going to assume this is about Jeremy Farrar's recent comment to the effect of having to expect another 30k dead/year in the UK from #COVID19... in which case, this won't be the case for much longer b/c this virus will run out of immunologically naïve hosts soon.
like hot take i actually agree with Ellie *if* this were a scenario we were talking about as likely (i genuinely think we tolerate too many flu deaths, for instance), but it's just not.

can we all seriously relax a bit instead of yelling at each other over hypotheticals?
also like, society is complicated & many pandemic restrictions *do* have externalities, often ones that can be hard to see. for instance, indoor dining restrictions in HK led to a massive increase in street sleeping. travel restrictions have caused hell for refugee applicants.
yes, there are some things that i think should stick around (notably masking in the West, tho voluntary. but seriously make it normalized). but there are costs & benefits to most restrictions & these also shift as you go from short-term to long-term to (in rare cases) indefinite.

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More from @wanderer_jasnah

13 Sep
so i've been asked if it's likely that Ab waning is as likely after a third dose as it is after 2 & while it's suggestive that the answer actually is *no* () i also really think we're really over-focusing on the importance of this issue.
for starters, we're also dealing w/an antigenically drifted virus. it's not a huge case of nAb epitope escape, but L452R (& T478K too, to some extent) *do* affect binding somewhat. "waning" & the rise of Delta coincide, making it hard to tease apart how much each effect...
...contributes to a vax breakthru case. furthermore, B.1.617.2/Delta is very fast & replicates to a high titer very quickly, making relying solely on a memory response tricky if your goal is preventing infection or specially transient swab positivity.
Read 11 tweets
16 Aug
the paper in question, by Tom Gallagher, is finally out: doi.org/10.1128/mBio.0…

i've read a lot of #SARSCoV2 papers this year. i've even read a lot of *good* #SARSCoV2 papers this year. this is hands-down the best one i've read this year (yes even w/4.5 months left this year).
it was the subject of his @NIDO20201 talk, which due to technical difficulties had to be uploaded later, & so i never did a livetweet. so having read the paper extensively, i'll do a summary of it & some implications.
first, a bit of background: viral fusion proteins exhibit various metastable points along a tradeoff between fusion protein stability & fusogenicity.

a highly fusogenic protein will be excellent at cell entry but be highly unstable in even slightly harsh conditions.
Read 27 tweets
26 Jul
i think a lot of people are misunderstanding the mechanism behind "shift to endemicity" in a CoV.

it's not at all due to the *virus*. yes, endemic HCoVs have certain mutations (such as a preference for closed RBDs on Spike where the CTD is the RBD) but those are from...
...selection pressure *once in the endemic state*.

what causes the shift is the virus going from antigenically novel to us having prior immunity. @dylanhmorris wrote a great article on this that is *highly* worth a read: theinsight.org/p/novelty-mean…
but to expand a bit: once we have immunity to a virus, generally* the virus stops being able to cause *disease*. in some cases, immunity is more-or-less sterilizing, i.e. you *generally* don't get symptomatic disease.

*yes i know about Dengue. ADE has not been observed here.
Read 11 tweets
17 Jul
i was prepared for some potential bad takes when i opened nature.com/articles/d4158… but last 2 paragraphs just blew me the fuck away.

let's start with, uh, how little empathy do you have to have to write the words "more death, although seriously concerning, is a minor problem..."?
anyway i seriously am blown away that this person is a virologist. i thought that we moved past the whole "partial immunity" nonsense an eternity ago.

you can select for escape mutants towards a monoclonal or an antiviral. b/c those can't fucking ADAPT to the virus.
guess what our adaptive immune system can do, OTOH? this is assuming it manages to escape a complex polyclonal response over multiple arms of the adaptive immune system.
Read 8 tweets
14 Jun
okay, here's the Framatome report from EDF:

"EDF a été informée de l’augmentation de la concentration de certains gaz rares dans le circuit primaire du réacteur n°1 de la centrale nucléaire de Taishan."
-> "EDF has been informed of the increase in the concentration of certain rare gases in the primary circuit of reactor no.1 of the Taishan nuclear power plant"
"La présence de certains gaz rares dans le circuit primaire est un phénomène connu, étudié et prévu par les procédures d’exploitation des réacteurs." -> "The presence of certain rare gases in the primary circuit is a known phenomenon in the operating procedures of the reactors."
Read 4 tweets
14 Jun
disclaimer: i know i'm not the target of this question (1) i'm as anti-CCP as it gets, 2) i am on record as saying i will happily DRINK a glass of the undiluted Fukushima wastewater & i stand by that), but let's take a look at the Framatome/Areva report.
i haven't been able to find the actual report they gave the US DoE, so right now i'm going by france24.com/fr/info-en-con… & edition.cnn.com/2021/06/14/pol… under the assumption that news agencies didn't fuck up interpreting the science.
(if anyone can find a copy of the official statement from Framatome i'd really like to read it. English or French is fine).
Read 20 tweets

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