Good morning: The Fed says US inequality costs the country nearly USD23trn since 1990.
But guess who is helping push that inequality higher??? Le Fed of course with its zero interest rate policy + quantitative easing (QE) to reduce the costs of risks for capitalists vs labor.👈🏻
Who is fueling asset prices in the US? The Fed. How? By making the cost of taking risks LOW. When that happens, people who have access to cheap credit /capital GAIN at the expense of LABOR as the increase is less than asset price.
So relative wealth WORSENS or inequality rises.
Who is responsible for inequality in the US? Well, many many factors. But the one institution that is the ONLY ONE THAT CAN CREATE THE SUPPLY OF MONEY has got to be responsible.
Why? Because the Fed determines the PRICE OF MONEY or the COSTS OF RISKS.
And now we have the SF Fed saying that INEQUALITY COSTS MONEY.
Of course it does. But the FED IS THE PERPETRATOR OF THAT INEQUALITY for the reasons I mentioned.
Not the savers. The savers ARE PUSHED TO INVEST by the Fed ZERO INTEREST RATE + QE. COSTS OF NOT INVESTING HIGH.
And so here we are today talking about whether the Fed should TAPER when CPI way past target & according to the IMF to be past the 2% target into END 2022.
Okay, we're not talking about the Fed RAISING INTEREST RATES AT THE SHORT END. We're talking about Fed buying less assetts.
Don't read the news as if it's the truth. That's the Fed version of the truth. ONLY THE FED CAN CREATE MONEY SUPPLY. And ONLY THE FED CAN SET THE PRICE OF MONEY, both short and longer end of interest rates.
It decides WHO GAINS through rates & relative increase of asset/wage.
Here is an article by the FT on the topic. Widely accepted that LOW INTEREST RATES REDUCES COSTS OF RISKS & push up ASSET PRICES.
Winners = ASSET OWNERS
Losers = NOT OWNING
Whether they are black/white/brown skinned is not key determinant. We all lose.
Good morning! All about inflation again! Dejavu! Okay, why? Well, look at US PPI, off the chart in August at 8.3%YoY on supply-side issues, from raw materials, to intermediates (chips!!!), to logistics, to labor costs.
So what? Well, what's next for CPI & le Fed regarding QE???
Eyes are on US CPI tomorrow - it is expected to rise on a month-on-month basis but decelerate on a YoY to 5.3%YoY.
While CPI may have peaked, don't expect it to fall down to le Fed 2% target anytime soon.
A lot of news about the Fed over the weekend. Mesters wants to taper!
If u think I'm being tough on the Fed & apparent disregard for its "data-dependency" and keep saying "temporary" and "transitory" while CPI heads north & GDP higher & asset inflation eroding average Americans' purchasing power, check this:
Interesting timing for the ECB as prices already rose rather high & now power prices rising further on higher costs! Rally for gas & coal.
Question: What is Germany #1 source of energy?
It is phasing out nuclear + coal.
Answer: Oil & natural gas.
Check this out: Energy consumption in Germany.
Look at solar and wind. Look at how much it increased by? And juxtapose that to the MASSIVE INCREASE OF NATURAL GAS.
It has consumed more natural gas from Russia. That smudge of solar + wind got a lot of press but man it's small.
Two things:
When people write about how "green" Germany is, they are not talking about German consumption of energy but SUPPLY. So look at below, that's Germany's production of "green" or <coal & >wind + >solar.
But its CONSUMPTION is more imported fossil fuel - Russian ones!👌🏻
Good morning! Have u heard? CPI rising in the EUR bloc! Yes! To 3% from 2.2% in July, far above expectations for 2.7% & moving past the ECB’s 2% target. 🔥
Not just food, oil but also industrial goods. Of course we still got negative rates because they want NOMINAL GDP!
Why?
In case u are wondering, this is where we are:
EUR bloc 3% YoY & the USA 5.4%.
Markets ignore this because central bankers are keeping rates low longer no matter what to keep nominal GDP higher to pay off gov debt!
Who pays? U! Through worse purchasing power!
And when I say u, I mean non-asset holders & wage earners because your wage is stagnant.
And by that I mean my generation the millennials and younger.
The older generation is pretty happy. They got higher valuation of real & financial assets 👏🏻!!!
Indonesia is the only economy in ASEAN-5 whose manufacturing exports is < less than its commodity export.
What does that mean? It's utilizing only its resource comparative advantage & leaving labor behind.
Another fact: SME employment > 90% of total. These 2 facts are linked.
And so it's difficult for me to speak of Indonesia because when I see its trade, it makes me a bit sad that it's not realizing its demographic potential by attracting more manufacturing FDI, which is looking for a home.
The flip side of this chart is INVESTMENT, which is weak.
Hi, shall we continue with Thailand structural trade? The baht has weakened a lot (-9%ytd) on what I can only call lack of good news, from Covid suppression to politics. Growth downwardly revised many times. That said, Thailand is turning the corner as it's changing strategy.
Thailand cases peaking & yesterday the gov announced that it will start easing some measures, meaning it is exiting ZeroCovid strategy even if vaccination is low.
Some good news on vaccines - it will likely acquire enough to finish by end 2021, still ways to go but end in sight
Thailand exports haven't risen much over the years as it focused more on tourism, a big mistake because tourism also very dependent on Chinese tourists that are not leaving China anytime soon.
While stagnated, still key in electronics + autos + agri.