Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #aukus

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NEW: #China's leads world in high-impact research in 19 of 23 technologies, per new analysis by @ASPI_org

Analysis indicates #Biejing has a "commanding lead in #hypersonics, electronic warfare and in key undersea capabilities"
"In #hypersonics, undersea capabilities and electronic warfare, #China’s leads are so emphatic they create a significant risk that China might dominate future technological breakthroughs in these areas" per @ASPI_org
Also, "for some technologies, such as autonomous underwater vehicles, almost all of the leading research institutions are based in #China, where they generate nine times more high-impact research papers than their closest competitors in the #UnitedStates" per @ASPI_org
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Excited about PM @AlboMP upcoming visit to #Vietnam (and his @IISS_org #SLD2023 keynote!).

A short 🧵 from me about the 🇦🇺🇻🇳 relationship, its momentum, opportunities and future trajectory on the occasion of 50th anniversary 👇 1/
Fairly new-found strategic closeness under the Coalition gov resulted in a strategic partnership.
"The 2 countries are increasingly aligned in their strategic outlook and both find each other supportive and, frankly, useful, for their own strategic goals."…
#Australia has been a reliable partner in providing assistance to #Vietnam's #UN #peacekeeping forces, and it has supported #infrastructure in the vulnerable #Mekong region or donating #vaccines during #Covid #pandemic...
@FinancialReview 3/…
Read 8 tweets
Tomorrow, Sweden hosts the second EU – Indo-Pacific forum, gathering ministers and high-level representatives from around 60 countries.
A great display of the EU’s convening power, but what is the agenda and potential outcomes of such a broad format? A 🧵 1/13
#EUIndoPacific Picture: European Union in ...
This forum was instigated by 🇫🇷 during its presidency of the EU Council in Feb 22, in line with France’s efforts (along with others, 🇳🇱🇩🇪) to raise the EU’s profile in a region that is vital to its interests (40% of EU imports) and that faces many common challenges.
The first forum, in Paris, was hailed as a success. But from the onset, there have been debates on the format (mainly regarding 🇺🇸&🇨🇳) and the substance (what are the conducive topics for #EU-#IndoPacific cooperation). 3/13
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A pincer movement seems underway to spring #Assange before #Biden gets to Sydney—as hostility rises in Australia.

* Pressure from State Dept via Embassy on Assange camp
* Now pressure from Albanese for an Assange concession
* Hicks-style deal in prospect?

& #AUKUS unpopular
🧵 Image
2. And note the unpopularity of #AUKUS subs deal—seen as wastage of $360billion in face of collapse of public services, NDIS, Medicare, public education, slow disaster recovery, housing prices, rent rises, welfare payment real decline, rising homelessness.
Hence, pro-US PR…
🧵👇 Image
3. Unpopularity of the US alliance in Australia is hugely significant — 👉👉 recent polling shows that the majority of Australians do NOT support Australia joining the US in any more wars, whether in the Middle East or more significantly against China.
Read 7 tweets

#UN in Deep Crisis - Russian FM Lavrov

Sergey Lavrov opened his speech as chair of the #UNSC by declaring that the rules-based order... actually has... NO rules

Instead, unilateral sanctions have paralysed supply chains and seen international laws manipulated Image
🇷🇺's top diplomat went on to say the West has instead self-proclaimed dominance across the globe.

Here are some key points:

🔸 #AUKUS deal an extension of #NATO into Asian Pacific

🔸 #Washington embraced destroying current architecture of intl relations
🔸 🇺🇸 intervention in Indo-Pacific is to deter 🇨🇳 & isolate 🇷🇺

