Thread by @WillHayCardiff

Right the potential issues with the Covid Pass.

The Welsh Gov have said from 11 October people attending nightclubs and many events in Wales will be required to show a Covid Pass to get in.

There are serious questions to answer however:

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Countries like France have already got vaccine passports. In Scotland people over the age of 18 will need to show they have had both doses of the vaccine before they are allowed entry to certain venues and events.

However unlike these examples, Wales’ Covid Pass simply isn’t a vaccine passport.

This is because though the pass will show if someone is double vaccinated, it will also allow people to enter if they have had a negative lateral flow test in the last 48 hours.

There are serious questions to be asked about this.

First and foremost is the questionable idea that this will do anything to increase the level of vaccination. If someone isn’t vaccinated by this point they have most likely made a conscious decision not to be jabbed.

In many places in Wales you can simply walk into a vaccination centre and get a needle in your arm, no appointment is needed.

They have chosen not to.

If you want to get these people jabbed you need to do more.

In France the “Pass Sanitaire” is not a legal obligation but is required when going to the cinema, dining out, drinking in a bar, visiting a hospital (not for emergencies) and traveling on long distance trains.

Though it faced protests, this has driven up vaccination rates.

Allowing people to take a lateral flow test instead of being vaccinated is a work around that many people are likely to take.

If they are not jabbed yet, there will be a reason.

This does nothing to drive up vaccination rates for the majority.

This brings us onto the second issue - the lateral flow tests themselves.

If the main aim of bringing in the Covid pass is to control the virus then there are serious questions to answer about allowing the lateral flow tests to be a form of proof.

The issue is around reliability. A recent Review combining the results of multiple studies, found their average sensitivity was 72% among people with Covid symptoms, and 58% for people without symptoms.

Therefore, a negative lateral flow test cannot guarantee you are not infected with Covid however there is strong evidence that if you get a positive result it is very likely accurate because false positives are very rare.

The other issue is that there is zero oversight over whether people are properly registering the result.

IT IS SOOO EASY TO CHEAT.

In order to “register” your lateral flow tests all you need is the QR code at the top - you don’t even have to do the test itself. This leaves a big gaping hole in the Covid Pass plan.

Now of course all conscientious people will likely take their test properly, register it, and isolate appropriately if positive.

But some people do not care whether they are more likely to infect others.

I have interviewed people who have straightforwardly said they do not think Covid is a risk to them, therefore they can’t be bothered to be vaccinated - despite the fact being vaccinated protects others

The idea that some of these people will either: A) take their lateral flow test properly, or B) miss an event they may have spent £100s on to protect others is, IMO, naive.

There is an argument that the Welsh Government has done neither one thing or the other here.

They are massively inconveniencing many people and businesses but without the benefits that would come from full vaccine passports.

Now there are arguments to their defence. For example, many people can’t get vaccinated for health reasons.

The lateral flow option lets them continue to live normal lives. Also there is the ethical argument that making people inject something into their body they don’t want is unfair.

Plus Mark Drakeford is long on the record as saying that convincing people is always more effective and fosters more good will than mandatory vaccination.

But this halfway house risks adding all of the bureaucratic difficulties with fewer for the actual rewards of vaccine passports.