Interesting timing for the ECB as prices already rose rather high & now power prices rising further on higher costs! Rally for gas & coal.
Question: What is Germany #1 source of energy?
It is phasing out nuclear + coal.
Answer: Oil & natural gas.
Check this out: Energy consumption in Germany.
Look at solar and wind. Look at how much it increased by? And juxtapose that to the MASSIVE INCREASE OF NATURAL GAS.
It has consumed more natural gas from Russia. That smudge of solar + wind got a lot of press but man it's small.
Two things:
When people write about how "green" Germany is, they are not talking about German consumption of energy but SUPPLY. So look at below, that's Germany's production of "green" or <coal & >wind + >solar.
But its CONSUMPTION is more imported fossil fuel - Russian ones!👌🏻
Okay, some people don't like that the renewable part of "consumption" misconstrues the source of energy supply as a lot of domestic electricity produced by wind + solar.
Here it is showing sources of energy supply. Natural gas supply has gone up & they're imported from Russia.
If u want to write a good story on energy consumption or supply in Germany then: Consumption has gone down & production of renewables have gone up vs coal & nuclear.
Dig deeper then u see total energy supply of renewable small, even if higher, & natural gas 🇷🇺dependency higher👌🏻
Back to that Bbg story:
a) While renewables have increased in share of total power generation to 41%, natural gas is 17% & coal is still 26% (Lignite + hard coal).
b)If natural gas price goes up = electricity price goes up
Electricity is not #1 source of energy, oil & gas are👈🏻
In other words, the rise of commodity prices, particularly natural gas, is pushing up input costs, including but not limited to electricity prices.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Good morning! All about inflation again! Dejavu! Okay, why? Well, look at US PPI, off the chart in August at 8.3%YoY on supply-side issues, from raw materials, to intermediates (chips!!!), to logistics, to labor costs.
So what? Well, what's next for CPI & le Fed regarding QE???
Eyes are on US CPI tomorrow - it is expected to rise on a month-on-month basis but decelerate on a YoY to 5.3%YoY.
While CPI may have peaked, don't expect it to fall down to le Fed 2% target anytime soon.
A lot of news about the Fed over the weekend. Mesters wants to taper!
If u think I'm being tough on the Fed & apparent disregard for its "data-dependency" and keep saying "temporary" and "transitory" while CPI heads north & GDP higher & asset inflation eroding average Americans' purchasing power, check this:
Good morning: The Fed says US inequality costs the country nearly USD23trn since 1990.
But guess who is helping push that inequality higher??? Le Fed of course with its zero interest rate policy + quantitative easing (QE) to reduce the costs of risks for capitalists vs labor.👈🏻
Who is fueling asset prices in the US? The Fed. How? By making the cost of taking risks LOW. When that happens, people who have access to cheap credit /capital GAIN at the expense of LABOR as the increase is less than asset price.
So relative wealth WORSENS or inequality rises.
Who is responsible for inequality in the US? Well, many many factors. But the one institution that is the ONLY ONE THAT CAN CREATE THE SUPPLY OF MONEY has got to be responsible.
Why? Because the Fed determines the PRICE OF MONEY or the COSTS OF RISKS.
Good morning! Have u heard? CPI rising in the EUR bloc! Yes! To 3% from 2.2% in July, far above expectations for 2.7% & moving past the ECB’s 2% target. 🔥
Not just food, oil but also industrial goods. Of course we still got negative rates because they want NOMINAL GDP!
Why?
In case u are wondering, this is where we are:
EUR bloc 3% YoY & the USA 5.4%.
Markets ignore this because central bankers are keeping rates low longer no matter what to keep nominal GDP higher to pay off gov debt!
Who pays? U! Through worse purchasing power!
And when I say u, I mean non-asset holders & wage earners because your wage is stagnant.
And by that I mean my generation the millennials and younger.
The older generation is pretty happy. They got higher valuation of real & financial assets 👏🏻!!!
Indonesia is the only economy in ASEAN-5 whose manufacturing exports is < less than its commodity export.
What does that mean? It's utilizing only its resource comparative advantage & leaving labor behind.
Another fact: SME employment > 90% of total. These 2 facts are linked.
And so it's difficult for me to speak of Indonesia because when I see its trade, it makes me a bit sad that it's not realizing its demographic potential by attracting more manufacturing FDI, which is looking for a home.
The flip side of this chart is INVESTMENT, which is weak.
Hi, shall we continue with Thailand structural trade? The baht has weakened a lot (-9%ytd) on what I can only call lack of good news, from Covid suppression to politics. Growth downwardly revised many times. That said, Thailand is turning the corner as it's changing strategy.
Thailand cases peaking & yesterday the gov announced that it will start easing some measures, meaning it is exiting ZeroCovid strategy even if vaccination is low.
Some good news on vaccines - it will likely acquire enough to finish by end 2021, still ways to go but end in sight
Thailand exports haven't risen much over the years as it focused more on tourism, a big mistake because tourism also very dependent on Chinese tourists that are not leaving China anytime soon.
While stagnated, still key in electronics + autos + agri.