🔸 Complex of superiority dominant in minds of EU officials

🔸 🇺🇸 and 🇯🇵 remain silent on who bombed #Hiroshima and #Nagasaki, and the use of depleted #Uranium in #Yugoslavia
Read 4 tweets
Lets list in my opinion the worst decisions taken or nearly taken by largest navies around the world. #εpsilon Image
The #USNavy #Zumwaltclass destroyers were supposed to have #AGS capable of firing ultra long range 155mm shells, have no shells as they were canceled. Now, to re-add the X-factor the #USN is replacing AGS guns with VLS for upto 12 hypersonic missiles. Costing a lot of $$$$$$$$$s Image
Once the greatest #Navy on Earth, decided it was too great and powerful to have a ship mounted AShM. The #Brits decided #RoyalNavy could retire its #Harpoons without procuring a replacement anytime soon. Luckily , it didnt happen. This is why I feel #UK will cause #AUKUS to fail? Image
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The tale of two four half sisters, they should have #F35B but none have. The #Spanish Juan Carlos 1 class LHD was designed to be like the USMC Essex class LHDs which can launch an amphibious assault both from their well decks and their flight decks. ImageImage
They have a ski-jump which #Spanish AV-8B #Harrier use to fly off its deck, the #Australians and #Turks both decided to keep the ski-jump. #Australians never bought #F35B and #Turks were removed from the #F35 program altogether. Image
The #Turks plan on flying navalised Bayraktar drones off their decks while the #Australians have scrapped the idea of fixed wing aviation altogether. Maybe #AUKUS will motivate it to reconsider. ImageImage
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Join me online (Facebook - Marrickville Peace Group)
or at Marrickville TowHall at 4.45pm today AEST
for a discussion on the lies that lead to war, #AUKUS, US ForeignPolicy, geopolitical shifts, and #China
We cross to Col L Wilkerson in the US, who has told me (thread)
‘China so far is not a belligerent nation — actually, it need not be as its manufacturing capacity & thus its industrial base already surpasses that of any other country in the world…
China's supreme diplomat Wang Yi's recent orchestration of a rapprochement between Teheran ..
‘and Riyadh testifies to this reality. Today, it is the U.S. empire that is the belligerent.’

And on #AUKUS

‘In the sad fashion of the lapdog London's current government has become, AUKUS represents not a bulwark to check the bellicose rise of Beijing but a U.S. imperial…
Read 9 tweets
Did you catch the latest @CroakeyNews e-bulletin with a focus on unhealthy policies?

If not, no worries, here's a thread on this week's readings.

You can also subscribe to receive the e-bulletin every Thursday morning…
Don't miss this article on #RoboDebtRC in which this week's quotable comes from:

"The Robodebt debacle was the very opposite of healthy public policy – it was extraordinarily unhealthy public policy" – @baumfran

Also with comments from

@SharonFrielOz – "disempowerment is incredibly bad for people’s health"

@joanne_flavel – "#Robodebt was the antithesis of the purpose of income support"

Read 12 tweets
1) Detection tech could render submarines useless by 2050

If so, what does it mean for the #AUKUS nuclear sub pact?

If subs can be detected, they become easy targets: large, slow-moving and vulnerable to attack from the surface.…
2) Subs in the ocean are large, metallic anomalies that move in the upper portion of the water column.

As they pass through the water, they disturb it & change its physical, chemical & biological signatures. They even disturb Earth’s magnetic field & nuclear subs emit radiation.
3) We argue there is evidence submarines could dramatically reduce in effectiveness in the coming decades.

In other words, Australia risks investing in a nuclear ecosystem whose use-by date may be much earlier than we’d like. If we are to invest, we need to do so now.
Read 3 tweets
Yes, AUKUS will be big in coming decades but… the real deal (geographic factor alone) is the fast emerging JAPHUS alliance, as the
PHILIPPINES becomes a core element of a Japan-Phil-US trilateral alliance w/ immediate impact on TAIWAN… 🇹🇼🇵🇭🇯🇵🇺🇸🇦🇺 #Aukus #China
Both Senkaku 🇯🇵 & Mavulis 🇵🇭 are barely 100 nautical miles from Taiwan’s main shores..,
I predicted the coming alignment here:…
Read 5 tweets
For Australia, #AUKUS is a big bet, a big signal and a big lift. A 🧵 from me on the San Diego announcement:
The big bet is on the United States’ staying power in Asia. Mind you, it’s also a big bet by the United States on Australia. The sharing of nuclear secrets is as intimate as international relations gets. So, thanks @POTUS – your predecessor might not have done the same. /2
The big signal is ambition. Australia is often said to be a middle power, but this is not a middling move. We’re a significant power with regional and global interests, and we’re signalling our intention to shape our environment and contribute to Asia’s balance of power. /3
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▶️ The leaders of the #US, #UK, & #Australia have revealed details of the #AUKUS security pact, which includes providing Australia with nuclear-powered submarines.

