Notes from Affirm's earnings call:

1. BNPL value prop
2. Very excited about the new debit card
3. New savings product
4. Decrease of Peloton concentration
5. Not as many multi-year 0% APR deals
6. No Amazon GMV embedded in guidance
1/ "Our core insight was that the generations coming of age after the financial crisis of 2008 were no longer willing to tolerate getting into permanent debt by putting it all in the card, or getting burned by late fees and deferred interest"
2a/ Affirm Debit Card

"The next frontier of unbundled payment is daily spent, groceries restaurants, incidental purchases. This is why we're so excited to be rolling out the very first card of its kind, the Affirm Debit+ card."
2b/ "The Affirm Debit+ card connects seamlessly to their existing bank account, and no new checking account is required. Once you swipe or tap your card, you can use the intuitive debit plus companion app to turn any eligible transaction into an Affirm pay-over-time product."
2c/ "The beauty of our card is that it's powered by software, which means that you can expect us to regularly add new features and functionality via app update. I believe Debit+ is a revolutionary idea that can truly help millions of people enjoy life with a lot less anxiety..."
2d/ "So, again, without -- I realized I'm sounding a little bit like a child high in a pile of sugar, but I think this bed is busting -- it's pretty awesome. And we wanted to be the primary transactional device for our consumers."
2e/ "But I am tempering my excitement for the product because I know our lawyer is watching. But it is hard to tempering, it’s a great product."
3/ "By simply adding savings to the Affirm app, we've attracted total deposits of approximately $300 million, with no fanfare and no promotion, simply through organic engagement and a great product offering"
4/ "Owing to the strong growth of our business, merchant concentration continues to decline, as Peloton contributed 9% fourth quarter GMV compared to 32% in the prior year's fourth quarter"

"Excluding Peloton, we expect GMV growth of 70% to 75%"
5/ "Turning to the mix of our offering, we derive 38% of GMV from our 0% APR product, down from 54% in the fourth quarter of 2020."

"Loans with a term length of greater than 12-months accounted for 22%, down from 43% last year."
6/ "Additionally, we have not included any GMV or revenue from the Amazon partnership we have recently announced."
End/ Affirm has some exciting partnerships with Amazon and Shopify and it seems like they are doing a great job of onboarding new merchants.

They are also extremely excited about their new debit card.

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More from @investing_city

14 Sep
Notes from Global-E's last earnings report:

1. Value prop is making cross-border e-comm easy
2. Shopify is ramping
3. Expect acquisitions
4. Merchant growth is good
5. Gross margins continue to scale
6. Retention is 98%

Quotes below...⬇️
1/

"We use a proprietary built localized pricing engine to present prices in more than 100 currencies & support different pricing structures based on the shoppers’ location, local market conventions & the merchants pricing strategy"
2a/ On Shopify

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31 Jul
Just a few interesting sections from Twilio's Q2 2021 earnings call:

1. On IoT

"As you imagine, you've got an IoT humidifier, or truck, or garbage dumpster, or trombone, you don't want to have to remanufacture that thing every time you get better connectivity technology...
...You want to be able to continually silently upgrade it in the background. That's what Super SIM enables companies to do because their connectivity is not something that is set into the device, and it's something that they can continually evolve in the cloud."
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7 Jul
I've recently taken a small position in Doximity (DOCS), violating my rule of waiting until at least the first earnings report for a recent IPO.

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[THREAD] ⬇️
1/ Doximity (a combo of doctor and proximity) started as a LinkedIn for doctors but has really evolved into more of a productivity suite for medical professionals.

Connecting with other physicians is important but the company also offers HIPAA compliant e-fax, voice dialer, etc
2/ Basically, Doximity does a lot of little things that help doctors save time and improve their lives.

The 1.8 million doctors using Doximity are the cornered resource. And the company monetizes that attention through advertising.
Read 24 tweets
29 Jun
1/ Some random things I've learned about the auto industry value chain recently...
2/ Car dealerships typically don't have the capital to outright buy all of their inventory so vehicle manufacturers will provide "floorplan facilities".

This is a type of loan that allows dealerships to hold inventory and pay back the loan as cars get sold.
3/ The higher the inventory turnover, the less the dealership has to pay in interest expense and depreciation.

So inventory turns are crucial.

Ok, that's for new cars.
Read 19 tweets
24 Jun
1/ "The map is not the territory" is a very interesting mental model.

The idea is that abstractions aren't the real thing.

Well, duh! But there are actually a lot of applications...
2/ An obvious one is that stocks are abstractions of businesses.

A stock is not a business.

Even the concept of a business is an abstraction.

No two businesses are the same. A business is just a collection of people doing things and making decisions for others (customers).
3/ The application is that when a stock price is extremely volatile (the abstraction), the underlying business is likely not nearly as volatile (the territory).

And we can take advantage of these dislocations (@ Mr. Market)
Read 7 tweets
23 Jun
1/ Investing is hard because it takes the perfect balance of conviction and humility.

For instance, a stock you know well has gone up a bunch.

Do you trim because the forward return is lower than alternatives or do you hold?
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On the other hand, there are lots of considerations:

• Are you adjusting for taxes?
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• What about when adjusting for your level of company knowledge?
3/ If you're rotating into a company you know fairly well instead of really well, what's the risk that your conviction gets shaken?

How much of a premium should you place on this? Should there be any premium at all?
Read 5 tweets

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