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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
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16 Sep, 4 tweets, 2 min read
In addition to AUKUS, a potentially important (let's see details) shift in US military posture in Asia: "American ships, bomber planes, satellites and military base personnel will all have a significantly increased presence across Australia..." afr.com/policy/foreign…
Dutton: “This will include greater air cooperation, through rotation deployments of all types of US military aircraft to Australia,” ... more “bilateral military exercises”, and “greater combined exercise engagement with partners in the region.” afr.com/policy/foreign…
"..will expand Australia’s space knowledge and capabilities. I’m pleased to announce that the Australian Department of Defence in the United States National Reconnaissance Office have also committed to a broad range of satellite activities” Mr Dutton said" afr.com/policy/foreign…
More US munitions on Aus too, apparently. Dutton: "The air capability will be enhanced, our maritime capability enhanced and certainly the force posture enhanced. If that includes basing and the storage of different ordnances" smh.com.au/world/north-am…

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Shashank Joshi Profile picture
17 Sep
Two issues at stake with AUKUS, and these are being slightly conflated. One is whether Aus should've been open with France sooner. Second is whether France should've been included in pact. 1/4
The answer to the first seems to me to be: yes. And clearly Canberra mostly at fault. But answer to second seems much less clear-cut (though am speculating and happy to be corrected). 2/4
Would France have accepted junior partner status that UK & Aus are comfortable with? If it would, how would US (and UK) feel about co-operation in most sensitive area of defence tech with country that has *never* been as aligned on defence industrial matters as US, UK & Aus? 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
15 Sep
Here we go. #aukus Image
Joint US-UK-Aus statement: "As the first initiative under AUKUS...we commit to a shared ambition to support Australia in acquiring nuclear-powered submarines ... Today, we embark on a trilateral effort of 18 months to identify the optimal pathway to deliver this capability."
On the non-proliferation aspects: "Australia is committed to adhering to the highest standards for safeguards, transparency, verification, and accountancy measures to ensure the non-proliferation, safety, and security of nuclear material and technology." (cc @james_acton32)
Read 7 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
15 Sep
"Speculation was rife among diplomatic and defence circles on Wednesday night that Australia was about to partner with the US and UK to buy a nuclear-powered submarine." US may operate Virginia-class out of Perth. UK may help "with reactor technology." afr.com/politics/feder… Image
"rumours the troubled $90 billion contract with French shipbuilder Naval Group is about to be torn up...Relations between Naval Group and the government have broken down over a series of issues" afr.com/politics/feder… Funny timing: Aus-France 2+2 meeting was two weeks ago!
Perhaps even broader than that: new working group, "AUUKUS, will make it easier for [US, UK, Aus] to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities" politico.com/news/2021/09/1…
Read 9 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
2 Sep
The Taliban do politics: "In the absence of a strong, on-the-ground leader, there have been indications of power struggles between different Ghilzai and Durrani leaders, eastern and southern networks, and hardliners and those looking for more flexibility" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
"it does not seem that anybody outside the Taleban’s circle is involved in any substantive discussions...There are no longer any indications that, even if they did happen, appointments [of Karzai/Abdullah/Hekmatyar] would be anything more than symbolic." afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
Fascinating insight from a former Afghan security official: "We all feel the danger, especially those who served in different provinces. We don’t fear the leadership. We fear the ordinary people" afghanistan-analysts.org/en/reports/war…
Read 5 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
1 Sep
AP, from Kabul. "There are few signs of the draconian restrictions the Taliban imposed last time they were in power ... Women are out on the streets wearing Islamic headscarves ... rather than the all-encompassing burqa the Taliban required in the past." apnews.com/article/kabul-…
"When the Taliban last ruled the country, from 1996 to 2001, they banned television, music and even photography, but there’s no sign of that yet. TV stations are still operating normally and the Taliban fighters themselves can be seen taking selfies" apnews.com/article/kabul-…
"On Tuesday, the sound of dance music trickled out of an upscale wedding hall in Kabul, where a celebration was in full swing inside. Shadab Azimi, the 26-year-old manager, said at least seven wedding parties had been held since the Taliban takeover" apnews.com/article/kabul-…
Read 4 tweets
Shashank Joshi Profile picture
27 Aug
Afghanistan's land borders are going to get busier. "large numbers of people trying to flee Afghanistan have been gathering daily near Spin Boldak-Chaman, the only designated — and open — border crossing for refugees [into Pakistan]" nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…
"About 4,000 to 8,000 people cross the border there each day in typical times. Since the Taliban seized Kabul, the number of Afghans entering Pakistan has jumped threefold, according to Pakistani officials and tribal leaders." nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…
"An official ... said that the Pakistan government was currently allowing only Pakistani citizens, Afghans seeking medical treatment and people with proof of a right to refuge. No official statistics about how many people recently entered...are available." nytimes.com/live/2021/08/2…
Read 5 tweets

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