Key details of the announcement👇🏻

@LevinaNeythiri @InsightGL @SandeepUnnithan @CovertShores
US will provide three Virginia-class subs to Australia in the early 2030s, a new nuclear sub design entering UK service in the late 2030s and Australian service in the early 2040s as well as a brand new basing agreement will give American subs a major strategic hub in the Pacific
Phase one, which will take effect immediately, focuses on preparing the Australians, both civilian and uniformed, to take control of a nuclear submarine force...
Read 16 tweets
Had to use this hilarious picture!! The #AUKUS program doesnt instill much confidence in me personally. The program was supposed to bring together the #USNavy , #RoyalNavy and the #AustralianNavy to build a #Nuclear sub fleet. What about #IndianNavy? #εpsilon Image
The #UK in post #Brexit is notorious for armed forces cut that make little sense. There were rumors that they might cut the fleet size of #Astutesubmarine and give 2-3 to #Australia in #AUKUS. The current plan hinges a lot on #UK being not #UK . Image
The US is letting go of its 3 #Virginiaclass production slots to sell the boats to #Australia in 2030s. This will be followed by #SSNAUKUS to be built from mid 2030s to 2040s. This program is highly dependent on UK not being UK and funding the new SSN development. Image
Read 6 tweets
The #AUKUS plan delivers capability in realistic but expedited stages: sovereign autonomous vehicles and rotational US & UK subs in the near term; Virginia class in the early 2030s; and the new British-led design after that. The deterrence effect starts early and builds.
This is a win for all three leaders:
🇦🇺gets capability faster with the Virginia class & then more ability to shape the boat design for its needs with British design,
🇺🇸gets stronger unity of technological & operation effort;
🇬🇧gets a needed boost to its own defence production
Criticism that Australia loses sovereignty by relying on the US and UK for the nuclear propulsion is silly. Australian fighter jets rely on the US and UK for engines. Australian subs rely on US torpedoes. #AUKUS
Read 4 tweets

some initial thoughts - a thread.

1. The move to a tri-lateral design and a UK-AUS build is a good one. The UK will deliver SSN AUKUS boat 1 helping to de-risk the Australian build. This is smart given the high risk of a first in class of any maritime platform. Smart
2. The decision to sell Aus Virginia's is massive. let not underestimate how fwd leaning this is from the US. Esp given the shortage of boast in the USN. This is integrated deterrence in action and a firm US commitment to this concept and Aust.
3. This pathway means that not all Collin's Class boat might have to get LOTE - possible only 4 out of 6. This will be a decision for a future govt but it provides flexibility and potential cost and workforce savings. it will also give some flex for a strategic reassessment later
Read 12 tweets
The #AUKUS Submarine Rotational Forces-West is the most important near-term contribution to bolstering deterrence in the Western Pacific in the entire AUKUS construct--and one of the most significant US and allied force posture steps in recent years. A short 🧵1/ Image
From 2027, the US and UK will build a rotational force of 4 Virginias & 1 Astute at HMAS Stirling in Western Australia. Assuming US subs come from CONUS -- rather than Guam -- and all 5 subs are present, this would double the number of allied SSNs west of the dateline by 2031 2/ Image
This kind of increase normally takes years. Currently, the US has 6 Virginias and 6 LA-class in Hawaii and 5 LA-class in Guam. Getting Guam from 0-3, then 3-5 subs wasn't easy. As AUS' Virginias come online from 2032, allied SSNs in West Pacific will reach 20 boats. That's big 3/ Image
Read 5 tweets
#AUKUS details confirmed by White House: 3-phase program. 1st - training to begin with Australians and US/UK subs (ASHEVILLE SSN758 already at Perth); Aussies are embedding in subs, nuke power schools, shipyards. Submarine Rotational Forces West will begin as early as 2027 with.. ImageImageImageImage
..US/UK subs operating fm Australia. 2nd: Early 2030s: 3 Virginia-class subs with option for 2 more will be sold to Australia ahead of RAN's Collins-class retirements. Late 2030s: "SSN AUKUS" to be built & deployed by both Australia & UK based on Britain's next-generation SSN... Image
..The first SSN AUKUS would be delivered to the British Royal Navy in the late 2030s; Australia will build its SSN AUKUS in Australia with first unit to be delivered in early 2040s. Upshot - Australia will operate both Virginia-class and next-gen British nuclear-powered subs
Read 4 tweets
President Biden meets on Monday with the leaders of Australia and Britain at a California naval base for an expected announcement of a nuclear submarines deal aimed at strengthening Western military muscle in the face of a rising China ➡️ #AUKUS
#BREAKING Australia to buy up to five US nuclear-powered submarines: US official
A landmark nuclear submarine pact between US, Australia & UK underscores concerns over growing Chinese military power, but it'll be years before the new vessels can help counter Beijing's efforts to expand its reach & influence
FOCUS piece by @wgdunlop
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1/. Looking forward to Govt’s refresh of #IntegratedReview today - and early signs we might match the sophistication of #China’s foreign policy with a framework for strategic stability - as proposed by @MrKRudd. Last few days has seen - at last - return of mature analysis….
2/. Here’s @nytimes: US “interests are best served by emphasizing competition… while minimizing confrontation. Glib invocations of the Cold War are misguided... Rather than try to trip the competition, US should focus on figuring out how to run faster…’…
3/. And here’s @MaxBoot in
@washingtonpost “With U.S.-China tensions ratcheting up at a dangerous rate, the select committee could perform a real service by presenting a balanced and nuanced picture of how the United States should deal with China.”…
Read 11 tweets
NEW: #China's spy balloon "put on full display what we've long recognized - the PRC has become more repressive at home & more aggressive abroad" @DeputySecState Wendy Sherman tells lamwmakers

