Thread by @jpr007

SHANGHAI PRODUCTION 2021 Q3 - MORE WILD CARDS

The closer that we get to the end of the quarter, the more wild cards are emerging for the Shanghai side of production

Let's review them . . .

https://twitter.com/hxteng82/status/1437640302206935044

1. The month of September includes the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, which is a national holiday

- however, I am inclined to think that there are coverage plans in place to cope with this and keep production running steadily

- prior holidays have not had very visible impacts

2. It has been said that Shanghai Phase 1 is running at 800 cars per day, and recent upgrades to Phase 2 have given it an output of 1,000 cars per day

- this would result in an output of around 50,000 cars per month

- compared to my estimate of 41,000~44,264 units for September

This gives a delta of +9,000 relative to the low end of that range

3. I have commented elsewhere about the June end-of-quarter ocean exports of 5,017 cars by Tesla Shanghai that was reported by CPCA for 2021 Q2

This signals that Tesla can put extra production to good
use in export markets once it has satisfied all local demand for the quarter

While these export shipments count as in-transit inventory and not deliveries or sales at the corporate level until the following quarter Q4, they clearly provide an outlet for keeping production at high levels as much as possible

And Tesla has no shortage of hungry markets

So I can now see a 2021 Q3 range of 119,000~128,000 units for Shanghai in place of my previous range of 119,000~125,500

- reflecting the +9,000 delta mentioned above, applied to the low end of the range