Definitely keep an eye on this spreadsheet tracking which MPs are supporting which candidate.
https://twitter.com/oohamazaki/status/1438974793286512640
Suffice to say, the path to Kono -- or any candidate -- winning in the first round is exceedingly narrow.
That's based not just on the estimated MP votes but also after playing around with the trust D'Hondt method PR calculator. icon.cat/util/elections
There are roughly 1.1 million eligible LDP voters this time. If roughly two-thirds cast ballots -- a reasonable assumption, although it's hard to find data on turnout in the past -- Kono could win 50% of the vote and receive 192 of the party supporter votes.
That's higher than he's currently polling, but still useful for useful illustrative purposes.
That would leave him needing another 194 votes from the parliamentarians, 129 more than he currently has in the spreadsheet above. It would require his winning all but 70 of the 179 undeclared candidates in the spreadsheet, or prying away supporters from others.
It's a fluid race, a lot can happen in two weeks, but a) I think there's going to be a runoff (duh), b) that probably makes Kishida the slight favorite, c) while every potential vote could matter, I'm not sure it would be that different without Noda in the race.
The PR popular vote just makes it really hard to win in the first round without being the overwhelming favorite in the grassroots and with the insiders.
But then, as Koizumi's political guru Iijima suggested the other day, if the LDP were to vote against the popular vote winner in the second round, particularly if the popular vote winner received an impressive margin, there could be a price to pay. nikkansports.com/m/general/news…
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