Share this page!

Trinh Profile picture
Twitter logo
13 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Good morning! All about inflation again! Dejavu! Okay, why? Well, look at US PPI, off the chart in August at 8.3%YoY on supply-side issues, from raw materials, to intermediates (chips!!!), to logistics, to labor costs.

So what? Well, what's next for CPI & le Fed regarding QE??? Image
Eyes are on US CPI tomorrow - it is expected to rise on a month-on-month basis but decelerate on a YoY to 5.3%YoY.

While CPI may have peaked, don't expect it to fall down to le Fed 2% target anytime soon.

A lot of news about the Fed over the weekend. Mesters wants to taper! Image
If u think I'm being tough on the Fed & apparent disregard for its "data-dependency" and keep saying "temporary" and "transitory" while CPI heads north & GDP higher & asset inflation eroding average Americans' purchasing power, check this:

THEY PROFIT.

reuters.com/business/finan…
Headline from every newspaper: Fed credibility under fire!!!

Of course you should be vigilant and understand how money is created because this is insane that these people that influence asset price ACTIVELY TRADED!

Talk about conflict of interest!

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with Trinh

Trinh Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Trinhnomics

Trinh Profile picture
9 Sep
Good morning: The Fed says US inequality costs the country nearly USD23trn since 1990.

But guess who is helping push that inequality higher??? Le Fed of course with its zero interest rate policy + quantitative easing (QE) to reduce the costs of risks for capitalists vs labor.👈🏻 Image
Who is fueling asset prices in the US? The Fed. How? By making the cost of taking risks LOW. When that happens, people who have access to cheap credit /capital GAIN at the expense of LABOR as the increase is less than asset price.

So relative wealth WORSENS or inequality rises. Image
Who is responsible for inequality in the US? Well, many many factors. But the one institution that is the ONLY ONE THAT CAN CREATE THE SUPPLY OF MONEY has got to be responsible.

Why? Because the Fed determines the PRICE OF MONEY or the COSTS OF RISKS.

kansascityfed.org/documents/8337… Image
Read 12 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
6 Sep
Interesting timing for the ECB as prices already rose rather high & now power prices rising further on higher costs! Rally for gas & coal.

Question: What is Germany #1 source of energy?
It is phasing out nuclear + coal.

Answer: Oil & natural gas. Image
Check this out: Energy consumption in Germany.

Look at solar and wind. Look at how much it increased by? And juxtapose that to the MASSIVE INCREASE OF NATURAL GAS.

It has consumed more natural gas from Russia. That smudge of solar + wind got a lot of press but man it's small. Image
Two things:

When people write about how "green" Germany is, they are not talking about German consumption of energy but SUPPLY. So look at below, that's Germany's production of "green" or <coal & >wind + >solar.

But its CONSUMPTION is more imported fossil fuel - Russian ones!👌🏻 Image
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
2 Sep
Good morning! You know what makes me really happy??? Really really happy?

OK, a bit nerdy, but I saw my ASEAN supply chain report in the US manufacturing ISM report. Predicted it!

US Manufacturing off the chart but SUPPLY CHAIN ISSUES PLENTIFUL, esp CHIPS FROM MALAYSIA 🇲🇾🇺🇸🚗
US ISM manufacturing overnight:

Rose to 59.9 on new orders, production, etc. So it's doing relatively well in comparison to Asia PMI (China was 49.2) but THOSE 2 THINGS ARE LINKED.

Meaning, US doesn't have demand problems but has SUPPLY. ISM could have been even higher!!
US ISM manufacturing is an index made up of sub-indices. And if u look at demand (new orders, new export orders etc), it's UP! ⏫⏫⏫

But the US got supply issues, as u can see by backlog of orders ⏫⏫⏫(negative as DEMAND>SUPPLY) & employment ⏬⏬⏬(negative as DEMAND >SUPPLY)
Read 5 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
1 Sep
Good morning! Have u heard? CPI rising in the EUR bloc! Yes! To 3% from 2.2% in July, far above expectations for 2.7% & moving past the ECB’s 2% target. 🔥

Not just food, oil but also industrial goods. Of course we still got negative rates because they want NOMINAL GDP!

Why?
In case u are wondering, this is where we are:

EUR bloc 3% YoY & the USA 5.4%.

Markets ignore this because central bankers are keeping rates low longer no matter what to keep nominal GDP higher to pay off gov debt!

Who pays? U! Through worse purchasing power!
And when I say u, I mean non-asset holders & wage earners because your wage is stagnant.

And by that I mean my generation the millennials and younger.

The older generation is pretty happy. They got higher valuation of real & financial assets 👏🏻!!!
Read 4 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
30 Aug
Morning, as promised, we'll talk about Indonesia, which is in the news for the central bank monetization (private placement of gov debt).

But the big story on Indonesia is always how weak its manufacturing exports is. How weak you ask? Well, only USD75bn for a trillion eco.🇮🇩
Indonesia is the only economy in ASEAN-5 whose manufacturing exports is < less than its commodity export.

What does that mean? It's utilizing only its resource comparative advantage & leaving labor behind.

Another fact: SME employment > 90% of total. These 2 facts are linked.
And so it's difficult for me to speak of Indonesia because when I see its trade, it makes me a bit sad that it's not realizing its demographic potential by attracting more manufacturing FDI, which is looking for a home.

The flip side of this chart is INVESTMENT, which is weak.
Read 7 tweets
Trinh Profile picture
25 Aug
Hi, shall we continue with Thailand structural trade? The baht has weakened a lot (-9%ytd) on what I can only call lack of good news, from Covid suppression to politics. Growth downwardly revised many times. That said, Thailand is turning the corner as it's changing strategy.
Thailand cases peaking & yesterday the gov announced that it will start easing some measures, meaning it is exiting ZeroCovid strategy even if vaccination is low.

Some good news on vaccines - it will likely acquire enough to finish by end 2021, still ways to go but end in sight
Thailand exports haven't risen much over the years as it focused more on tourism, a big mistake because tourism also very dependent on Chinese tourists that are not leaving China anytime soon.

While stagnated, still key in electronics + autos + agri.
Read 6 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get emails when @Trinhnomics has new unrolls!

Check out other threads from @Trinhnomics!

Read all threads by @Trinhnomics

:(