"It reinforced the need for us to double down on our strategy-invest, align, compete "
.@StateDept "modernizing our mobilize our embassies and resources to take on this challenge" from #China, per @DeputySecState

Sherman says US working w/like-minded countries across the #IndoPacific & beyond, sharing intel showing threat posed by PRC
#Taiwan-"We remain committed to out long-standing One #China policy & oppose any unilateral changes to the cross strait status quo" per @DeputySecState
Read 14 tweets
#SubmarineForce - #RAN🇦🇺⚓️

🧵 relatif au programme SSN🇦🇺 : le Minister for Defence et 19th Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, Richard Marles (23 mai 2022), et la Minister for Foreign Affairs, Penny Wong (23 mai 2022), sont en France (30 janvier 2022) en format « 2+2 ».

📚 Henri Biaujout, « France-Australie: après la crise des sous-marins, le difficile retour de la confiance », Le Figaro, 29 janvier 2023,….
➡️ Ce voyage des deux ministres 🇦🇺 passera également par la Belgique et le Royaume-Uni (Australia-United Kingdom Ministerial Consultations (#AUKMIN), les 1ier et 2 février 2023, à Londres et à Portsmouth.
Read 14 tweets
🇨🇳🇯🇵🇷🇺⚡️Japan is making a futile attempt to turn the Central Asian states against Russia and China.
#japan #china #russia #taiwan #ukraine #ukrainewar #usa #nato #aukus #unitedstates #pacific #southchinasea
The opinion was shared by Global Times Chinese journalist Fan Anzi, who said that Japan's recent talks with the foreign ministers of five Central Asian countries were an attempt to pit these countries against China and Russia.
Japan is trying to expand its influence and military presence in the Indo-Pacific region and Central Asia and hopes to push China and Russia out of it.
Read 4 tweets
Yesterday @EmmanuelMacron and @sanchezcastejon signed a Friendship Treaty between 🇫🇷 and 🇪🇸

The 🇫🇷 President will then host 🇩🇪 @Bundeskanzler Scholz on Sunday, before welcoming 🇬🇧 PM @RishiSunak on March 10th

What is the strategic significance of this busy bilateral agenda?🧵 Image
Each of these summits has its own bilateral rationale. But they are also illustrative of 🇫🇷 multilayered approach of collective security alongside #NATO and the🇪🇺 #EU, and of President Macron’s willingness to reconnect the dots between main Western Europe capitals. 2/16
With Spain, the Friendship Treaty raises the relation to the highest level, on par with 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹. It confirms 🇪🇸 centrality, as it hosted the last NATO Summit, will chair the next EU Council and host the third European Political Community #EPC summit in the second half of 2023
Read 17 tweets

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