Thread by @DavidTaggart

An update to the classic "what happens if you miss the 10 best days in the market" where advisors tell you that "it is not timing the market but time IN the market that matters"

But here we show the other side where you can also miss the 10 WORST days in the market.

All of this is just using the SPY ETF from 3/1/93-9/16/21

B&H=909.87%
Miss the 10 WORST days=2321.47%
Miss the 10 BEST days=356.96%

I will post the SP500 later going WAY farther back-would include 1987 for instance-but the results are telling.

Missing the 10 WORST days helps you earn 2.55x the market return

Missing the 10 BEST days and you earn 0.39x the market return.

Drawdowns for all 3

and by popular demand if you miss best 10 and worst 10 days you beat the market by a bit.

drawdowns missing 10 best and worst days

Returns and multiple of B&H

Max drawdowns for each

what does all of this show? There can be value in active management, in pricing risk, etc. No one times everything perfectly but if you want lower drawdowns then doing some "timing" or whatever you want to call it can add a LOT of value.

and as some have commented there is a LOT of clustering of best/worst days.

11 of the 20 best/worst days came in the 08-09 period

6 from 2020

1 from 2002

1 from 1998

1 from 1997

and this is all with SPY which didnt exist before 1993.

In a few days I will do the SP500 back to the time of Moses or whatever. That gets more interesting as you have classic events like 1987 and even action from 1929.

Good times