I've been clear all along that I support @EggerDC in this debate: previous infection-induced immunity should count as immune in a mandate. Antibody or T-cell tests are imperfect, but they could suffice. That said, the replies to BOTH threads here reflect a bigger problem.
@EggerDC That bigger problem is an unwillingness to take at face value the thing being discussed. Those who want to accept infection-induced immunity are deemed anti-vax enablers. Those who oppose an exemption are authoritarians who just want to control people.
In fact, this follows a common pattern that is not just a "very online" phenomenon: a tendency to push the debate into extreme directions. It's unhealthy because this should be a nuanced policy debate over ever-involving science and not a comic book good v. evil fight.
To be sure, there ARE people with extreme positions. And there are trolls who pretend to take extreme positions. But I really do believe most people want to find a workable, sensible approach in line with the preponderance of scientific evidence.
So here is what I take as the strength in each side's position. For Eggers, he is right to say that getting vaxxed after infection is the right personal health decision, BUT not needed to prevent "grave risk" per OSHA. For Frum, he is right that antibody tests are ALSO invasive.
Of course, this raises the question of what the mandate is trying to achieve: Is it just to attain "workplace" safety so people don't get covid from co-workers on the job? Or is it more a way to get population-level immunity via a mechanism that will reach the most people?
@DemFromCT's point here is key too. Is the mandate about stopping or slowing infections? Or is it about preventing severity and hospitalization? Relatedly, is OSHA trying to prevent hospitalization *of workers*? (Employers would benefit too).
@DemFromCT My overall view hasn't changed - We need to get from pandemic to endemic and the only way is through mass population immunity. The sooner we get there the better (to give less time and space for immune-evading variants to emerge). It's a global issue too.
@DemFromCT The Delta wave here in the South has made it clear that this is still far too much dry tinder out there. And unlike in high-vax San Francisco, our hospitals really are overrun. WE need the mandates precisely because of the resistance to the vaccine, which means more conflict.
@DemFromCT But if this conflict is going to be fought in the red states with low vax rates, it might make more sense to be nimble here and allow for previous infection-induced immunity to suffice - as long as it can be proven in an antibody or T-cell test.
@DemFromCT Because the main reason most people didn't get vaccinated here is that they didn't think they'd get covid, or that covid would be so bad - esp for middle age people. The side effect calculations here are skewed when people underestimate the virus risk.

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More from @AstorAaron

19 Sep
Have watched with curious interest the ongoing debate over the American Revolution and Dunmore and one thing has struck me: There were likely a lot of people who supported ending slavery (thru gradual PA/1780-style laws) AND vehemently opposed the Dunmore proclamation.
My lens into this is the debate during the Civil War, so I want to be cautious about reading similar debates backward to the 1770s. But the *means* of emancipation mattered enormously to whites generally in favor of emancipation.
If emancipation were viewed as a product of "treachery" or "insurrection" of some kind (as Dunmore surely was perceived), support for emancipation among moderately anti-slavery elites would dissipate...but not necessarily disappear.
Read 14 tweets
17 Sep
FDA rejects boosters for all 16+. I think that's the right call. There's no need for boosters for 20-somethings. But boosters for 65+ are justified.
Also, we need to be clear about WHY boosters are justified. It's not to cut down on all infections. It's to cut down on severity and hospitalizations. And 65+ are more vulnerable to severity and hospitalization, both initially after dose 2 and over time.
Another possibility is to have boosters for 65+ and then expand the range of co-morbidities to justify boosters for those under 65.
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep
Not a whole lot of Dems voting for recall. And with Indies split 50-50, this thing had no chance.
Also, doesn't look like there was a big revolt of parents of school-age kids.
LOL - More Trump voters voted against recall than Biden voters voted for recall.
Read 8 tweets
13 Sep
Didn't realize NYC was tracking cases and hospitalization by vaccination status. So here are the data for the week ending August 28. Unvaccinated are 5X likely to be infected (PCR+) than fully vaccinated. And unvaccinated are 11.4X likely to be hospitalized than fully vaccinated.
Here is the link below. Note that the cases (and hospitalizations to a lesser extent) of vaccinated rise when the unvaxxed cases rise. But for unvaxxed, cases rose from 6/27 from 36 per 100k to 381 per 100k, while vaxxed rose from 6 to 76. www1.nyc.gov/site/doh/covid…
Breakthrough cases are more apparent because of the increase in raw numbers of them. But the rate of case increase under Delta between vaxxed and unvaxxed was pretty similar. Vaxxed cases jumped 12.6X with Delta while unvaxxed cases jumped 10.5X with Delta.
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Interesting that UK may go with a single dose for 12-15s bc of myocarditis risk (esp. boys). I think this is a conversation we should be having in the US too. I don't know if a single dose, delayed second dose, smaller dose (but still two shots), or status quo is best.
Note that this is for 12-15s (and could be part of conversation for 16-18s), and not for under 12s. The trial for under 12s already involves a lower dose, so I would expect the myo risk to be lower as a result (though we'll see soon when results are published).
It's especially important to think this through as mandates become more widespread for younger people. Dosing varies quite a bit. Might it make sense to vary dosing for teens based on weight instead of age? Boys different dose than girls since boys have higher myo risk?
Read 5 tweets
12 Sep
This might be the most important piece you'll read on covid now. We need explicit answers to:
1) What is the goal at this point?
2) Are the goals different regionally? If so, because of different risk tolerance or other reasons?
3) What are the off ramps?
nytimes.com/2021/08/30/opi…
This entire pandemic we've seen both under-reaction and over-reaction. In both situations, we have no discernible goal in mind. I've long argued that the goal should be endemicity, not Zero Covid. That means the virus will circulate, but few will get badly sick.
If Yale is going to push more NPIs with a 99% vaxxed campus, what is the goal there? Where is the off ramp? Meanwhile, here in Tennessee we have less than 50% vaxxed and still plenty of never-infected & not-vaxxed aka "immunologically naive" adults. Hospitals postpone procedures.
Read 12 tweets

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