The talibs downfall began when they demanded the UN and NGOs share their millions. The UN sent in junket journos forever casting the talibs as the bad guys. The talibs still want free foreign money to “fix” their country but have no plans to modify their bumpkin behavior.
https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1437358699161456643
we focus on western values but the talibs don’t even have the basic skills to run or manage the much larger, more populous nation. An armed uneducated generation raised on war and piracy will not do well. And we simply won’t tolerate their tribal shenanigans passed off as justice
There are also journos in Afghanistan documenting each failure. This won’t end well. China and Russia may pour in to strip mine but the talibs do not do well with modern extractive contracts since they are used to usurious strong arm terms and no investment.
The talibs have been parasites sucking extortion money from western development for 20 years. They have no idea how to invest or even handle complex financials. They truly are in deep shit. The next 90 days will be critical because money and international trade has stopped
As resources dwindle the talibs will fracture into their tribal and regional groups. Resistance fighters will rise and we are back to the same fractured misery. Can a major power or donor prevent this? What exactly is the prize for saving Afghanistan? One of my favorite nations
Afghanistan is very difficult to manage as a centralized nation. We may see regional players marry and support key regions and ignore others. We may also see mercenaries and foreign legions try to steal resources from the talibs. This is just starting.
“Of the $9 billion the Afghan central bank holds in international reserves, roughly $7 billion are kept at the U.S. Federal Reserve,” Each time the talibs whip a woman or cozy up to China, this money seems less likely to be released. They have already appointed terrorists to govt
Some good news is that in this talib iteration the Qataris and the Turks have replaced the Emiratis and Sauds as leads in the interface between the west. They can deal with the tribalism and vagaries better than we can. nbcnews.com/news/world/par…
However this “Muslim Brotherhood”!link as the Saud/Nayhan families see it is just another incentive to split the country across the Hindu Kush. They also want to be on the Iran border. Then there is India/Pak, Russia/China and Angrystans in the mix
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