our only partially vaccinated population.

International COVID experts respond:
Almost 50,000 cases per day
Only half fully vaccinated.
Expect many millions infected over summer.
UK gov. has chosen to do this even though we have effective vaccines.

We ask experts to respond
New Zealand: Always looked to UK for leadership

Remarkable depth of scientific knowledge.

Remarkable clinical trials we are drawing on.

Incredible development of vaccines & rollout.

Astounded you are doing this despite amazing expertise you have in UK.
Vaccination is very effective, but only holds for a while.

Before, 7-9% had to go to hospital.
Now with delta it's 5-6%

When we look at the net gain on hospitalization from the vaccination, we end all the gains with one doubling.

As a global travel hub, any variant can spread to the world.

Absolutely sure, the UK contributed to the rise of delta in Europe and South America.
Always looked to the UK for sensible policies.
Unfortunately not the case for the COVID pandemic.

Certainly policies that release and open up a country with growing infections are counter productive in the extreme.

Dr Gabriel Scally - as they say in Belfast, a blind man on a fast horse can see this strategy does NOT have the support of scientists universally AT ALL.

I've been a public health doctor for 40 years and never heard of a public health strategy like this.
BBC asked what WHO think about the UK saying an exit wave in August is better than in September.

@DrMikeRyan said he doesn't believe that's their logic.

He called such a plan "moral emptiness and emotional stupidity"
Dr Mike Ryan explains later he honestly thinks deliberately permitting infection is not the aim

He is sure the excellent scientists that advise the UK health system, will open up very cautiously and be ready to adjust.

But is the UK opening up cautiously?
There is no reputable public health advisor of any kind who would recommend opening up when the virus is spreading rampantly.

It just defies logic, science of any kind.

What they are doing is stupid on public health terms and stupid for the economy.
Evidence from around the world: there is no trade off of public health and economy.

Right decisions for public health are right decisions for the economy.

What they are doing is stupid on public health terms and stupid for the economy.
To err is human, to persist is diabolical.

This approach was devastating in 2020 and is still devastating now.

You have to speak the truth to the public, and especially when you are such an important country and a scientific leader.

I've written I believe the strategy of herd immunity is actually murderous.

To continue in knowledge you are doing something that will lead to thousands & sometimes tens of thousands of people dying.

To continue to espouse that policy is unconscionable.
In Taiwanese culture, a saying: It is unethical to take umbrellas away from people while it's still raining.

It is politically unethical to take umbrellas away from people who don’t have raincoats, while it is still raining.

It is raining very hard ...

... I hope politicians will take this into consideration.

I hope politicians keep the umbrella for people who don’t have a raincoat

See letter in The Lancet, medics & scientists ask UK gov. to delay lifting all restrictions until most are vaccinated debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Letter-in-The-…
I hope in response to so many adverse comments from the WHO and internationally recognized COVID experts, our government will change direction and bring back the umbrellas - especially as they face the reality of increasing cases and hospitalizations over the next few weeks.
Our government does respond, slowly, to public attitudes. They must be getting hundreds of emails a day from distinguished professors asking to change direction.

But we can add to those voices by spreading awareness of what is happening.
Do share, & see:
science20.com/robert_walker/…
Science is moving forward in amazing ways. By autumn, we will have vaccines to target variants, and & through to 2022, 2nd and 3rd generation new vaccines.

We will get over this pandemic, WHO are sure of it, how fast we get there is up to us. debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/How-science-is…
Positive framing - we have seen an extraordinary pace of science development - we have never had such advanced capabilities to control a pandemic before.
debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Positive-frami…
We will get over this pandemic, there is light at the end of the tunnel, the WHO are sure of it. But how fast we get there is up to us.
debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/How-science-is…
Here is my blog post on Science 2.0 where I've embedded these videos along with summaries of the summit, and links to the main video for each section.

