I'm starting a thread for stray thoughts about the #自民党総裁選.
Kono's popularity and quirky communication style mask the extent to which he's actually quite similar to Suga. Very good with the details of policy, less good at the "vision thing." This was one of the striking things about his book.
Kishida has declared an end to neoliberal policy, but he's about ten years too late. Abe just wasn't a neoliberalism; his legacy is neo-statism.

foreignaffairs.com/articles/japan…
It is striking to me just how much anxiety is on display in this campaign. I haven't seen enough of Noda yet, but every candidate is talking about a sea of troubles to varying degrees.
Here's Kishi Nobuo saying exactly that in an endorsement of Takaichi:
Abe liked to talk about "breaking through" crises, but his tenure is looking like a Goldlilocks period.

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More from @observingjapan

18 Sep
The LDP's campaign website includes the "manifestos" for each of the candidates. Here's a brief guide.
1) Noda Seiko (@noda_seiko93)
Slogan: Politics that can be understood by anyone
She's less a moderate than an outright liberal, particularly in the LDP. Her statement is focused on fostering a "paradigm shift" that accommodates a more diverse society.
…in.jp-east-2.storage.api.nifcloud.com/sousai21/pdf/n…
Her platform is to "trust the experts" on Covid-19; realize child-centered politics; fairness towards women, the elderly, persons with disabilities, LGBTQ (allow separate surnames); endorses decarbonization, focuses on renewables but nothing about nuclear.
Read 35 tweets
17 Sep
Definitely keep an eye on this spreadsheet tracking which MPs are supporting which candidate.
Suffice to say, the path to Kono -- or any candidate -- winning in the first round is exceedingly narrow.
That's based not just on the estimated MP votes but also after playing around with the trust D'Hondt method PR calculator. icon.cat/util/elections
Read 9 tweets
17 Sep
I turn it on and immediately hear Kono talking about the importance of following the data, which is very on brand.
Candidates
This is kind of amusing and very Japanese TV. They're holding placards showing who they want to question.
Read 7 tweets
14 Sep
Because I'm a glutton for punishment, I've started reading Takaichi Sanae's newly released campaign book.
Let's just say that it takes only a few pages before she starts essentializing about Japan.
The title itself is explicit homage to Abe: 美しく、強く、成長する国へ. Not just towards a beautiful country, but towards a beautiful, strong, and growing country.
Read 43 tweets
12 Sep
Kono on Fuji TV's Mr Sunday.
Naturally, he says that the LDP leader should be able to speak directly to the public, have the support of the public.
Asked what he saw as absolutely necessary to do in office, he starts with Covid and then launches into a defense of the vaccination campaign.
Read 8 tweets
12 Sep
The share of the electorate that says they will vote for the LDP in the general election rose ten points, to 53% (!). In case there were any doubt about Suga's impact down ballot...
The question is how the LDP's choice affects that number going forward. But the window of opportunity for the opposition is closing.
Some other data points from the Nikkei poll:
-72% say that Suga's decision to exit was proper (which is actually lower than the 88% who approved of Abe's decision last year)
Read 7 tweets

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