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15 Sep, 22 tweets, 3 min read
Plug-in hybrids are a 'wolf in sheep's clothing' - BBC News

Carbon dioxide emissions from plug-in hybrid cars are as much as two-and-a-half times higher than official tests suggest, according to new research…
Plug-in hybrid vehicles are powered by an electric motor using a battery that is recharged by being plugged in or via an on-board petrol or diesel engine

They account for 3% of new car sales
But analysis from pressure groups Transport and Environment and Greenpeace suggest they emit an average of 120g of CO2 per km

That compares with the 44g per km in official "lab" tests
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are sold as a low-carbon alternative to traditional vehicles and conventional hybrids - which cannot be recharged from an external source - and are proving increasingly popular
The new research is published as the government considers whether to bring forward a proposed ban on the sale of new petrol, diesel and conventional hybrid cars from 2035 to 2030
The BBC understands one suggestion is that plug-in hybrids should be given a stay of execution, with new sales allowed to continue until 2035
That's because they can offer a 20- to 40-mile range as a purely electric vehicle and are therefore potentially significantly less polluting than other vehicles
But this new analysis from Transport and Environment and Greenpeace suggests they don't offer anything like the carbon dioxide savings claimed for them by manufacturers

The official tests indicate that plug-in hybrids emit an average of 44g per km of CO2
These tests are conducted on a circuit and see vehicles driven in a way that regulators consider "normal"

The real figure, however, according to the report, is more like 120g per km
The pressure groups have analysed what they say is "real-world" data on fuel efficiency collected from some 20,000 plug-in hybrid drivers around Europe
These are drivers who have chosen to record their mileage and fuel consumption for surveys or who drive company or leased vehicles whose fuel efficiency is recorded

According to this data-set the lifetime emissions of a plug-in hybrid average around 28 tonnes of CO2
By comparison, the average petrol or diesel car is estimated to emit between 39 and 41 tonnes of CO2 from fuel during its lifetime, a conventional hybrid would typically emit more like 33 tonnes
According to these figures a plug-in hybrid would only deliver an emissions reduction of about a third on a typical petrol or diesel car - far less than the official estimates
The motor industry acknowledges that lab tests don't always reflect real-world use but criticised the report, saying it uses emissions data from a test that is two years old
"PHEVs provide a flexibility few other technologies can yet match with extended range for longer, out-of-town journeys and battery power in urban areas, reducing emissions and improving city air quality," says Mike Hawes, the CEO of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
He says he expects the range and performance will continue to improve, making them an "essential stepping stone to a fully electric vehicle"

Greenpeace meanwhile describes PHEVs as "the car industry's wolf in sheep's clothing"
"They may seem a much more environmentally friendly choice," says Rebecca Newsom, the pressure group's head of politics, "but false claims of lower emissions are a ploy by car manufacturers to go on producing SUVs and petrol and diesel engines"

Transport and Environment's analysis says a key problem with plug-in hybrids is that so many owners rarely actually charge their cars, meaning they rely on the petrol or diesel engine
Another is that many plug-in hybrid models include design features that automatically turn on the petrol/diesel engine at start-up on a cold day, or will kick in that engine if driver accelerates hard
The latter mode means that the car's emissions will depend a lot on the driver's behaviour
"If you always charge the battery and tend to do lots of short journeys, they will have very low emissions," says Nick Molden, who runs Emissions Analytics, a company that specialises in vehicle emissions evaluation
"If you never charge the battery and drive very aggressively then they can have significantly higher emissions than the equivalent petrol or diesel model," he continues

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More from @jpr007

15 Sep

GM has said early Bolt models will have their entire battery pack replaced, while newer models will have only defective modules within the pack replaced

Those new parts may not be available until after November…
The automaker said it has bought back some Bolts from owners and is reviewing such requests on a case-by-case basis

GM also has said it expects LG to help shoulder the $1.8 billion expense to replace Bolt battery packs
On Friday GM's Jacobson said the two companies are having "high level conversations" about costs, and that GM expects reimbursement

With resolution of the costly recall debacle still up in the air, relations between GM and LG have soured, people familiar with the situation said
Read 13 tweets
14 Sep

Electrek published an article based on totally false data criticising Tesla and promoting the concept of giving third-party vendors more access to Tesla service tools

They did this using fake material that Rich Rebuilds released in a YouTube video
Beware of headlines like this and be careful not to trust those who criticize Tesla for the purposes of promoting their own agenda

And be sure to do your own homework
Quick Details

1. They claimed Tesla wanted to charge $22,500 for a Battery Replacement on a 2013 Model S

- the correct price from Tesla is actually $10,500 as of last week
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep

The closer that we get to the end of the quarter, the more wild cards are emerging for the Shanghai side of production

Let's review them . . .
1. The month of September includes the Chinese Mid-Autumn Festival, which is a national holiday

- however, I am inclined to think that there are coverage plans in place to cope with this and keep production running steadily

- prior holidays have not had very visible impacts
2. It has been said that Shanghai Phase 1 is running at 800 cars per day, and recent upgrades to Phase 2 have given it an output of 1,000 cars per day

- this would result in an output of around 50,000 cars per month

- compared to my estimate of 41,000~44,264 units for September
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep

A quick review of the three key uncertainties in the estimates for Q3 production


- Q1 production was 102,426 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 3 shifts

- Q2 production was 114,391 with M3 on 4 shifts and MY on 4 shifts
In Q3 both Fremont M3 and MY should still be on 4 shifts with a combined nominal capacity of 125,000 units per quarter

So the uncertainty is :

- whether Q3 production will fall back to Q1 levels like the 102,991 projected here by Troy ?
- or whether Q3 production will meet and beat Q2 levels ?

I have projected 115,000 units, derived from the nominal capacity of 125,000 units reduced by 10,000 units for supply chain issues

The difference is +12,000 units
Read 12 tweets
13 Sep
NASA has selected SpaceX to launch the last in a series of geostationary weather satellites that had previously been launched by United Launch Alliance…
NASA announced on 10 September that it awarded a contract to SpaceX for the Falcon Heavy launch of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) U spacecraft

The launch is scheduled for April 2024 from the Kennedy Space Center in Florida
The agency said the contract is valued at $152.5 million

GOES-U is the fourth and final satellite in the GOES-R series of satellites, which monitor terrestrial and space weather from geostationary orbit
Read 16 tweets
13 Sep

So here is the problem with this whole story

1. Batteries age over time

2. After 8 years of use, some of the cells in two of the sixteen modules had passed their threshold of serviceability
3. The owner chose to replace 2 out of the 16 modules for $1,500 each, equivalent to a cost of $24,000 for the whole pack

4. And he paid $2,000 on top of that for the work to be done

5. Those two modules may now last for another eight years
6. But the rest of the modules will slowly degrade and eventually become unserviceable, and require their own replacement

7. Using the same process, the owner will ultimately spend $40,000 for the first-time replacement of all his battery modules
Read 7 tweets

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