It’s become clear from reports in the last few days that Australia has been deceiving 🇫🇷 for as long as the last 18 months.
Countries can play hard ball on commercials interests - everyone does it, incl. the 🇫🇷.
But such an action by allies on defence pacts is something else.
Countries can play hard ball on commercials interests - everyone does it, incl. the 🇫🇷.
But such an action by allies on defence pacts is something else.
The upshot of this is the 🇫🇷 will conclude that in foreign policy terms Biden is continuity Trump. But the 🇫🇷 have always been less dewey-eyed about the US anyway.
🇫🇷 will strengthen focus on EU & assume that 🇦🇺 isn’t a serious dependable ally.
What does this mean for 🇬🇧?
🇫🇷 will strengthen focus on EU & assume that 🇦🇺 isn’t a serious dependable ally.
What does this mean for 🇬🇧?
The AUKUS stuff will please the anti-EUers but less reported on is how little 🇬🇧 benefits from this. 🇺🇸 will get lion share of any new contract while 🇬🇧, reliant on 🇫🇷 good will for so many things: immigration control, trade flows etc will simply think Britain an reliable sh*t.
I suspect 🇺🇸 & 🇫🇷 won’t fall out too badly. They’ll come to an arrangement. The 🇦🇺 have lost the only European ally that’s a serious Pacific player.
But 🇬🇧 won’t gain anything apart from a commercial thrown bone perhaps.
The 🇫🇷 tho will assume there’s no real ally to had in 🇬🇧.
But 🇬🇧 won’t gain anything apart from a commercial thrown bone perhaps.
The 🇫🇷 tho will assume there’s no real ally to had in 🇬🇧.
This may feel good for some but strategically this makes no sense.
From 2016, 🇬🇧 military was 1 of the few cards 🇬🇧 could play in leveraging EU acquiesce in other areas.
By doing this 🇫🇷 will assume 🇬🇧 isn’t to be trusted.
& European defence pacts without the 🇫🇷 don’t happen.
From 2016, 🇬🇧 military was 1 of the few cards 🇬🇧 could play in leveraging EU acquiesce in other areas.
By doing this 🇫🇷 will assume 🇬🇧 isn’t to be trusted.
& European defence pacts without the 🇫🇷 don’t happen.
Brexit never made sense but a 🇬🇧 using its military in an Anglo-French led wider European security space would’ve been a smart move & bought huge goodwill + acquiescence from Europeans.
What’s 🇬🇧 plan now?
Making an enemy of 🇫🇷 in order to get a few $ on 🇦🇺 sub parts contracts?
What’s 🇬🇧 plan now?
Making an enemy of 🇫🇷 in order to get a few $ on 🇦🇺 sub parts contracts?
In global terms tho the west including Europe is also the loser.
The 🇨🇳 & 🇷🇺 will conclude that the post Trump west is not as solid as was assumed.
Nothing much good for Europe will come from this.
& neither I doubt for 🇺🇸 or 🇦🇺 either.
/ends
The 🇨🇳 & 🇷🇺 will conclude that the post Trump west is not as solid as was assumed.
Nothing much good for Europe will come from this.
& neither I doubt for 🇺🇸 or 🇦🇺 either.
/ends
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
