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Jim Grace Profile picture
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8 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
So... £50 to £60Bn a year of tax rises / spending cuts to be phased in over the next few years.

Is it down to Brexit or Covid?

Firstly, lets get "debt repayment" off the table.
Yes, our apparent national debt is high - over 100% of GDP - but almost half is QE

1/
...for which the net interest paid by the government is zero (it pays the interest to itself) and the other half is currently enjoying the lowest gilt yields in history, meaning the *cost* of our national debt is tge liwest it has been in 300 years.

Our £350Bn Covid debt (QE)
costs literally nothing.

The true Covid cost is the economic "scarring": how much has it *permanently* knocked off GDP?

Answer: not much

uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/bank-of-e…
So how much has Brexit permanently knocked off GDP?

Answer: 6.7%. obr.uk/forecasts-in-d…

Which is £150Bn. Which would generate £55Bn Tax revenue. Which is exactly the amount Sunak's attack on the poor, the workers, the young and the vulnerable appears to be generating.

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More from @mac_puck

Jim Grace Profile picture
15 Sep
@vivamjm
I've kinda assumed the reason Frostie delayed the SPS checks on EU imports again is because we haven't built the infrastructure and trained the people; just another case of "incompetent Tories couldn't organise a piss-up in a brewery". What if it is more than that?

1/
What if it is actually an impossible task; that the nature of the imports actually makes it impossible? That it is feasible to do SPS checks on a dozen containers of frozen of lamb twice a year from New Zealand say, but it is just logistically impossible to do SPS checks on

2/
a mixed load of *fresh* chilled produce coming in on a ro-ro truck, half a dozen times a day? And that without even introducing full checks in Belfast and Larne yet, this EU border - handling imports for 1.8M people - was generating 25% of all "3rd country import" red tape

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
12 Sep
PROMISE:
£350M a week for the NHS
REALITY: £1,100M a week tax rises / spending cuts announced in 2021 to pay for Brexit damage.

PROMISE:
Take back control of immigration.
REALITY:
3000% increase in visa-less arrivals by small.

1/
PROMISE:
Sobwintee!
REALITY:
A border *within* the UK.

PROMISE:
All the fish in the sea!
REALITY:
A tiny in increase in quota... but the total loss of primary market. Oblivion for UK fishing.

PROMISE:
Cheaper food.
REALITY:
20-40% Increases... and empty shelves.

2/
PROMISE:
Better Trade deals
REALITY:
G'day Liz, you poms better bend over and brace yourselves.

PROMISE:
Global Brtain.
REALITY:
Global laughing stock.

PROMISE:
UK Gov will be more "accountable" than Brussels.
REALITY:
Mwahahaha-fckn-ha!

So, Brexiters, any regrets?

3/3
Read 4 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
7 Sep
Hey @bbclaurak @AndrewMarr9 @robertpeston how long do you think you can keep your viewers in the dark as to the REAL reason for the UK's biggest Tax hike in 28 years?

Every tax hike, every spending cut is a Brexit tax or a Brexit cut. Caused by Boris's Botched Brexit
Removing the fuel price cap
Cutting o/seas aid
Cutting UC £20/wk
Replacing EU regional & farm funds with 3x smaller
Scaling back HS2

Anyone can see what is happening.

There is a huge brexit-shaped hole in Gov finances and the Tories / BBC are calling it anything but Brexit.
Not to mention council tax rises theguardian.com/money/2021/feb…
Read 5 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
11 Aug
@peterjukes have you or @GeorgeMonbiot or @carolecadwalla written anything yet on lessons from Brexit in regard to decarbonisation?

The Tufton St gang changed the EU question from the economy, NI peace, UK power/influence into one of sobwintee, Turks, and health tourism.

1/
They knew what the answers to the first set of questions would be.

Now, in the decarbonisation debate they do not want the question to be: "Heat-pumps vs boilers" or "EV's vs gas-guzzlers" or "Offshore aerogenerators vs gas-fired power stations".

In all 3 cases the...

2/
...green option is far better for air quality and UK jobs (not to mention CO2 emissions) and the UK economy.

EV's are already cheaper in TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) than gas-guzzlers

Renewables have become cheaper per KWh than gas power stations.

HPs *will* be...

3/
Read 13 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
10 Aug
Mate, don't fall for the Tufton St propaganda. It is not expensive and not difficult.

Imagine the UK was a person who currently emits 100kg of CO2 per year.

32kg comes from heat. A bit of insulation retrofit plus switching to heat pumps saves 24kg

1/
28kg comes from driving. Changing from petrol/deisel to EV saves 21kg

23kg comes from Electricity generation. Changing to 100% renewable/nuclear saves 23kg... and saves the remaining 15kg HP and EV emissions.

Wow: we have saved 83 out of 100!

What's left?

2/
2kg from industry: steel, cement etc. Carbon capture and concrete alternatives maybe save 1kg.

13kg from farming. If you stop eating meat you *save 5kg

(*not really: I will come back to this)

And if you stop eating entirely you save 8kg.😉

3/
Read 6 tweets
Jim Grace Profile picture
6 Aug
The Koch anti-decarbonisation lobby have clearly chosen their attack line: affordability.

They will employ the following tricks:

1. Tot up capital costs but ignore running cost savings

2. Use out of date cost data, ignoring the plummeting costs of renewables and LZCs

1/
3. Quote their ridiculously inflated, 30-year cumulative cost (all "adds" and no "omits") as a single cost per household. To give the impression (a) householders will have to pay it and (b) pay it all in year 1. In reality, as with most infrastructure, the cost will be...

2/
Met with government borrowing at an interest rate of around 0.75% (gilts) or effectively 0% (QE - the interest goes back to the government). So "£100K per household" is in reality £40K borrowing per household"
and an annual interest payment of £300... but starting at £10 in

3/
Read 4 tweets

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