Do share, spread awareness, & help influence politicians & the public to be more careful and protect us science20.com/robert_walker/…
Please help spread awareness of what is happening. Encourage the public and government to give us back our umbrellas to protect us, while it continues to rain so very hard in the UK & around the world & so many don't have raincoats. Meanwhile #DOITALL. debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Lets-be-COVID-…
We will get over this pandemic, there is light at the end of the tunnel, the WHO are sure of it. But how fast we get there is up to us.
debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Light-at-the-e…
(Sorry wrong link earlier in thread)

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More from @DoomsdayDebunks

15 Jul
Headlines about solar storm headed for Earth are fake news. There was an X-class flare that caused some over the horizon radio blackouts on July 3 - few people use long wave radio now.

Tony Rice from NASA explains here:

wral.com/no-there-isn-t…
Solar flares and solar storms do nothing to the internet (connected via optical fibre) or cell phones (connected via direct microwave transmission). They can cause short term glitches in GPS.
Once per century solar storms may cause powercuts, in particular places depending on local geology and lengths of power lines, indistinguishable from ones we get anyway - surges could affect old model step up down transformers or near end of their life.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jul
The BBC tell us
1. exit wave is inevitable - FALSE
2. COVID is seasonal - during huge summer surge!
4. opening up now relieves pressure on the NHS in winter -higher estimates for summer hospitalization surge similar to H1N1 peak!

A mass of logical absurdities.
We are 50% unvaccinated. We need to finish that vaccination and also vaccinate down to adolescents - that's an extra 2 days for each year group at 400,000 doses a day. That gives far better immunity than natural infection and we are better prepared for the winter.
That's 2 days per age group for first dose then the same again 3 weeks later. Then we have masks, test trace isolate, physical distancing, ventilation, #DOITALL in ways that have no impact on economy as we open up carefully. Meanwhile by autumn we have vaccines that target delta.
Read 11 tweets
15 Jul
This is to help people who think the 4.9 C path or "business as usual" is still possible. Quotes a tweet from @Peters_Glen from 2019. Situation is the same today in 2021 and even more so.

debunkingdoomsday.quora.com/Why-the-busine…
His twitter thread discussing the 4.9 C path (RCP 8.5) is here


I refer to it as the 4.9 C path just because not many people know what RCP 8.5 means but that's technically more accurate, really a scenario of CO2 emissions with a narrative to motivate it.
The Paris Agreement is working. Carbon Action Tracker had this projection for 2100 in December 2018 just after the report on the difference between 1.5 and 2 C
Read 14 tweets
13 Jul
Latest government modelling of effect of step 4 of the road map. Very dependent on behaviour after July 19. If quickly go back to behaviour before pandemic, similar to January peak or higher.
This shows hypothetical effect of no interventions, no test trace, isolate, no personal behaviour changes to stop pandemic.
R amongst non vaccinated people.
blue = 7, purple = 5.5, green = 4.5, yellow = gradual change of R to 4.5.

Left =optimistic about vaccine effectiveness Image
Read 19 tweets
11 Jul
BBC asked what WHO think about the UK saying an exit wave in August is better than in September.

Dr Mike Ryan says he doesn't believe that's their logic.

@DrMikeRyan called such a plan "moral emptiness and emotional stupidity"

100% agree, will explain how I understand it.
Extract here:
Dr Mike Ryan explains later he honestly thinks deliberately permitting infection is not the aim

He is sure excellent scientists that advise the UK health system, will open up very cautiously and be ready to adjust.
However some people on Twitter and elsewhere, like that reporter, talk about an "exit wave" now rather than in September whatever the UK government policy is.

This is to explain what I think he meant by calling that moral emptiness and epidemiological stupidity.
Read 24 tweets
10 Jul
About the heat wave in Canada and the rapid climate model attribution. We are desert adapted animals. It's in our DNA, and what we need to change for heat waves is behaviour. Even elderly and babies have the biology to live in hot deserts so long as it's dry.
What we need for heat waves is to adapt our behaviour.

This is not instinctive. Desert people will learn from their community.
- drink lots of water!
- ventilation
- blinds or window reflectors
- stay in shade
- go somewhere cool
- air conditioning
redcross.org/get-help/how-t…
Although Lytton had record heat, it was also very dry, 15% humidity. Also though it was record heat in Lytton, temperatures above 40 C are not unusual. In dry summer conditions with Canadian long summer days and short nights, heat builds up in a heat trap far from the sea.
Read 27 tweets

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