Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

Imagine how climate policy might look if instead of CO2 emissions as the metric to be directly managed we instead focused on more concrete, manageable metrics, like power plants (start with coal)

Achieving net-zero coal power would be much easier to manage/track & harder to game

The focus on management of CO2 emissions (an outcome of many complex processes) as the centerpiece of climate policy can be traced to viewing climate change through models (going back to the Bretherton diagram) and thinking through policy via IAMs & confusing models for reality

Imagine instead a power plant treaty

Part A: Net-Zero coal
Part B: Net-Zero gas

Coal & gas are of course not all emissions, about 2/3 of total from energy

But there is no requirement that all emissions must be regulated under a single policy, that complexity is a choice

A power plant treaty for achieving net-zero coal & gas would be so much easier to propose and track progress on

It would also lay bare serious commitments & unserious commitments much easier than today's focus on emissions

CO2 is ridiculously easy to manage in an IAM - not enough policy? No worries, here is a knob for BECCS!

In the real world the vast majority of emissions are the result of specific technologies

Managing technologies via policy is much more straightforward than managing outputs

Germany has demonstrated that a coal phase-out is possible (as a politically accepted plan)

Every country could use whatever policies they think make the most sense to achieve the result

Could be an instrument under FCCC/Paris

Like Paris, a power plant treaty would collect commitments, track progress, facilitate tech transfer & any burden-sharing

Any country unwilling to commit to a timeline for a coal phase-out would obviously not presently be serious about net-zero