Thread by @jpr007

TESLA Q3 PRODUCTION - QUICK CHECK

A quick review of the three key uncertainties in the estimates for Q3 production

1. FREMONT M3 / MY

- Q1 production was 102,426 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 3 shifts

- Q2 production was 114,391 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 4 shifts

In Q3 both Fremont M3 and MY should still be on 4 shifts with a combined nominal capacity of 125,000 units per quarter

So the uncertainty is :

- whether Q3 production will fall back to Q1 levels like the 102,991 projected here by Troy ?

- or whether Q3 production will meet and beat Q2 levels ?

I have projected 115,000 units, derived from the nominal capacity of 125,000 units reduced by 10,000 units for supply chain issues

The difference is +12,000 units

2. SHANGHAI M3 / MY

- Q1 production was 80,795 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 1 shift, which was clear outperformance

- Q2 production was 85,108 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 2 shifts, which was right on our expected result of 84,375

In Q3 Shanghai M3 should be on 4 shifts and MY should be on 3 shifts with an enhanced nominal capacity of 109,375 units per quarter

So the uncertainty is :

- whether Q3 production will be at the 111,609 projected here by Troy ?

- or whether Q3 production will beat even this higher number due to overtime capacity in the Line 2 schedule of 3-crew operation ?

I have projected 120,000~125,000 units, derived from the nominal capacity of 109,375 units increased by 10,625~15,625 units for overtime running

Preliminary indications for Shanghai Q3 production are :

- 37,052 units in July, which was right on our expected result of 36,458

- something like 41,000~44,264 units in August, with the latter number being the reported wholesales

- giving a total of say 78,000~81,300 so far

Using the same numbers from August for September would give a range of about 119,000~125,500 for the quarter

- which essentially matches my earlier estimate of 120,000~125,000

3. FREMONT MS / MX

I previously estimated 10,000 units

A strong market reception to the new Model S may justify increasing this production rate slightly to 11,000~12,000 units

SUMMARY

Putting these three pieces back together we get :

1. Fremont M3 / MY at 115,000 units

2. Shanghai M3 / MY at 119,900~125,500 units

3. Fremont MS / MX at 11,000~12,000 units

For a total of 245,900~252,500 units

The midpoint is 249,200 units, for what it is worth

WILD CARD

It is also possible that Tesla may achieve some extra production from the completion of unfinished cars that was referred to by Elon Musk recently

- and this might be weighted towards Model S / X

FOOTNOTE

Either way, these 2021 Q3 numbers are awfully close to an annualized rate of 1,000,000 vehicles per year