There are 2 questions here: 1. Is it real? It is, & case-control studies have shown this 2. What is it? We need to listen to those with lived experience to understand this.
We should all be worried about 11,000 kids reporting persistent symptoms for a yr regardless of 'controls'.
I disagree that we need a control to study every syndrome in every study. Once we've established the syndrome exists, we need to listen to those with lived experience, investigate it carefully to understand what it is. This is how clinical medicine described new syndromes.
Important not to dismiss people's lived experience. Or trivialise it because we cannot prove a counterfactual scenario for children who have been suffering for over a year after they got infected. If you have a control group, fine. If you don't, it's still very important.
There are clear temporal associations with development of symptoms in people post-COVID-19. People who were fit and healthy and now can't get out of bed post-infection. They shouldn't have to prove a counterfactual scenario to be taken seriously.
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Where to start with the evidence? Would suggest reading these excellent pieces by @NafeezAhmed
But I guess you probably know all this, given you've been working with them for while? And platforming them.
Seeing a lot of minimisation of long COVID again by the usual players based on recent ONS data - interesting that the same people suggesting no one understand ONS methodology, don't seem to have questioned why ONS estimates have changed as much as they have, or what they mean.🧵
So let's get right to it. The ONS infection survey is a very good survey for infection and picks this up through sampling random households in the community. The long COVID survey looks at those who tested positive ~21K people, and compares them to matched controls who were -ve
They ask both groups to answer question about whether they have 1 in 12 symptoms. These symptoms are limited, and don't include things like brain fog, or mood changes, or palpitations, and many other common symptoms of long COVID.
It beggars belief that a member of SAGE (Viner) has written an article in @guardian that references the widely debunked Hoeg preprint estimate of vaccine associated myocarditis and used for modelling risk-benefits of vaccines for kids. Please retract this. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
There are basic standards for rigour in science, and this article doesn't meet them. I don't understand how this got through editorial, given many of us flagged this issue when this paper was platformed in the Guardian. Thorough critique from @gorskon here sciencebasedmedicine.org/dumpster-divin…
We simply cannot have scientific advisors and paediatricians who advise government quoting very flawed estimates based on very flawed methods - when assessing benefits and risks. This is misinforming the public- and is completely reckless.
Just did a rather disappointing radio interview on 'living with the virus' and 'acceptable deaths'. I'm honestly so tired of this- I think it's abhorrent & is a statement that's often made by privileged white men who're very unlikely to see the consequences in their own lives.
Vaccines doesn't mean we let 1000 people die each wk, 1000 people go into hospital daily, and tens of thousands develop long COVID each week, when simple things like masks, ventilation, better TTIS systems would save so many people from death & suffering, why would we accept it?
I often wonder if we're so happy to accept this because the people impacted are the ones who're generally let down by govts and society- the least privileged, the poorest, the most vulnerable, and the marginalised.
I've heard some scientists/paediatricians state that the vast majority of children are 'immune' to SARS-CoV-2 infection. There is no current evidence to support this. They seem to be conflating *exposure* with *immunity*. Current serology from PHE puts Abs in 17-19 yr olds at 25%
And no, 1 dose wouldn't be sufficient - given the vast majority are unlikely to have antibodies, and even less likely to be immune against delta...
Believe it or not, immunity after exposure wanes... And starting levels of Abs are often lower in kids who have milder/asymptomatic acute infection.
Current advice put forward by CMOs once again shows a blinkered focus on rare typically mild side-effects of vaccines rather than the substantial benefits of vaccines against long COVID. What evidence do they have that 1 dose is the best strategy in terms of benefits vs risks?
Worth noting here that JCVI still haven't released even their limited analysis examining hospitalisations and ICUs despite the CMO yesterday quoting this, and endorsing it? Surely, given these decisions involved children's healths & lives, these calculations should be released.
And an explanation for why long COVID was not considered, despite more than enough evidence that it affects children. It's interesting that they cite 'uncertainty' for a reason not considering it but do consider 'uncertainty' around improbable long-term impacts of vaccination....