there is nothing more insane than the Tajikistan/Uzbekistan/Kyrgyzstan border lines around the Fergana valley.
the Kyrgyz-Uzbek split kinda makes sense in principle, but then there's the exclaves and it's like, well, that's clearly insane
the fact that Tajikistan reaches up and over the mountains to just very chill like have some towns at the mouth of the Fergana valley is obviously the most bonkers part of all of this
what i don't fully know is the extent to which the existing "ethnic map" reflects "where these people have been for a long time" or "biased counts by nation states" or "minorities got the boot" or some of all of the above
this map makes it look like the national borders are good proxies for actual ethnic/linguistic communities, but my question is: is this true? how distinct are these groups on the ground? and are the lines tidy because minorities got kicked out?

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More from @lymanstoneky

16 Sep
he's right

(but also if manchin isn't gonna budge having a simple binary work requirement impacts a fairly small share of kids and is still a huge improvement over status quo ante)
getting worried that on the CTC what is going to happen is GOP won't budge at all because there's a million other bad things in the bill and also Dems will fail to agree on something because of perfect-universality-extremists.
whereas im over here saying, giving more money to kids is good, and getting a permanent child allowance for every family with any earnings/employment at all in the prior year would be a massive improvement over what we get when the expansion expires
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
officially over 1,000 responses to my survey of Lutherans, and over 200 for my broader survey of religion. For all Facebook ads, mass mailing, everything, by the time it's all said and done, I'll have spent ~$2,000, meaning my cost per response is going to be $1.70 or less.
which is hilarious since I was quoted $95/response by a major firm and lots of people told me that was actually not crazy.
now of course my sample isn't random!

but when you're sampling a group which is <1% of the population to begin with via an online sample, *that's not a random sample anyways*
Read 38 tweets
15 Sep
For the first time, the Census Bureau has collected representative population-wide data on gender identity and sexual orientation in the latest two weeks of the Household Pulse Survey. Here are the results by age, one including people who didn't know/refused to respond, one not. ImageImage
Given the stable age gradient on unclear or refuse responses, I prefer to use the method dropping those respondents to estimate a population parameter, i.e. this graph. Image
Here's how the non cis-het groups look as line graphs for more clarity on those trends. You can see all such identities have gotten a lot more common in younger cohorts. However, the pace of increasing prevalence is not identical. Image
Read 24 tweets
15 Sep
war with China would absolutely not be easy to win and could plausibly result in our defeat, which is why it is vital that we prepare more intensively for such a war, and why it is extremely concerning that Milley may have been back-channeling relevant US plans to China.
Milley may have thought China thought we were about to attack. Whether China actually thought that is unclear. And obviously we were *not* about to attack.
Here's the thing though:

Had Milley *not* sent this message, China would have had to debate the matter internally. And they would not have launched a pre-emptive strike because, seriously, that would have been insane.
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep
I think it's a bit much to call it an ideology of masculinity when a lot of it is wildly differential rates of diagnosis for ADD, ADHD, autism, and a gajillion other learning disorders. Differential rates of violent death by sex can be identified in pre-Neolithic remains!
A theory of sex differences in education which doesn't account for the factors we know are OVERWHELMINGLY the most predictive of educational performance (diagnosed learning or attention issues and documented disciplinary issues) seems kind of weird.
And attributing it to a specific masculine ideology is also odd. There may be ideology involved, but the reason for differential rates of male diagnosis for ADHD may be related to ideology, but not an ideology we can call machismo.
Read 14 tweets
15 Sep
Here are estimates of births in Georgia (country, not state) using various methods.

In my view, the student enrollment data by age and the official vital stats data are the most reliable, followed by the reconstructed 2014 census data. Image
The key thing to understand here is that this implies practically a 10% undercount of recent births in the 2014 Georgian census, which is a massive undercount.
The 2002 census was widely believed to be a huge overcount of adults. It's not clear if this undercount issue might expand to adults as well.
Read 9 tweets

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