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Pop Culture Math

12 Sep, 10 tweets, 3 min read

Ok. Price Is Right Tweetathon, let's go!

Introduction Thread: Like many of you, I grew up watching The Price Is Right. During snow days, holidays, always at 11am. TPIR provides millions exposure to games of probability and chance in a way few other shared experiences do.🧵👇

1. Why do fans love TPIR?
Why would they not?
Fans winning great prizes.
The excitement of being called down from the audience.
Guessing prices, with the audience shouting out suggestions. The Price Is Right is “ingrained in American culture,” to quote model Rachel Reynolds

2. washingtonpost.com/news/style/wp/…

3. But there is also the secret sauce. Compared to other game shows, The Price Is Right (in my biased opinion) combines the perfect mix of strategy, skill, and luck. And “It’s the comfort food of television. It’s mashed potatoes,” director Adam Sandler says.

4. Different Adam Sandler from the Happy Gilmore actor Adam Sandler, but who would forget the famous scene of Adam Sandler and Bob Barker in Happy Gilmore where Adam Sandler headbutts Bob Barker the ground and shouts out, “The Price is Wrong *****.”

5. There are ~190 episodes in a season, meaning 1140 items up for Bids in Contestant’s Row, 1140 Pricing Games, 380 Showcase Showdowns, and 380 Showcases. In Seasons 47 and 48, encompassing 356 shows, TPIR gave away over $27mm, or $76,000 per episode. Wow!

6. The Price Is Right has 5 million average daily viewers, and 1 million Facebook followers.

7. I don’t know what The Price Is Right will look like when it reaches is 100th anniversary, but I will bet that the show makes it to 100 seasons, and I hope to be here for it. Next thread: Introduction to the Book.

@PopCultureMath

8. Next thread: Introduction to "Decoding The Price Is Right"

If you liked this thread, give me a follow @PopCultureMath. Let me know your thoughts below!

And Don't forget. 3 books, delivered upon publishing, to be raffled randomly to followers as of 9/19.

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@PopCultureMath

12 Sep

Underbidding in Contestant’s Row: A Thread (5)

Who would think the highest bid in Contestant’s Row would prevail over 50% of the time? Certainly not me when I started my research.

Please pick up the book in about one year’s time to learn more. 🧵👇

1, The last bidder (Bidder 4) won Contestant’s Row bidding 41% of the time. He would have won 53% of the time had he always bid $1 above the highest prior bid.

2. Bidder 4 won with a $1 bid only 26% of the time. Had he instead bid $1 over the highest prior bid every time he bid $1, he would have won 44% of the time. That’s how egregious underbidding was.

Read 13 tweets

Pop Culture Math

@PopCultureMath

12 Sep

Contestant’s Row Bidding, a Long Thread (4)

So how to bid in Contestant’s Row? Let’s discuss what to do, and what not to do, based on whether you bid 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or last (Bidder 1, Bidder 2, Bidder 3, Bidder 4).

Please pick up the book in ~1 year’s time to learn more. 🧵👇

1. Let’s start off and define the goal: To maximize one’s odds of being closest to the actual retail price without going over? This does not mean having the best point estimate, but rather capturing the largest probability of winning across reasonable price ranges.

2. Bidding $1,000 as Bidder 1 for an item you think is worth about $1,100 does not do you much good if one of the subsequent bidders bids $1,001 (“clips” you). As an early bidder, the better your bid is, the more likely it is to be clipped.

Read 16 tweets

Pop Culture Math

@PopCultureMath

12 Sep

Key TPIR Observations, Thread 3.

You are probably thinking – Let’s Dig in to the Conclusions Already! Here are some interesting takeaways as it relates to contestant shortfalls and biases. The next threads will address the right strategies 🧵👇

1. Contestant’s Row: underbidding was very pronounced. The highest bid won 53% of bidding rounds, and the last bidder, who has the benefit of being able to bid $1 over the highest bid or bid $1, won 64% of the time with the highest bid.

2. Contestant Rows: bidders seemed to anchor their bids based on the 1st bid made, whether the 1st bid made sense or not. This amplified the underbidding, in as much as the 1st bidder underbid for a variety of reasons, and then latter bidders followed his/her lead.

Read 10 tweets

Pop Culture Math

@PopCultureMath

12 Sep

Introduction to “Decoding The Price Is Right,” Thread Two:

When watching the show, I wondered what strategies would maximize one’s chances of winning, across Contestant’s Row Bidding, The Showcase Showdown, and many of the Pricing Games.

Haven’t you? 🧵👇

1. TPIR strategies are governed by various fields of math. Contestant’s Row and the Showcase Showdown are unique game theory problems. Human biases create some unexpected outcomes in the Showcase. And many Pricing Games are governed by interesting applications of probability.

2. I have always loved probabilities. In college I studied math & economics. I loved game theory, which studies mathematical models of strategic interaction among rational decision-makers. Sequential games like bidding on TPIR include Tic Tac Toe, Connect Four, & Chess.

Read 11 tweets

Pop Culture Math

@PopCultureMath

1 Sep

@chadsgx

Here is how I go about angel investing.

@chadsgx’s “Pitch Your Startup Spaces,” held Mondays at 8pm, is a great resource.

I am enjoying being a regular panelist.

A thread 👇🧵

1. I invested in five start-ups at a seed stage from 2015-2019. Three are going very well, and I have added to my investment in two of those recently.

2. I have taken more concentrated bets because I like finding start-ups and entrepreneurs whom I have conviction in versus being part of a fund with questionable deal flow access and high fees.

Read 12 tweets

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