Thread by @maxbergmann

A few thoughts on @SangerNYT rundown.

1. France is right to be pissed. It's like they were left at the alter and found out via text. 2. But AUKSUS makes more strategic sense for Australia. No good way to end it w/ France. 3. US is stuck in the 90s..1/
nytimes.com/2021/09/17/us/…

on Europe. The US pivoted to Asia, yet for Europe we pretend like its still the 90s, when we were hyper-engaged and determined to call the shots. We pretend we haven't pivoted when it is clear we have! Now we want Europe to just follow and get in line but w/o really engaging.

We pay little attention. We don't really track EU developments, and we still treat the EU as if its some nascent multilat org just like we did in the 90s. But it's not the 90s! The EU is a thing. washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…

4. The US and Europe have different security priorities. We aren't as focused on Europe's neighborhood: Mideast, Libya, Africa, and even Russia. That's fine. But we s/d stop pretending that Europe doesn't need to look out for itself b/c we will, as if it's still the 90s.

Meanwhile the US has pushed Europe hard on our priority, China. France, unlike Berlin, shares the concern and has been supportive and active. Hence, the sub deal. So to have us play a role in the collapse of that deal is... well infuriating.

5. France's frustration has been growing. This isn't just about subs. When Europe, ie France, pushes for the EU to reduce its dependence on a disengaged US ("strategic autonomy") and develop EU defense, we freak out, kill off any bold efforts. EU defense is stalled b/c of us.

France had hopes the Biden admin would acknowledge this reality. Agree on the need for the EU to become a stronger actor, create a division of labor, and firmly back EU defense/autonomy. Macron pitched this in Feb at Munich. defenseone.com/ideas/2021/02/…

But this hasn't materialized. State and DoD bureaucracies are loathe to change (they like Europe's dependence!) and won't unless forced to. This is difficult w/o confirmed political appointees to force the issue. So France has been left hanging on one of its main priorities.

A clear way forward then is for a real Biden-Macron sit down to reset the relationship. And for the US to actually back EU defense and "strategic autonomy." That w/d be huge for France and is firmly in our interests and NATO's as well. americanprogress.org/issues/securit…

Without the offer of a big olive branch, I seriously doubt things will just return to normal. And France will just get over it. This could easily sprawl (think digital taxes on Apple, Google, etc), or causing issues at NATO, EU CBAM talks c/d get ugly.

What we need to realize is that France matters more to the US now because of the EU and its role within it. It's a precarious moment for transatlantic relations.