"I absolutely reject that somehow, what's about to happen to women because of the #Taliban taking over the government is simply something we have to tolerate as the prince of doing business in South & Central Asia."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "Where this really began to unravel was then when U.S. chose to make a separate deal with the #Taliban, to exclude the #Afghan govt & to set a certain date for when we'd depart... only then did we begin to see the real problem unfold."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "When we departed, there was a very real signal: 'you are on your own'... The advisors left... When we pulled out, we took out about 18,000 contractors... the way we equipped them, they relied wholly on those contractors."
@BrookingsInst@MiddleEastInst "Targets are fleeting.. targeting assumes 'eyes on the target,' boots on the ground.. but we have none of that. We have very limited capacity to identify or monitor targets.
Over the horizon, talk about it all you want.. it's going to be a challenge."
Gen. Allen: "No, I really don't think so.. there are other terror threats that we need to be concerned about.. I'm hearing there's already a movement towards #Afghanistan."
The #Haqqani Network, in the palace, is a 360° terrorist organization."
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What's happening in #Syria's #Druze-majority governorate of #Suwayda?
A 🧵:
Last night, almost all of #Suwayda's #Druze religious, civil & military leaders agreed a deal w. #Damascus to begin a gradual integration of #Syria's Interior Ministry, by folding #Druze militias into the "Public Security" force -- & later, more into the Defense Ministry.
This morning, that deal began moving -- with ~700 #Druze militiamen fast-tracked into a #Suwayda-specific Public Security force responsible for security in the (a) capital & (b) border areas. ~1,300 more men are in process to join too.
Amid hostilities in #Sahnaya, let's get one thing straight -- this is *not* a "gov't vs. Druze" conflict. By any means.
#Syria's Druze are extremely divided -- especially the clerics.
And more than any other actor, #Israel is preying on that division.
While some #Druze clerics (like Hijri) appear determined to hold hard against #Damascus, others (like Hinawi & Jarbou) seem determined to find a middle ground compromise.
Then there's Druze in #Israel (working with the IDF) & in #Lebanon (backing #Damascus).
The most powerful #Druze militias (Rijal al-Karama, Ahrar al-Jabal etc) -- HQ'd in #Suwayda -- have signed a framework security agreement with #Damascus & work jointly with the Interior Ministry. They worked together to end fighting in #Jaramana & same overnight in Sahnaya.
When it comes to reports of a US military withdrawal from #Syria, there are many moving parts in play, but it's clearly coming.
The US military's decisive shift in posture & priorities post-#Assad offered the clearest evidence. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell in Dec 2024, the US military has established relations with #Damascus & proactively facilitated & pushed talks between the #SDF & #Syria's new gov't.
For CENTCOM: the #SDF *must* integrate into the new #Syria.
The March 10 framework agreement signed by #Syria President Ahmed al-Sharaa & #SDF leader Mazloum Abdi was a direct result of US mediation -- and from March 6, of *intense* pressure on the #SDF (by @CENTCOM's Gen Kurilla & @CJTFOIR's MG Leahy).
For years, #Syria's crisis was a complex geopolitical battleground, involving #Russia, #Iran, #USA, #Turkey, #Israel & more.
With #Assad out, a dangerous geopolitical face-off is intensifying -- between #Turkey & #Israel. A 🧵:
Since #Assad fell 4 months ago, #Israel has launched ~750 airstrikes & 100+ ground incursions into #Syria, seeking to cripple #Syria militarily -- while demanding a complete demilitarization of the south.
With the #HTS-led military victory in #Syria, #Turkey -- in theory -- has the most to gain, and to a large extent, it's moved methodically to establish its influence.
But for now, the transitional gov't in #Damascus wants to balance its regional relations.
The information space around #Syria has collapsed into a toxic pot of vitriol, wild misinformation and... some facts.
Large numbers of people are tragically dead, but the circumstances & context are far more complex than is being widely conveyed. A 🧵:
In the lead-up to Thursday night, pro-#Assad gunmen had launched 46 attacks on interim gov't forces in 6/14 of #Syria's governorates -- but what happened Thursday night was a whole other level.
3 days later, more than 400 gov't forces are confirmed as dead.
Almost all of those 400 gov't forces were locally-deployed -- many killed by summary execution, burned to death & buried alive.
In the 1st night of fighting, pro-#Assad gunmen also launched attacks on rival villages -- some Sunni, others Alawite.
Suffice to say, the chance of #Syria being granted any sanctions relief by the #Trump admin is now effectively zero.
#Assad loyalists knew exactly what they wanted -- an extension of the long-standing "#Assad or we burn the country" motto.
#Assad fell in an #HTS-led military campaign that demonstrated extraordinary & unprecedented self-restraint -- and in the aftermath, calls for 'reconciliation' & recovery kept a lid on a long-standing boiling pot of anger & grudges.
After a decade+ of pro-#Assad sectarian massacres, 82,000 barrel bombs, starvation sieges, 340+ chemical weapons attacks, industrialized torture & 130k disappeared -- the simmering fury & thirst for revenge was restrained only by the prospect of a new start.