A little snippet into a current trade of mine right now - $DOT
A mini day trade thread:
- First open the chart and assess the Price Action
- What we see is some previous market structure broken per the rectangle
- We've also now had 4 taps of support here
Now we set up our HTF fibs as shown, and then also check the volume
- Note that there was a large amount of volume to support the larger move, with much lower volume now where price is trading
Then we add our fibs on to suit as we love to do
Followed by our mate, Stochastic RSI
- Old mate SRSI shows us that there is an overbought event right now occuring at the resistance of the 0.618 level
- This suggests that the market will dip as a result
- I'm now set up for a short sell
- But, let's look for more confluence
So for more confluence, let's take a look at the VPVR
And, what do you know - a point of control also sits right on the fib that price is resisting at, coupled with the overbought SRSI, and... one more thing
Our bias builds for a short.
We now also pull our fibs with our targets, and price also lines up with the 0.618 to 0.705 level for an entry, and target could be the 0.786 fib which is also not far from the Value Area Low of the VPVR we explored above.
Short confirmed
By this time, I've taken first profits, and my SL is now at break even.
It only takes 5 mins to assess a trade, and when you find the conviction that supports your idea, pull the trigger.
Take no prisoners.
You're right or your wrong, but probability is in your favour here.
And for those of you who were playing at home, here is the result of our daytrade that we took.
Target hit for 2.53R
Remember:
- Build the narrative
- Find the confluence
- Execute
- Repeat
You can do this!
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above