Thread by @PopCultureMath

Introduction to “Decoding The Price Is Right,” Thread Two:

When watching the show, I wondered what strategies would maximize one’s chances of winning, across Contestant’s Row Bidding, The Showcase Showdown, and many of the Pricing Games.

Haven’t you? 🧵👇

1. TPIR strategies are governed by various fields of math. Contestant’s Row and the Showcase Showdown are unique game theory problems. Human biases create some unexpected outcomes in the Showcase. And many Pricing Games are governed by interesting applications of probability.

2. I have always loved probabilities. In college I studied math & economics. I loved game theory, which studies mathematical models of strategic interaction among rational decision-makers. Sequential games like bidding on TPIR include Tic Tac Toe, Connect Four, & Chess.

3. After college I considered apply to graduate school to get a PhD in game theory, but I chose the world of finance instead. A few years after college, 20 years ago, the idea for this book came to mind. Writing it would be a consolation prize for NOT getting a PhD in game theory

4. And I sat on the idea for nearly 20 years. At one point I started taping some shows on my VCR – remember VCRs? I looked into solving the strategy for when to stop after one spin on the Showcase Showdown. But I did not make it far and proceeded to sit on the idea for 20 years

5. In early 2019 I revisited writing the book. The Price Is Right was now on CBS All Access. I was in my early 40s. For how many more years could I do math at this level, especially being rusty on the math.

6. I watched Seasons 47 and 48 in their entirety, which ran from September 2017 to June 2018 and September 2018 to June 2019. 356 episodes! I would take a day off and binge watch 15 episodes. I got to a point where I could get through a commercial free episode in 35 minutes.

7. I tracked every bidding round, every pricing game, every prize, and every move by every contestant. My excel file was 100 worksheets. But let me also give a shout out to all the websites that have accumulated TPIR data over decades, particularly tpirstats.com.

8. I wrote the book over the course of 2020. In late 2020, I connected with a fabulous math teacher, @bowmanimal, to help improve the accuracy and communication of the math. The manuscript would not be the same without his help.

9. I am working on bringing the book to market, and am targeting Fall 2022, when fans will hopefully return to the show audience.

Next thread: Key Observations

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