Thread by @NjbBari3

@shaz_harro There is going to be a honeymoon period as the high vaccination rate, together with ongoing mask use and school closures take effect.

A sense of confidence will return and further opening up. Preparations for Christmas will begin.

@shaz_harro Case numbers will increase slowly until the opening up occurs. For a short while even after restrictions are loosened all will seem well… and then the slow ramp of cases will begin again.

@shaz_harro If schools go back without adequate multi-layered mitigations, and it seems likely an attempt will be made to do this, children’s cases will skyrocket.

The pressure will fall on children’s hospitals.

@shaz_harro Some adults will already have waning immunity, including healthcare workers that were vaccinated early and people in ages care facilities… as the pandemic grows, slowly more of these people will be admitted to hospital or die.

@shaz_harro Very slowly, the death rate will increase. Further efforts will be made to source booster doses of vaccines, as well as supplies for children.

This process will come under pressure as many other parts of the world need their first dose or search for boosters.

@shaz_harro Meanwhile rural communities will remain vulnerable. Institutions such as prisons will also begin to see massive waves of disease.

PPE will run short.

@shaz_harro There will be repeated incursions into all other states. Very little attempt will be made by them to prepare the community for an airborne disease assault.

People still won’t know how to wear respirators. You will still see front line workers with beards wearing respirators.

@shaz_harro The situation will worsen. It is likely Australia will seed COVID-19 into neighbouring island states.

@shaz_harro At this point hopefully most people will have had a chance to be vaccinated, and it will likely be on the other side of the new year.

Self help groups on Facebook will pop up. Someone will start #longcovidkidsOz .

@shaz_harro Quite possibly other countries like England will have had another “circuit breaker” lockdown. There may be murmuring to do the same in Australia as we approach winter.

@shaz_harro Staffing will be difficult in hospitals. Elective procedures will be extremely haphazard. Very long waits will occur in hospitals. Even longer than now.

A campaign will start to desperately try to immunise as many as possible to the flu.

@shaz_harro An attempt will likely be made to open international borders at around Christmas or the New Year.

@shaz_harro Resistant strains, a fairly big delta wave, and possibly other respiratory viruses/bacteria/fungi will be the challenge for Winter 2022.

The health system will not be business as usual (and that was challenging enough) for at least a year.

@shaz_harro We are going to see sad coffee shop owners and beauticians saying “Well business is better than when we were in lockdown, but we still don’t have the customers that we used to have”…

@shaz_harro Some businesses will fold.

@shaz_harro Lots of people will be told their loved one is too old or has too many comorbidities for dialysis/ventilator/ECMO/lung transplant.

No one will write anything about it in the press… because it will be normal.

@shaz_harro Leaders will blame the virus. It was too contagious they will say. We couldn’t have controlled it.

We still won’t have legislation to protect essential workers in their workplaces from aerosol.

Someone will take someone to court over it.

@shaz_harro Victoria will watch NSW make an absolute botch of trying to open schools.

Crystal ball is foggy on this one, but it looks like they will try to avoid the same mistake.

@shaz_harro People keep thinking… surely it will get better soon… surely it will get milder.

There is no knight in shining armour, galloping in to save the day. No magical recipe.

Slowly, slowly, public health has to start from scratch… trying to limit the damage.

@shaz_harro We will get the legislation, new vaccine and medicines supply, respirators into workplaces and the wave will slow. Better early therapeutics for example, become cheaper.

Life is hard for a long time. Many people die that don’t need to, but it does get better in the end.

@shaz_harro Many people have big or little changes in their life because of COVID-19.

Someone isn’t at the dinner table that used to be there.

Maybe food doesn’t taste the same anymore. Climbing up the stairs isn’t as easy as it used to be. Some days are better than others.