Leading indicators continue to show accelerating spread of infection.
7-day average Test Positivity 11.73% against all-time record 11.75%.
Severe Outcomes: Hospital, ICU and Death all surging faster than ever. Obviously NOT Decoupled.
ICU Capacity taking a huge hit.
169 Albertans just with COVID-19, against total ICU capacity for all needs 173.
Look at the difference two days makes on the curve. See also comparison to AHS CEO Dr Yiu charts on 17 May 2021.
Great presentation by Sarah Mackey of @ab_vax who teaches that we can't just look at the unvaccinated as one big blob, and just write them off.
IIRC, she says we have to look at different reasons:
• Access
• Complacency
• Hesitancy
And count the removal of barriers, not 💉
@ab_vax Working from AB Health's published stats, I provide this Vaccine Effectiveness by share of population.
• Fully Vax, Partly Vax, No Vax
• Hospital & ICU Case Rates
• Risk Ratio (how much lower your risk as you get your shots)
• Odds Ratio (how much worse than fully vax).
Correction: 54 Albertans died of Covid-19 in the last week, not 49 as I had shown earlier.
Tied with Ontario.
Alberta's 12% of 🇨🇦 population has 33% of the Deaths.
Last night @CMOH_Alberta gave a presentation to Alberta family docs, and I got a chance to see it and take screenshots before the video was set to Private.
Whenever a politician wants to give you "Context", be wary of Deceptive Framing.
The damage was done in July with that steep rise of R > 1.2 during & after Stampede.
I'm sticking with Leading Indicators of the spread of #COVID19AB, because They. Lead. To. Severe. Outcomes, including Death.
You can't grow ICU Capacity to match exponential growth. You have to stop the spread up front to give your healthcare system a chance, Public + Private.
Sadly, today is the day we exceed Alberta's baseline ICU Capacity.
Again.
• Blue Exponential Growth Curve = Albertans in ICU with COVID-19
• Red line = Baseline Capacity
• Surge Capacity comes from Cancelling Surgeries & Redeploying Doctors, Nurses, other Healthcare Workers
I don't normally do one graph inset into another, but I wanted to show @GosiaGasperoPhD modelled this exactly, on 24 August.
She's a world-class biologist who could be doing this anywhere in the world, saying "Look what is happening over there in AB."
Big news about COVID-19 Vaccinations in US, UK and Canada to share before @PopAlberta explains this live today at 4pm.
The news is about vaccine mandates, passports, and 3rd doses.
Let's start with Dr Fauci speaking to Americans on @NewsHour, on which we Canadians eavesdrop because:
• he's world class
• Covid in Canada is like a lot of American states
• Alberta (and BC & SK) are like the worst of American states
Every time I change the axes on my graph, I remember these are families suffering, and grieving.
The number of Albertans going to Hospital & ICU for COVID-19 is exploding, and our healthcare workers are throwing themselves on the blast to try to save us.
One day's data on ICU projection:
• Yesterday: cross baseline on 13 Sep, 250 on 21 Sep
• Today: 12 Sep; 19 Sep
Silver lining on dark clouds today:
• Looks like leading indicators have paused a bit
• Severe outcomes still out of control
• Albertans are going to Hospital and ICU, and Dying at levels not seen since 3rd Wave Peak in May.
I think as a province we're beaten down, and looking for compassionate & trustworthy leadership.
We went into July thinking this would be a turnaround summer. It turned the wrong way.
So enjoy good news when you can. R < 1.1 for first time since mid-July, and Test % Stalled.
Because Severe Outcomes - real people in pain - Ouch.
More Canadians have died from Covid in AB than in any other province but ON:
• 42 in the last 7 days
• 69 in the last 14 days
ICUs are over capacity, causing widespread backups and consequences.