What the subs deal was about: Canberras willingness to align itself over the long term with Washington.

That's something Europeans should be able to relate to.
If the competition with China is becoming the overall paradigm, Europeans should welcome the fact that Australia now may get something similar to what many Europeans got from the US during the Cold War and afterwards, vital support for their security.
A stronger US security role in the Indo-Pacific also helps discouraging China from challenging the status quo in the region -- something Beijing does since many years in the South China Sea.
That's something Europe cannot, and doesn't want, to provide to a country such as Australia.
A European role can only be supportive of the US and of US security partners in the region; but it will always be minor and often symbolic.
That does not excuse the heavy-handed way the US, the UK and Australia have dealt with France; which they have the obligation to repair (and maybe France could tone down its rhetoric).
But it would be a huge mistake for Europe to mix two different things: the ugly way the French subs contract was canceled, and the value the new Aukus pact brings to the Indo-Pacific.
At the end of the day, Europeans must figure out how they want to deal with China; and the Indo-Pacific is a central part of this.
What Aukus means, it seems, is that the US is finally getting serious with its "pivot to Asia" -- a move that was driven by Chinese neighbors getting nervous about China's new assertiveness.
Europeans should figure out to what extent they want to be part of this, what role they want to play in the Indo-Pacific. The new EU Indo-Pacific strategy does not seriously address security; that's something the capitals must sort out.

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More from @ulrichspeck

20 Sep
If Macron wins a second term, he should reboot his foreign policy. All his foreign policy ambitions have run into deep trouble:
- to pacify the Sahel, namely Mali;
- to become America's key European partner on eye level;
- to reset relations with Russia;
- to become Europe's leader on strategic affairs;
- to reassert French (independent) power in the Indo-Pacific
Interesting to note that French and German foreign policies both seem to have reached a dead end at the same time. Both are, as the UK does, struggling to find a new role in a new era of competition; and all three tend to move towards their traditional comfort zone.
Read 9 tweets
18 Sep
The real question is whether "the west" with the leading actors US, UK, France and Germany can come to a new consensus in which each country feels that its most pressing national interests are represented. That implies a number of difficult trade-offs for each country.
Only if those big western four find such a new consensus, they will be able to with the powerplay of China and Russia, and lead the liberal-democratic order towards its next level.
Until now, no real effort has been undertaken by these four key capitals to align themselves in this new geopolitical environment. Everybody tends to be picky and likes to blame the other for not making the first step.
Read 5 tweets
18 Sep
AUKUS can also be read as a sign that the Biden administration has given up hope that the EU, namely France and Germany, will become key partners in a joint strategy to push back against China. By pushing CAI with Beijing, Berlin and Paris have sent an early signal to Biden.
As US efforts to bring the EU on board with regard to China haven't really succeeded, the Biden administration had decided to follow up on the Australian/British offer to deepen and widen defense cooperation in the Indo-Pacific.
Frustrating Paris has apparently been seen as an acceptable prize, as France was unwilling to join the US re China.
Read 6 tweets
16 Sep
For both bigger European continental powers, France and Germany, the US-UK-Australian pact is raising new geopolitical questions: Are the US and the UK moving beyond the traditional transatlantic framework? If that's the case, where will Paris and Berlin position themselves?
Are they ready to join this move towards the Indo-Pacific, and to confront China? What's the future of the "war on terror" in the Greater Middle East, and who will defend the "eastern flank" against Russian aggression?
It is far from clear that France and Germany are going to be on the same page in this new, emerging geopolitical environment. Germany will be concerned about the East, France will try to continue to play a role in the South. Both need strong partners.
Read 7 tweets
18 Aug
Entscheidend ist doch, dass die politische Führung gute Analyse und Handlungsempfehlungen auch nachfragt, gerade auch solche, die nicht dem Groupthink / Mainstream entspricht, der oft mehr den politischen Bedürfnissen entspricht.
Im Fall Afghanistan ist das Problem die bereitwillige Unmündigkeit, dass man Analyse, Strategie und dergleichen nur allzu gerne den USA überlassen hat, um keine eigenen Entscheidungen treffen zu müssen, für die man dann auch hätte geradestehen müssen.
All das sind nicht Probleme der institutionellen Anordnung, sondern Probleme fehlender aussenpolitischer Kultur: dass die Kanzlerin sich erlauben konnte, Afghanistan-Probleme zu ignorieren und auszusitzen und nicht gefordert wurde von Öffentlichkeit, Parlament, Ministern.
Read 4 tweets
17 Aug
How are Afghanistans secular autocratic neighbors, namely Russia and China, going to react to the Taliban takeover? A bit of speculation.
First they will be happy that western militaries are gone from their neighborhood, and be delighted about the bad way the withdrawal is being handled, and watch with pleasure the self-flagellation of the west about its own failure (and add ammunition to it).
Second, they will be nervous about a resurgence of radical islam in their region and in their countries. Western intervention brought some stability and was a counterweight to radical islam. Now the floodgates may open again.
Read 5 tweets

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