My final prediction is that Gavin Newsom will win the recall election by double digits. All of you in California need to get out there and vote right now, and the rest of you need to call or text everyone you know in California and tell them to go vote today, and prove me right!
And no, it doesn't matter that Larry Elder is vowing to "contest" the results. We already saw in 2020 that this strategy didn't get Trump anywhere.
For that matter, when the Republicans push the "rigged election" narrative, it just convinces their own base that there's no point in turning out next time, because they're going to lose no matter what. So let them push that narrative if they really want to. It only helps us.
Also, if we win big in the recall election, it'll be because you folks put in the hard work required to win. It's always what elections come down to. Don't forget that next time. It's never about lamenting or cowering. It's about about fighting to win, and putting in the work.

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More from @PalmerReport

15 Sep
Everyone on CNN and MSNBC hopes to remain on the air just by being insightful. But some of them eventually realize it’s not going to happen, so they resort to saying absurd things to try to stir up enough ratings to keep their job that way. It explains Chuck Todd and many others.
Kasie Hunt didn’t work out at MSNBC. Now she’s got a second (and likely last) chance at CNN. Instead of trying to be insightful and hoping it’s enough, she’s skipping straight to saying absurd things to stir up controversy, in the hope people will hate-watch her.
It’s doubtful any political analyst truly WANTS to be hate-watched, ratioed, only relevant due to being seen as a punchline, etc.

But if and when you realize it’s the only thing that’ll keep you on TV, it’s either humiliate yourself, or give up on your TV dreams altogether.
Read 13 tweets
15 Sep
Here's how it'll go: Senate will vote on the latest revised voting rights act this month. It'll fail 50-50 by design. Biden will then use it as a rallying cry and apply major pressure on Manchin and Sinema to exempt it from the filibuster. Biden should win that fight eventually.
Keep in mind that while Biden is super savvy (and the President), and Manchin and Sinema are lightweights, Biden will still need us to apply pressure to them. Call, write, etc.

The "Manchin and Sinema will never cave" defeatists will need to shut up and let us fight and win.
Keep in mind that the midterms are still more than a year away. This is a long term play, not some panic move. It's more important to succeed than it is to rush it.
Read 7 tweets
15 Sep
MSNBC can't scare viewers into staying tuned in by suggesting Newsom might lose tonight, since most viewers know he's very likely to win. So instead MSNBC is trying to scare viewers by suddenly suggesting... Wisconsin might be overturned? Cable news will do anything for ratings.
If Newson were ahead in the polls by 5 points, every MSNBC segment tonight would be based on the narrative that he's likely to lose.

Instead he's ahead in the polls by 15 points, so the recall race is getting about two minutes per hour of coverage tonight.
Which is a shame, because there's a huge story here. If Newsom does win in a blowout, it'll mean the "Resistance" (or whatever we call ourselves these days) can still mobilize and dominate in elections – including Virginia this November, and in the midterms in 2022.
Read 6 tweets
14 Sep
It would have been literally impossible for Mike Pence to magically overturn the election results even if he wanted to. So no, we were not one Dan Quayle phone call away from Trump magically remaining in power forever. Can we stop with this sensationalistic nonsense already?
January 6th had literally zero chance of magically keeping Trump in power, no matter how it might have played out. The notion that he almost magically “pulled it off” it’s a child’s fairy tale invented by the media to boost ratings and infantilize viewers.
The Capitol attack cost Trump his social media presence, his financial prospects, and his political future. It destroyed him. What’s more, there was no other possible outcome. Trump threw his life away that day, in the zero/chance hope of getting back what he’d lost.
Read 7 tweets
12 Sep
New polling says just 51% of republicans think Trump gives them the best shot in 2024, and 49% of republicans think their best shot is with someone new. In other words, more and more republicans are moving on from the fading loser. Even if they like him, they know he’d toast.
Palmer Report has been warning you all year that Trump is not the threat in 2024. The threat in 2024 is the new Republican monster who comes out of nowhere and doesn’t get properly vetted because we’re all too busy fretting over Trump instead.
We also warned you that it probably wouldn’t be someone like DeSantis, who was pushed to the front way too early and was going to melt under the spotlight long before 2024 (which we’re now seeing happen already). It’ll likely be someone who comes out of nowhere.
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep
This week is a reminder that politicians win battles by painstakingly amassing comprehensive legal cases before taking a big swing, so it’ll withstand inevitable legal challenges.

Winning has NOTHING to do with the “why don’t Democrats grow a spine” rhetoric coming from morons.
95% of politics takes place behind the scenes, and is all about setting the stage for making sure your big deigns can actually succeed.

Every pundit knows this.

Most pundits present politics 59 you as a simplistic fantasy land anyway, in order to pander to you.
Most political activists have a child’s understanding of politics, both because they want to pretend it’s a spectator sport, and because most pundits are invested in keeping their audiences stupid. Until you figure this out, you’ll continue to be confused everything that happens.
Read 10 tweets

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