Good morning: The Fed says US inequality costs the country nearly USD23trn since 1990.

But guess who is helping push that inequality higher??? Le Fed of course with its zero interest rate policy + quantitative easing (QE) to reduce the costs of risks for capitalists vs labor.👈🏻 Image
Who is fueling asset prices in the US? The Fed. How? By making the cost of taking risks LOW. When that happens, people who have access to cheap credit /capital GAIN at the expense of LABOR as the increase is less than asset price.

So relative wealth WORSENS or inequality rises. Image
Who is responsible for inequality in the US? Well, many many factors. But the one institution that is the ONLY ONE THAT CAN CREATE THE SUPPLY OF MONEY has got to be responsible.

Why? Because the Fed determines the PRICE OF MONEY or the COSTS OF RISKS.

kansascityfed.org/documents/8337… Image
And the Fed and its friends are working hard to BLAME everyone else but itself. Here is a paper posted by the Kansas Fed blaming RICH PEOPLE.

They are saying that it is the glut of savings by the rich that causes interest rates to go lower & not the Fed setting rates low.

Huh? Image
The well off just respond to incentives & got wealthy by not spending all their money & invest wisely. Are they to blame? Another discussion.

Let's look at the Fed mandate: 2% inflation & full employment.

CPI >4% in 2021 & GDP>6% & house price double digits.

Still ZIRP +QE👈🏻
Yesterday, the chief economist of the IMF says temporary or transitory is not even months of QUARTERS OR YEAR/S.

Meaning, they admit that the Fed has let inflation run high & banking on temporary but temporary is now, year, at least a year.

What??? The FED SETS INTEREST RATES.
That is what it does. It sets the SHORT END, and then creates incentives for market rates to be there.

For the longer end, it BUYS government bonds + MBS to keep rates low.

So what? IT SETS THE COSTS OF RISKS or the PRICE OF MONEY. And RISKS ARE LOW! So, CAPITALISTS GAIN. How?
The well-off DON'T SET INTEREST RATES. The Fed does. They GAIN because the Fed helps them REDUCE COSTS OF INVESTMENT & RAISE ASSET PRICES.

And the Fed knows the RICH DON'T SPEND. U don't get rich spending all ur money.

The middle class + poor do. So?

kansascityfed.org/documents/8337…
And now we have the SF Fed saying that INEQUALITY COSTS MONEY.

Of course it does. But the FED IS THE PERPETRATOR OF THAT INEQUALITY for the reasons I mentioned.

Not the savers. The savers ARE PUSHED TO INVEST by the Fed ZERO INTEREST RATE + QE. COSTS OF NOT INVESTING HIGH.
And so here we are today talking about whether the Fed should TAPER when CPI way past target & according to the IMF to be past the 2% target into END 2022.

Okay, we're not talking about the Fed RAISING INTEREST RATES AT THE SHORT END. We're talking about Fed buying less assetts.
Don't read the news as if it's the truth. That's the Fed version of the truth. ONLY THE FED CAN CREATE MONEY SUPPLY. And ONLY THE FED CAN SET THE PRICE OF MONEY, both short and longer end of interest rates.

It decides WHO GAINS through rates & relative increase of asset/wage.
Here is an article by the FT on the topic. Widely accepted that LOW INTEREST RATES REDUCES COSTS OF RISKS & push up ASSET PRICES.

Winners = ASSET OWNERS
Losers = NOT OWNING

Whether they are black/white/brown skinned is not key determinant. We all lose.

ft.com/content/577306…

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More from @Trinhnomics

13 Sep
Good morning! All about inflation again! Dejavu! Okay, why? Well, look at US PPI, off the chart in August at 8.3%YoY on supply-side issues, from raw materials, to intermediates (chips!!!), to logistics, to labor costs.

So what? Well, what's next for CPI & le Fed regarding QE??? Image
Eyes are on US CPI tomorrow - it is expected to rise on a month-on-month basis but decelerate on a YoY to 5.3%YoY.

While CPI may have peaked, don't expect it to fall down to le Fed 2% target anytime soon.

