It’s become clear from reports in the last few days that Australia has been deceiving 🇫🇷 for as long as the last 18 months.

Countries can play hard ball on commercials interests - everyone does it, incl. the 🇫🇷.

But such an action by allies on defence pacts is something else.
The upshot of this is the 🇫🇷 will conclude that in foreign policy terms Biden is continuity Trump. But the 🇫🇷 have always been less dewey-eyed about the US anyway.

🇫🇷 will strengthen focus on EU & assume that 🇦🇺 isn’t a serious dependable ally.

What does this mean for 🇬🇧?
The AUKUS stuff will please the anti-EUers but less reported on is how little 🇬🇧 benefits from this. 🇺🇸 will get lion share of any new contract while 🇬🇧, reliant on 🇫🇷 good will for so many things: immigration control, trade flows etc will simply think Britain an reliable sh*t.
I suspect 🇺🇸 & 🇫🇷 won’t fall out too badly. They’ll come to an arrangement. The 🇦🇺 have lost the only European ally that’s a serious Pacific player.
But 🇬🇧 won’t gain anything apart from a commercial thrown bone perhaps.

The 🇫🇷 tho will assume there’s no real ally to had in 🇬🇧.
This may feel good for some but strategically this makes no sense.
From 2016, 🇬🇧 military was 1 of the few cards 🇬🇧 could play in leveraging EU acquiesce in other areas.

By doing this 🇫🇷 will assume 🇬🇧 isn’t to be trusted.
& European defence pacts without the 🇫🇷 don’t happen.
Brexit never made sense but a 🇬🇧 using its military in an Anglo-French led wider European security space would’ve been a smart move & bought huge goodwill + acquiescence from Europeans.

What’s 🇬🇧 plan now?
Making an enemy of 🇫🇷 in order to get a few $ on 🇦🇺 sub parts contracts?
In global terms tho the west including Europe is also the loser.

The 🇨🇳 & 🇷🇺 will conclude that the post Trump west is not as solid as was assumed.

Nothing much good for Europe will come from this.
& neither I doubt for 🇺🇸 or 🇦🇺 either.

/ends

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More from @nicktolhurst

16 Sep
Many people still after 5 years don’t get it.
Return of imperial measurements is not a “dead cat”.
It’s a way of punishing the young & the educated.

Just as Brexit isn’t Brexit unless foreigners suffer even if we don’t expel them.
The point is to make their lives more difficult.
It’s a war.
In which there’s no economic gains for most people, so in order for Brexit to be a success “they” must suffer.

Ever additional form an EUer has to fill out satisfies the desire to inflict pain. As does inflicting imperial weights on the young.

The pain is the point.
I keep telling you this but you still don’t learn from history.

In 1930s Germany 90% of people had no idea what state-corporatist-nationalism was. They didn’t care either.

But a “permission to transgress” & the chance to “inflict pain” on others was what led them there.
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
Gavin Williamson has informed staff at the Dept for Education that he’s leaving the department.

As part of his demotion he was offered Northern Ireland by Boris Johnson.

The most sensitive job in the most sensitive part of UK at its most sensitive time in its last 2 decades.
I should add this has not been officially confirmed yet - depends if Williamson wants to accept it.

In parliamentary lore “going to Northern Ireland” is not something that usually precedes a stellar rise to the high offices of state. It usually signals the end of a career.
Now hearing that Gavin Williamson turned down Northern Ireland job, which makes Johnson’s reshuffle a bit more complicated.

This could drag on about…perhaps even into tomorrow..
Read 14 tweets
13 Sep
One of the worst debates is the climate change one.

It’s fought on risk/cost but regardless of how bad it turns out much of the cost of going carbon neutral is not really a cost drag but substituting out of resources that make people ill, deform environment & fund awful regimes.
In other words the idea that tackling climate change is a very high cost that’s either worth it or not (depending on your view) is not the whole story.

The benefits of a greener run world are huge even if current climate change projections turn out to be a bit alarmist.
Much of the fraught oil debate resembles people worried about what cutting down on smoking will do to the tobacco industry.

Both tobacco & oil are “deadweight industries” that add little in technological advances & money spent on them could be more productively spent elsewhere.
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
Question for those obsessing about "Northern redwall seats":

Which area has the highest number of those 32 most marginal Tory held seats, Labour need to win to get Johnson out:

1. North West
2. North East
3. Wales
4. Yorkshire/Humber
5. W. Midlands
6. E. Midlands
....and the answer for, I'm guessing many of you, will be quite surprising....
Here a handy hint.
In population size from highest to lowest:

N. West - 7,341 000
W. Midlands - 5,934 000
Yorkshire + Humber - 5,502 000
E. Midlands - 4,835 000
Wales - 3,113 000
N. East - 2,669 000
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
+UPDATE+

Conservative internal polling as well as an Electoral Calculus survey has revealed the Tories stand to lose "in excess of 50 seats" to Labour under current polling.

This is an addition to a number of southern seats expected to drop to the LibDems at the next election.
This fits into what ive been saying for sometime:

LibDem top 20 target seats are virtually all Tory held with small margins
Labour focussing on the top 50 Tory held small marginal seats..

..can deliver quite efficiently a change in govt.
Again, as Ive said before,...the trick to using this is for Labour to concentrate on Tory held small margin seats...that Libdems cant win and..

...LibDems to focus on 20-40 Tory held small margin states where LibDems have the better chance than Labour.

Its not rocket science...
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
If you spend your day attacking Starmer because he’s not moving fast enough on Single Market as you’d like, while Johnson is

1. Passing a vote suppression law
2. Axing post Brexit environmental standards
3. Raising taxes on poor to pay for Brexit

Then you really need to WTFU.
The Labour Party is a pro Europe party with pro Europe members, activists, MPs & with most pro EU leader in my lifetime operating in one of the most difficult political contexts post war.

In 480 of the 650 seats it’s the only plausible challenger to the Tories.

Your choice.
The electoral calculus is simple.

There’s circa 20 southern remainerish Tory seats ready to drop to LibDems, the DUP are fading fast.

Labour need only to win back 30-35 seats from Tories.
& many of which usually vote Labour & need a swing of just 1-2%.

It’s not rocket science.
Read 14 tweets

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