@UrbaneSlave @AhoFrank @Rachael_Swindon 1/ #Starmer's positive personal approval ratings were the cause of a huge amount of complacency when he first became leader. What was overlooked was that, even at the start, they were in decline. There was a collision between expectations and reality...
@UrbaneSlave @AhoFrank @Rachael_Swindon 2/The more he supported the Tories, the lower is ratings got until they tanked completely. I was clear in 2020 that Labour was not benefitting from Tory errors over #Covid_19 due to #Starmer's position of support for the Government. This was ignored to #Labour's detriment.
@UrbaneSlave @AhoFrank @Rachael_Swindon 3/ Bear in mind that the "20 points ahead" argument that advocated #Starmer as leader was based on a real trend of oppositions - particularly Labour - results are worse in real elections than mid term polling. Historically, Government's that are slightly behind go on to win.
@UrbaneSlave @AhoFrank @Rachael_Swindon 4/4. The 2% Labour lead will not concern the Tories. It's not particularly worrying at this stage in the parliament. The 5% drop in their own support is more of a concern for them.
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