A lot of news about the Fed over the weekend. Mesters wants to taper! Image
If u think I'm being tough on the Fed & apparent disregard for its "data-dependency" and keep saying "temporary" and "transitory" while CPI heads north & GDP higher & asset inflation eroding average Americans' purchasing power, check this:

THEY PROFIT.

reuters.com/business/finan…
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
Interesting timing for the ECB as prices already rose rather high & now power prices rising further on higher costs! Rally for gas & coal.

Question: What is Germany #1 source of energy?
It is phasing out nuclear + coal.

Answer: Oil & natural gas. Image
Check this out: Energy consumption in Germany.

Look at solar and wind. Look at how much it increased by? And juxtapose that to the MASSIVE INCREASE OF NATURAL GAS.

It has consumed more natural gas from Russia. That smudge of solar + wind got a lot of press but man it's small. Image
Two things:

When people write about how "green" Germany is, they are not talking about German consumption of energy but SUPPLY. So look at below, that's Germany's production of "green" or <coal & >wind + >solar.

But its CONSUMPTION is more imported fossil fuel - Russian ones!👌🏻 Image
Read 7 tweets
2 Sep
Good morning! You know what makes me really happy??? Really really happy?

OK, a bit nerdy, but I saw my ASEAN supply chain report in the US manufacturing ISM report. Predicted it!

US Manufacturing off the chart but SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES PLENTIFUL, esp CHIPS FROM MALAYSIA 🇲🇾🇺🇸🚗
US ISM manufacturing overnight:

Rose to 59.9 on new orders, production, etc. So it's doing relatively well in comparison to Asia PMI (China was 49.2) but THOSE 2 THINGS ARE LINKED.

Meaning, US doesn't have demand problems but has SUPPLY. ISM could have been even higher!!
US ISM manufacturing is an index made up of sub-indices. And if u look at demand (new orders, new export orders etc), it's UP! ⏫⏫⏫

But the US got supply issues, as u can see by backlog of orders ⏫⏫⏫(negative as DEMAND>SUPPLY) & employment ⏬⏬⏬(negative as DEMAND >SUPPLY)
Read 5 tweets
1 Sep
Good morning! Have u heard? CPI rising in the EUR bloc! Yes! To 3% from 2.2% in July, far above expectations for 2.7% & moving past the ECB’s 2% target. 🔥

Not just food, oil but also industrial goods. Of course we still got negative rates because they want NOMINAL GDP!

Why?
In case u are wondering, this is where we are:

EUR bloc 3% YoY & the USA 5.4%.

Markets ignore this because central bankers are keeping rates low longer no matter what to keep nominal GDP higher to pay off gov debt!

Who pays? U! Through worse purchasing power!
And when I say u, I mean non-asset holders & wage earners because your wage is stagnant.

And by that I mean my generation the millennials and younger.

The older generation is pretty happy. They got higher valuation of real & financial assets 👏🏻!!!
Read 4 tweets
30 Aug
Morning, as promised, we'll talk about Indonesia, which is in the news for the central bank monetization (private placement of gov debt).

But the big story on Indonesia is always how weak its manufacturing exports is. How weak you ask? Well, only USD75bn for a trillion eco.🇮🇩
Indonesia is the only economy in ASEAN-5 whose manufacturing exports is < less than its commodity export.

What does that mean? It's utilizing only its resource comparative advantage & leaving labor behind.

Another fact: SME employment > 90% of total. These 2 facts are linked.
And so it's difficult for me to speak of Indonesia because when I see its trade, it makes me a bit sad that it's not realizing its demographic potential by attracting more manufacturing FDI, which is looking for a home.

The flip side of this chart is INVESTMENT, which is weak.
Read 7 tweets
25 Aug
Hi, shall we continue with Thailand structural trade? The baht has weakened a lot (-9%ytd) on what I can only call lack of good news, from Covid suppression to politics. Growth downwardly revised many times. That said, Thailand is turning the corner as it's changing strategy.
Thailand cases peaking & yesterday the gov announced that it will start easing some measures, meaning it is exiting ZeroCovid strategy even if vaccination is low.

Some good news on vaccines - it will likely acquire enough to finish by end 2021, still ways to go but end in sight
Thailand exports haven't risen much over the years as it focused more on tourism, a big mistake because tourism also very dependent on Chinese tourists that are not leaving China anytime soon.

While stagnated, still key in electronics + autos + agri.
Read 6 tweets

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