#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Fri 9 Sep

Leading indicators continue to show accelerating spread of infection.

7-day average Test Positivity 11.73% against all-time record 11.75%.

Severe Outcomes: Hospital, ICU and Death all surging faster than ever. Obviously NOT Decoupled.
ICU Capacity taking a huge hit.

169 Albertans just with COVID-19, against total ICU capacity for all needs 173.

Look at the difference two days makes on the curve. See also comparison to AHS CEO Dr Yiu charts on 17 May 2021.
Great presentation by Sarah Mackey of @ab_vax who teaches that we can't just look at the unvaccinated as one big blob, and just write them off.

IIRC, she says we have to look at different reasons:
• Access
• Complacency
• Hesitancy

And count the removal of barriers, not 💉
@ab_vax Working from AB Health's published stats, I provide this Vaccine Effectiveness by share of population.
• Fully Vax, Partly Vax, No Vax
• Hospital & ICU Case Rates
• Risk Ratio (how much lower your risk as you get your shots)
• Odds Ratio (how much worse than fully vax).
Correction: 54 Albertans died of Covid-19 in the last week, not 49 as I had shown earlier.

Tied with Ontario.

Alberta's 12% of 🇨🇦 population has 33% of the Deaths.

Revised scorecard & graphs here.

New graph at @ucalgaryCHI that will make Dr @FionaMattatall @DrJenGunter livid with me 🙃 if I do not mention.

"This is the number of COVID cases over the number of women who have delivered in Alberta. Both values are adjusted per 100,000 people."

Ack. Typo on the Date of my Scorecard.

Today is Friday 10 September.

Based on #COVID19AB stats published by GoA for the day ending Thursday 9 September.
Where US President Biden is referring to Republican Governors, he could have included Premier Kenney of Alberta.

Where he says “Look at the polling numbers”, please do.


Premier Kenney’s grotesque mishandling of #COVID19AB could knock UCP out of power.

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More from @ZiadFazel

14 Sep
Last night @CMOH_Alberta gave a presentation to Alberta family docs, and I got a chance to see it and take screenshots before the video was set to Private.

Whenever a politician wants to give you "Context", be wary of Deceptive Framing.

Have a look at her graphs of BC/AB/SK.
Did you do that yet? No skipping ahead now.

I zoomed in for you.

See it yet?

The axis scales are not the same.
Here are the graphs exactly how they look at


The default shows every province on the same axis for fairness.

See that green "Relative scale". That compares each province to its own peak.

Click it. Gosh - every province looks equally bad now.
Read 8 tweets
13 Sep
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
13 Sep 21

We're all interested in ICU, but I'll stay consistent with giving all metrics, including signals from Leading Metrics which end up in Severe Outcomes.

Test Positivity has paused at an all-time pandemic record just above 3rd Wave Peak.
@jvipondmd @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @TehseenLadha @drdagly @shazmamithani @kwburak @plasercalgary @noelgibney @dupuisj Looking at R for Alberta, we can see the "gas pedal" of R has eased up a bit, but still stays above 1.0, which means still accelerating with exponential growth of COVID-19.

The damage was done in July with that steep rise of R > 1.2 during & after Stampede.
I'm sticking with Leading Indicators of the spread of #COVID19AB, because They. Lead. To. Severe. Outcomes, including Death.

You can't grow ICU Capacity to match exponential growth. You have to stop the spread up front to give your healthcare system a chance, Public + Private.
Read 16 tweets
12 Sep
Sadly, today is the day we exceed Alberta's baseline ICU Capacity.

• Blue Exponential Growth Curve = Albertans in ICU with COVID-19
• Red line = Baseline Capacity
• Surge Capacity comes from Cancelling Surgeries & Redeploying Doctors, Nurses, other Healthcare Workers
I don't normally do one graph inset into another, but I wanted to show @GosiaGasperoPhD modelled this exactly, on 24 August.

She's a world-class biologist who could be doing this anywhere in the world, saying "Look what is happening over there in AB."

Instead, she's here in Calgary, volunteering her expertise late at night (eg 12.36am for this tweet) to help our province.

And she's wiping the floor with Alberta Health's CMOH team, even though they have access to internal data and high-end computers.

Read 8 tweets
10 Sep
Big news about COVID-19 Vaccinations in US, UK and Canada to share before @PopAlberta explains this live today at 4pm.

The news is about vaccine mandates, passports, and 3rd doses.

Let's start with Dr Fauci speaking to Americans on @NewsHour, on which we Canadians eavesdrop because:
• he's world class
• Covid in Canada is like a lot of American states
• Alberta (and BC & SK) are like the worst of American states

Then, Dr Fauci gave the 2021 Pumphandle Lecture to @JohnSnowSociety in UK.

See summary from UK Public Health Doc @GabrielScally with some clips of key points, and then the link to full 1-hour lecture.

You & I can get this whether you have a PhD or not.

Read 5 tweets
10 Sep
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Thu 8 Sep

Slivers of silver lining in Leading Indicators.

I don't trade stocks, but technical analysts seeing that choppiness at top of Test Positivity would say there is a pause.

Not testing enough. Averaging 3/5th the volume of previous peaks.
Severe Outcomes? 😢

Alberta (4.4m people) might soon pass Ontario (14.7m) in Canadians dying of COVID-19 per week.

12% of 🇨🇦population; 32% of the deaths.


Every time I change the axes on my graph, I remember these are families suffering, and grieving.
The number of Albertans going to Hospital & ICU for COVID-19 is exploding, and our healthcare workers are throwing themselves on the blast to try to save us.

One day's data on ICU projection:
• Yesterday: cross baseline on 13 Sep, 250 on 21 Sep
• Today: 12 Sep; 19 Sep
Read 9 tweets
9 Sep
#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
Wed 8 Sep

Silver lining on dark clouds today:
• Looks like leading indicators have paused a bit
• Severe outcomes still out of control
• Albertans are going to Hospital and ICU, and Dying at levels not seen since 3rd Wave Peak in May.
I think as a province we're beaten down, and looking for compassionate & trustworthy leadership.

We went into July thinking this would be a turnaround summer. It turned the wrong way.

So enjoy good news when you can. R < 1.1 for first time since mid-July, and Test % Stalled.
Because Severe Outcomes - real people in pain - Ouch.

More Canadians have died from Covid in AB than in any other province but ON:
• 42 in the last 7 days
• 69 in the last 14 days

ICUs are over capacity, causing widespread backups and consequences.

Read 7 tweets

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