There are at least 2 significant omissions from this @CrisisGroup .
1. Roble's unsanctioned visit to Kenya, directly against the explicit instructions of Farmaajo to discuss very sensitive matters of FP including the maritime boundary dispute.
2. The abduction of @AbdiwahabSheik7
@CrisisGroup @AbdiwahabSheik7 The report is almost certainly written by or strongly influenced by @Dibjir and @SahanResearch - which is not an independent actor in all this. It has an agenda.

The bad blood between Matt Bryden (@Dibjir) and Farmaajo is extremely well known.
The @CrisisGroup report makes two recommendations. The first that Farmaajo should not dismiss Roble.
And the second - a call for the Western cavalry to intervene. i.e. the US/UK/EU to use financial leverage and threats of sanctions to preserve Roble in his position.
And the @CrisisGroup report uses a flashy and triggering allegation involving the U.S.'s go to trigger subject - Eritrea - to hammer this home. Reports on this in English are relatively few and far between. The allegations are also somewhat sketchy/vague.…
@CrisisGroup "Former NISA Director-General Abdullahi Ali Sanbalolshe told VOA Somali in July that “some people” told him Ikran had records about a program that secretly sent Somali military recruits to Eritrea to train." - VOA News September 3rd
Here is the account of this part of the story in the @CrisisGroup report. Two of the three sources cited are VOA:

The third is a lurid report from early in the Tigray war.
The Garowe report accuses the alleged Somali/Eritrean deployment of being in Axum at the time of the alleged massacre there. See questions about the massacre here >>…

The "Axum Massacre" is not part of the joint UN/GoE HR investigation.
The combination of selected exclusions (Roble in Kenya & Abdiwahab abduction), and the resurfacing of trigger subjects directed via @CrisisGroup at the US/EU/UK security/diplomacy establishment which fund ICG, seems very deliberate to me.
As indicated in my previous thread on this, it is very unlikely Kenyan based @SAHANResearch group, whose two principles @Dibjir and @RabdiAnalyst are ex-Crisis Group, are behind this un-bylined report.
Observers of @SahanResearch are in no doubt whatsoever that they have been strongly pushing the TPLF agenda throughout this war. On multiple occasions it appeared that @RAbdiAnalyst's digital influence campaign was in fact financed by the TPLF.
With the death of the Somali intelligence officer Ikraan Tahiil (aka Ikran Tahil) - at the heart of this latest Somali crisis - also linked directly to the Tigray Conflict this latest Somali election drama ought to be considered as part of the broader regional conflict.
Further it is clear that in its latest Somalia intrigue, selectively reported to its Western Funders, Sahan is trading on the power of its connections to powerful western interests to in effect undermine a peaceful election in Somalia.
Why US/UK/EU would think it is in their interests for the Somalia elections to be actively disrupted by Sahan is a mystery. But right now, this is conclusion that the evidence points towards, and this is exactly what @AbdiwahabSheik7 warned about on the day before his abduction.

@threadreaderapp unroll

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Alastair Thompson

Alastair Thompson Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @althecat

16 Sep
The Ethiopian-Tigray Crisis-War has reached what looks like a turning point. The rumours, which are everywhere, that @POTUS @JoeBiden is about to sanction Ethiopia and Eritrea are clearly being telegraphed for a reason.
@POTUS @JoeBiden E.G. this is one of the most recent ones. And this one is weirdly specific. "18 Hours". sounds like there will be a press conference or something.
Apparently the announcement of the sanctions has been approved. On the day that @KarenBassTweets was due to depart for Ethiopia on CODEL (Congressional Delegation) visit. However this seems to have been postponed, now till 27th-29th September. Which is odd.
Read 24 tweets
16 Sep
Translation into English of Somalia President Farmaajo’s statement suspending Somalia PM Roble @MohamedHRoble (aka Rooble)’s powers. [ Translation by @Mohamud_M_A ] Image
And some speculation on possible immediate reasons for Roble’s removal by President Farmaajo @M_Farmaajo.
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Ministry of Peace Statement released today on Facebook. Thread...

"Humanitarian assistance is a service that should be provided to any victim in need without any preconditions." Minister of Peace HE Muferihat Kamil.
"An estimated 4.5 million people have been affected due to the attacks in Amhara and Afar regions by the terrorist group TPLF following the Ethiopian government's decision for a unilateral ceasefire.
"More than 550 thousand people have recently been displaced from their homes, in addition to those already in the camps as a result of TPLF's desire to expand its attacks on innocent civilians.
Read 19 tweets
15 Sep
Great so we now know who is responsible for this report. .

@AvvZaki @OmarSMahmood @Mutiga, why is the abduction of @AbdiwahabSheik7 missing from the report?

It's clear this abduction is part of the story after he was abducted off the streets of Nairobi on Sept. 9th.
And why are PM Roble's numerous - on their face overtly destructive - actions in relation to the coming election [including his visit to Kenya] brushed over in a narrative which focuses almost exclusively on a unproven allegation about the death of Ikran Tahlil?
Furthermore @CrisisGroup @alanboswell

& authors of this report: @AvvZaki, @OmarSMahmood,

What is the role of the former UN observer @Dibjir and his shadowy Sahan Research intelligence group - staffed by former @CrisisGroup personnel - in all of this?
Read 36 tweets
14 Sep
This firefight in Somalia took place on the day before Analyst/Political Commentator @AbdiwahabSheik7's abduction.

Somalia’s Politicians Play with Fire – Again… via @CrisisGroup
I can't help but notice that this article is un-bylined and was very quickly tweeted by @Dibjir, the boss of @SahanResearch whose twitter account basically consists of a running commentary of this affair, taking a firmly pro Roble line. Image
I very much hope that neither @Dibjir nor his fellow Horn of Africa misinformation peddler @rashidabdi, both ex-@CrisisGroup had anything to do with it's creation, but I suspect that this is an unrealistic hope.
Read 10 tweets
14 Sep
This is a good Ethiopian New Year's thread from @CrisisGroup.
@CrisisGroup And this is a great Ethiopian New Year report from UNSG @AntonioGuterres…
Anyone with their eyes open knows that this world is in a very very dangerous place at present. We have threats coming at us in all directions. But the greatest threat of all comes from pure physics, and if we do not take collective action to address global warming we are doomed.
Read 11 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!