Thread by @ZiadFazel

#COVID19AB Balanced Scorecard
13 Sep 21

We're all interested in ICU, but I'll stay consistent with giving all metrics, including signals from Leading Metrics which end up in Severe Outcomes.

Test Positivity has paused at an all-time pandemic record just above 3rd Wave Peak.

@jvipondmd @GosiaGasperoPhD @RajBhardwajMD @TehseenLadha @drdagly @shazmamithani @kwburak @plasercalgary @noelgibney @dupuisj Looking at R for Alberta, we can see the "gas pedal" of R has eased up a bit, but still stays above 1.0, which means still accelerating with exponential growth of COVID-19.

The damage was done in July with that steep rise of R > 1.2 during & after Stampede.

I'm sticking with Leading Indicators of the spread of #COVID19AB, because They. Lead. To. Severe. Outcomes, including Death.

You can't grow ICU Capacity to match exponential growth. You have to stop the spread up front to give your healthcare system a chance, Public + Private.

See R in and within AB, from my friend @Mrhockey1231, who graphs R from Ontario biostatiscian @imgrund, who voluntarily covers across Canada daily.

R > 1.1 from March to May = 3rd Wave.
R > 1.2 in July + R > 1.1 in Aug & Sep = Worse 4th Wave

https://twitter.com/Mrhockey1231/status/1437418779726647297?s=20

@Mrhockey1231 @imgrund U of C's Wastewater Sampling helps show momentum of COVID-19AB in Calgary, a day after infection, 5ish days before positive swab.

@imgrund Calgary R does same thing, but more subtly given AB Health suppressing swab testing.

Little uptick in R to 1.19 + Big 💩momentum =
😱

@Mrhockey1231 @imgrund Total Hospitalization: ICU + non-ICU, which Docs & Nurses often call "The Wards".

We've blown away 3rd Wave. Now nearing peak of 2nd Wave, when there was no vaccine.

The Wards all over Hospital from where we're dragging staff into ICU, away from the patients who need them too.

Health Canada counts 🇨🇦 in Hospital, ICU and on Ventilators every week.

91% of the growth in Hospitalization (ICU + non-ICU) across 🇨🇦 in wk ending 7 Sep 2021 was from Alberta.

On 7 Sep: 🇨🇦 in Hospital 1070, ICU 533
On 12 Sep: AB Hospital 803, ICU 198.

https://twitter.com/ZiadFazel/status/1437254445692186625?s=20

Now, ICU.

I've been trying to multitask between @PopAlberta video and this thread. Today's focus is ICU with a physician and nurse as special guests with @jvipondmd & @GermHunterMD.

Please watch it today, and previous episodes.

@PopAlberta @jvipondmd @GermHunterMD Situation in ICU as of Sunday 12 Sep.

The donut graph is vax status.

When AHS CEO Dr Verna Yiu gave her stunning presentation on 17 May [my annotation for the 425 "Max Capacity"] the record was 186. Has been revised to 182 since.

Doesn't matter. We passed 198 yesterday.

Truly appreciate the transparency from @AHS_media to help us sort out:
• how much and how fast is total ICU capacity growing?
• how many Albertans with Covid-19*, and how many Albertans with other critical needs?

* 202 at 11am today, 198 as of Sunday.

https://twitter.com/ZiadFazel/status/1437487243371761667?s=20

@AHS_media As fast as AHS is adding beds, Exponential Growth of #COVID19AB exceeds it
• On Friday, trend* exceeded surge capacity on Tue 21 Sep
• Over weekend, more beds added, more people critically ill
• Today, trend still > new surge capacity on Tue 21 Sep

*quadratic approximation

The last few weeks, I've been hearing doctors and nurses talk in increasingly unhappy tones about Critical Care Triage Framework.

@PfParks & @GermHunterMD Schwartz describe it here. Today's medical experts on the @PopAlberta show explained it further.

calgaryherald.com/news/local-new…

ICU situation is Sask is no better. They're maybe a week behind us, but fewer beds.

They don't have a Premier/Health Min/CMOH triad making national news for cruelty.

But it is not like we can drop off 30 ICU patients on the way to help out on the farm.

https://twitter.com/awong37/status/1437119409697529857?s=20

I got busy with Life yesterday, and forgot/avoided(?) what we're supposed to be preventing:

Death.
• 72 Albertans died of COVID-19 in the last week
• More than Ontario, which has 3.3x the population
• AB's 12% of 🇨🇦 has 34% of 🇨🇦 Deaths
• Also.. 📈

health-infobase.canada.ca/covid-19/epide…

There's apparently a federal election coming up, and Mr O'Toole was asked this question by @DavidWCochrane

https://twitter.com/cdnpoli_memes/status/1437145637196283910?s=20

@DavidWCochrane There's nothing good the federal Conservative leader could apply from #COVID19AB to 🇨🇦.

But his rehearsed answer is Premier Kenney's ABTraceTogether app?!

That 💩 STILL making a ton of sole source Alberta taxpayer $$ for @Deloitte @DeloitteCanada BTW.

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1323060…