Here’s my understanding of what happened on the sub deal. There were problems between Australia and France on their 2016 deal. It was over budget and late. Part of this is in the nature of such projects. France thought it was mainly haggling over cost but for Australia it was…
…more existential. They worried they would end up paying more for a submarine that would appear late and be less capable and more expensive than an SSN. Such a submarine might have no survivability in the 2030 and 2040s in their view.
Earlier this year, Australia approached the UK about switching to a nuclear powered subs. The UK then approached the United States. The Biden administration asked the Australians to cancel the deal with France and then negotiate with them but the Australians…
….did not want to go that route for reasons I can only guess at. Canberra believed France had gotten the message and wouldn’t be surprised. For this reason, the US underestimated the degree of French anger & assessed that it was not shared by the rest of the EU (still unclear).
Their view is that this was an Australian decision based on their changing strategic circumstances and a deteriorating environment. They are still very committed to working with the EU and France in particular on China/ Asia but it is not clear that that will cut it.
I will add to this thread as I learn more.
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