Thread by @KelseyDav

US Sec of State Blinken warned today that the US is getting "closer to the point at which a strict return to compliance with the #JCPOA does not reproduce the benefits that that agreement achieved"

That's not surprising given the bleak picture pained by the IAEA's new report 1/

The current IAEA monitoring situation is particularly serious. In addition to Iran's refusal to official clarify if the February 2021 special monitoring arrangement is still in place, Tehran has not responded to requests by the IAEA to access remote surveillance equipment. 2/

Under the Feb 2021 special arrangement, this equipment is recording information that will be given the IAEA if the JCPOA is restored. The data will ideally allow the IAEA to maintain knowledge about Iran's nuclear activities during the period when Iran limited inspector access.3/

The IAEA report says the equipment needs to be serviced & data storage replaced every three months - that date passed around Aug. 24, increasing the risk of lapses in data collection that could impede the IAEA's ability to reconstruct a record of Iran's nuclear activities. 4/

There is also a significant gap in the current data collection. The report notes that Iran removed four cameras from a centrifuge production facility in June after an incident. 5/ nytimes.com/2021/06/23/wor…

The IAEA has not been able to replace the cameras - that's a big blind spot. Furthermore, when the IAEA was allowed Sept. 4 to access the removed cameras, the data storage was not among the debris from one of the machines, which was destroyed The IAEA asked Iran to find it. 6/

The IAEA was also not able to check the data from the other 3 cameras. Is it recoverable? The agency may not know until/if the #IranDeal is restored.

In addition to disruptions to continuity of knowledge, this will likely drive speculation that Iran has something to hide. 7/

This radio silence from Iran on the IAEA's requests to clarify the status of the special monitoring arrangement & service the surveillance equipment is driving discussions about whether the IAEA Board should act next week to censure Iran. 8/

Raisi warned against IAEA Board action, saying an "unconstructive move" could disrupt efforts to negotiate the restoration of the 2015 nuclear deal.

But Tehran's actions are driving that discussion. It's unsurprising that IAEA Board member states are considering censure. 9/

The current monitoring situation is not sustainable & the IAEA Board members may feel compelled to act to support the agency & send a message to Iran.

Iran's failure to communicate & cooperate with the IAEA is also putting talks to restore the JCPOA at risk. 10/

The Sept. 7 IAEA report notes that "Iran’s failure to respond to the Agency’s requests for access
to its monitoring equipment is seriously compromising the Agency’s technical capability to maintain
continuity of knowledge" 11/

The report goes to say that the continuity of knowledge is "necessary for the Agency to resume its verification and monitoring of Iran’s nuclear-related commitments in the future."

That's a concerning assessment, & it will get worse if Iran's cooperation does not improve. 12/

There is still time to avert a crisis, but its critical that Raisi prioritize working with the IAEA to address these monitoring issues. He may think that ambiguity over Iran's nuclear program will give Iran more leverage in talks to restore the JCPOA. That a dangerous gamble. 13/

As Blinken reiterated today, the window for restoring the accord will not remain open forever. Gaps in monitoring could influence the US assessment as to whether or not the deal's nonpro benefits can be restored. 14/

A number of other nuclear factors will also influence that assessment. The Sept. 7 report noted progress on installation of equipment at Iran's uranium metal production facility. Stocks of uranium enriched to 20 & 60 percent also grew since May. 15/

While Iran has not made progress on planned IR-4 & IR-6 cascades, it is operating cascades of these machines & gathering performance data. This knowledge cannot be undone & must be taken into account when assessing the viability of restoring the nonpro benefits of the deal 16/

This progress again underscores the critical importance of the Raisi administration swiftly returning to talks in Vienna to restore the #IranDeal & building on progress made during the first six rounds. 17/

Raisi's rhetoric & the current trajectory of the nuclear program suggest he may try to drive a harder bargain to extract more sanctions relief &, in the process, overplay his hand or drag out talks past the point where the US thinks it's worth continuing. 18/

Undoubtably, the Trump administration manufactured this crisis when it withdrew from the #IranDeal without cause & reimposed sanctions on Iran in violation of the accord. 19/

But Iran is now prolonging this crisis & jeopardizing efforts to restore the #JCPOA. Hopefully Raisi changes course before the window closes. 19/19