The reason I've selected these points is that they are relative to the local move itself rather than the sharp drop in price previously
We're now trading at the 0.236 key level
I've thrown on the Fixed Range Volume Profile tool that is available for free on @tradingview
You just pull this from A to B of where you want to explore volume.
The red and white bars give you the value area of a move. This is where 70% of the volume has traded in this area.
You're also given a Point of Control as well with the tool, which is where the most volume occured within this 70% selected area.
The Value Area is shown in the white rectangle in the above tweet.
The Point of Control gives good resistance and support generally.
Now what we've done is effed off the FRVP (red and white bars) and have now lined up a parallel channel to trade to
You place the channel at the most suitable areas given the market structure presented to you.
It's flexible in interpretation.
You usually long the bottom of a channel and then short the top, taking profits entirely or partially at the mid point
It's all about confluence baby, so let's throw some more fibs down.
We find price trading at the 0.705 of the overall move here as well as being at the bottom of a channel, and at the 0.236 level of the HTF fibs we had on before (not shown for clarity)
But... what else was residing at the bottom of the channel?
Eff me dead, it's a naked point of control that's now been claimed by price action.
See how we're building a picture now?
Nearly there.
Let's also throw on the VPVR and see what this is showing.
Point of control and similar Value Area (well, let's be honest, we didn't zoom out much further, so didn't expect it to be too different)
So for me, this is a long confirmed.
Entry?
- Bottom of channel
Exit?
- Point of Control / Top of Channel
Take Profits?
- Mid channel / Top of Channel
One more thing:
When pulling fibs from swing high to low, we also find some resisting confluence at our level of 0.705
This will work until is doesn't.
Ie channel bashing is great until your short fails or your long does, but if you catch a few trades along the way, then it shouldn't matter if you're risking 1% at a time right?
Risk management is key.
Thanks for reading.
🤝🍻
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Here's my 100 weeks of backtested $EURUSD price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, here's what is covered:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
Took me a while, hope you enjoy
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 38/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 31/100 occurrences
Note that there's during the week, there's more of a spread compared to $BTC
Percentage / Chance wise, you can see that Monday is more likely to be the low of the week by a factor of 5, 2, and 3 compared to a T, W, or Th respectively
Friday is different though.
With the high of the wk, Monday leads, followed by a Thurs, then Friday.
I made a free Price Action course not long ago - I'll share some detailed threads on portions of the course so you don't have to spend hours watching them when trading #Bitcoin & #Altcoins
We'll jump ahead to Module 4 - Ranges & Targets.
Why? Because I loved sharing this one!
What's in a Range?
A range is simply defined by anchoring two points on a chart based on:
A timeframe (daily, weekly, monthly etc)
Market structure
Or a combination of both
The method I use to anchor the range is a Fibonacci Tool, with values set at 1, 0.5, and 0
Range Tool Setup 1/1
1) First Select the 3rd item down on the left hand side menu
Then select "Fib Retracement"
2) Open up the settings of the Fib Retracement Tool, then set up the Fib tool to show the 0, 1, and 0.5 levels
The Trend Continuation fibs - covered in upcoming Module 3
Of course these are originally based on the ICT fibs, but nuanced per the following for #crypto & #bitcoin
- 0.72 entry point
- A negative 0.12 level
- 0.28 level
Why though?
The 0.72 Entry Point:
The reason for this is simple - it's the mid point of the 0.66 and 0.786 levels of the fib, where I've personally found much better entries and setups using this
The negative 0.12 level:
Included in this particular suite of fibs because you're looking for a get in, get out move that simply beats previous market structure.
By entering at the 0.72 level, this -0.12 level yields a 3RR move if the SL is at 1.
I backtested 100 weeks of $BTC #bitcoin price action from June 15 2020 to 09 May 2022, was able to determine the below:
- Occurrence of high & low of the week
- % of high and low of the week per day
- % of Mondays high / low being swept on a given day
8 hrs of research for you:
The high and low of the week
Here we can determine that the low of the week fell 43/100 times on a Mon, while the high of the week was also most likely to form on this day too with 27/100 occurrences
The rest of the days are generally similar, bar Tuesday lows & weekend highs
Percentage / Chance wise, it's obviously a no brainer in the fact that given the sample data of 100 weeks, that the % are simply a given of the numbers above