The real question is whether "the west" with the leading actors US, UK, France and Germany can come to a new consensus in which each country feels that its most pressing national interests are represented. That implies a number of difficult trade-offs for each country.
Only if those big western four find such a new consensus, they will be able to with the powerplay of China and Russia, and lead the liberal-democratic order towards its next level.
Until now, no real effort has been undertaken by these four key capitals to align themselves in this new geopolitical environment. Everybody tends to be picky and likes to blame the other for not making the first step.
Which leaves plenty of space to those countries who are eager to play divide-and-rule with the west, China and Russia.
If the current crisis helps to focus people's minds in Washington, Paris, London and Berlin on the big picture -- divided we fall --, than it may help bring about a renewal of the west that is overdue.
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If the competition with China is becoming the overall paradigm, Europeans should welcome the fact that Australia now may get something similar to what many Europeans got from the US during the Cold War and afterwards, vital support for their security.
A stronger US security role in the Indo-Pacific also helps discouraging China from challenging the status quo in the region -- something Beijing does since many years in the South China Sea.
AUKUS can also be read as a sign that the Biden administration has given up hope that the EU, namely France and Germany, will become key partners in a joint strategy to push back against China. By pushing CAI with Beijing, Berlin and Paris have sent an early signal to Biden.
As US efforts to bring the EU on board with regard to China haven't really succeeded, the Biden administration had decided to follow up on the Australian/British offer to deepen and widen defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
Frustrating Paris has apparently been seen as an acceptable prize, as France was unwilling to join the US re China.
For both bigger European continental powers, France and Germany, the US-UK-Australian pact is raising new geopolitical questions: Are the US and the UK moving beyond the traditional transatlantic framework? If that's the case, where will Paris and Berlin position themselves?
Are they ready to join this move towards the Indo-Pacific, and to confront China? What's the future of the "war on terror" in the Greater Middle East, and who will defend the "eastern flank" against Russian aggression?
It is far from clear that France and Germany are going to be on the same page in this new, emerging geopolitical environment. Germany will be concerned about the East, France will try to continue to play a role in the South. Both need strong partners.
Entscheidend ist doch, dass die politische Führung gute Analyse und Handlungsempfehlungen auch nachfragt, gerade auch solche, die nicht dem Groupthink / Mainstream entspricht, der oft mehr den politischen Bedürfnissen entspricht.
Im Fall Afghanistan ist das Problem die bereitwillige Unmündigkeit, dass man Analyse, Strategie und dergleichen nur allzu gerne den USA überlassen hat, um keine eigenen Entscheidungen treffen zu müssen, für die man dann auch hätte geradestehen müssen.
All das sind nicht Probleme der institutionellen Anordnung, sondern Probleme fehlender aussenpolitischer Kultur: dass die Kanzlerin sich erlauben konnte, Afghanistan-Probleme zu ignorieren und auszusitzen und nicht gefordert wurde von Öffentlichkeit, Parlament, Ministern.
How are Afghanistans secular autocratic neighbors, namely Russia and China, going to react to the Taliban takeover? A bit of speculation.
First they will be happy that western militaries are gone from their neighborhood, and be delighted about the bad way the withdrawal is being handled, and watch with pleasure the self-flagellation of the west about its own failure (and add ammunition to it).
Second, they will be nervous about a resurgence of radical islam in their region and in their countries. Western intervention brought some stability and was a counterweight to radical islam. Now the floodgates may open again.
Afghanistan: "ultimate responsibility for the current state of affairs stretches much further back in time to at least the Bonn Conference held shortly after the defeat of the Taliban in 2001"
"the problem lay in the prior decision to create an Afghan state in the first place—that is, a Weberian state that aspired to a monopoly of legitimate force over a defined territory"
"There was another available alternative, which was to stabilize the country under a coalition of local warlords and tribal militias."