Thread by @ZiadFazel

Sadly, today is the day we exceed Alberta's baseline ICU Capacity.

Again.
• Blue Exponential Growth Curve = Albertans in ICU with COVID-19
• Red line = Baseline Capacity
• Surge Capacity comes from Cancelling Surgeries & Redeploying Doctors, Nurses, other Healthcare Workers

I don't normally do one graph inset into another, but I wanted to show @GosiaGasperoPhD modelled this exactly, on 24 August.

She's a world-class biologist who could be doing this anywhere in the world, saying "Look what is happening over there in AB."

https://twitter.com/GosiaGasperoPhD/status/1430418833152503811

Instead, she's here in Calgary, volunteering her expertise late at night (eg 12.36am for this tweet) to help our province.

And she's wiping the floor with Alberta Health's CMOH team, even though they have access to internal data and high-end computers.

alberta.ca/assets/documen…

Fair comparison?
• CMOH team working full time, with technical and epidemiological help, in late June saying we'd have ~67 in ICU now
• 1 biologist working alone on a home computer in late August, saying we'd have ~173 people with COVID-19 in ICU now.

So let's zoom in some more to see the problem:
• on 8 July, when Alberta Cabinet approved the CMOH recommendations to dismantle TTI
• CMOH model said ~ 12 in ICU, going down
• Reality was we had about 32 in ICU, going sideways

Yet Cabinet still approved dismantling TTI.

So when I see @Drew__Barnes, @AngelaPittAB and other rural MPs get frustrated that COVID-19 is not over, it isn't because THEY deny it exists.

It is because the Premier & CMOH's circles pretended it wasn't serious.

So did the replacement Caucus Chair.

cbc.ca/news/canada/ca…

And for those saying "Yabut she said we'd have 2000 Cases/Day now"
• We're doing half the test volume
• Contact tracing was stopped on 29 July
• We're still getting 1500 Cases

Severe Outcomes are happening full blast..

..but Case Count is "Decoupled" by Sneaky Suppression.

Those beautiful* graphs (and more) are courtesy @ucalgaryCHI, who keep making their site better every week.

covid-tracker.chi-csm.ca

* I've used pen plotters since University engineering. I think such graphs are as beautiful as fancy new visuals from graphics specialists.