Thread by @althecat

There are at least 2 significant omissions from this @CrisisGroup .
1. Roble's unsanctioned visit to Kenya, directly against the explicit instructions of Farmaajo to discuss very sensitive matters of FP including the maritime boundary dispute.
2. The abduction of @AbdiwahabSheik7

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1437863677454082056

@CrisisGroup @AbdiwahabSheik7 The report is almost certainly written by or strongly influenced by @Dibjir and @SahanResearch - which is not an independent actor in all this. It has an agenda.

The bad blood between Matt Bryden (@Dibjir) and Farmaajo is extremely well known.

The @CrisisGroup report makes two recommendations. The first that Farmaajo should not dismiss Roble.

And the second - a call for the Western cavalry to intervene. i.e. the US/UK/EU to use financial leverage and threats of sanctions to preserve Roble in his position.

And the @CrisisGroup report uses a flashy and triggering allegation involving the U.S.'s go to trigger subject - Eritrea - to hammer this home. Reports on this in English are relatively few and far between. The allegations are also somewhat sketchy/vague. voanews.com/africa/al-shab…

@CrisisGroup "Former NISA Director-General Abdullahi Ali Sanbalolshe told VOA Somali in July that “some people” told him Ikran had records about a program that secretly sent Somali military recruits to Eritrea to train." - VOA News September 3rd

Here is the account of this part of the story in the @CrisisGroup report. Two of the three sources cited are VOA:
1.

https://twitter.com/HarunMaruf/status/1422576969066192900

2. voanews.com/africa/clandes…

The third is a lurid report from early in the Tigray war.
3. garoweonline.com/en/featured/un…

The Garowe report accuses the alleged Somali/Eritrean deployment of being in Axum at the time of the alleged massacre there. See questions about the massacre here >> jeffpearce.medium.com/ethiopia-lies-…

The "Axum Massacre" is not part of the joint UN/GoE HR investigation.

The combination of selected exclusions (Roble in Kenya & Abdiwahab abduction), and the resurfacing of trigger subjects directed via @CrisisGroup at the US/EU/UK security/diplomacy establishment which fund ICG, seems very deliberate to me.

As indicated in my previous thread on this, it is very unlikely Kenyan based @SAHANResearch group, whose two principles @Dibjir and @RabdiAnalyst are ex-Crisis Group, are behind this un-bylined report.

Observers of @SahanResearch are in no doubt whatsoever that they have been strongly pushing the TPLF agenda throughout this war. On multiple occasions it appeared that @RAbdiAnalyst's digital influence campaign was in fact financed by the TPLF.

With the death of the Somali intelligence officer Ikraan Tahiil (aka Ikran Tahil) - at the heart of this latest Somali crisis - also linked directly to the Tigray Conflict this latest Somali election drama ought to be considered as part of the broader regional conflict.

Further it is clear that in its latest Somalia intrigue, selectively reported to its Western Funders, Sahan is trading on the power of its connections to powerful western interests to in effect undermine a peaceful election in Somalia.

Why US/UK/EU would think it is in their interests for the Somalia elections to be actively disrupted by Sahan is a mystery. But right now, this is conclusion that the evidence points towards, and this is exactly what @AbdiwahabSheik7 warned about on the day before his abduction.

/ENDS

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