Thread by @adamkams

Not a submarine expert, but as a recently arrived Aussie in #Europe I’d like to offer some insights as someone who’s researched/taught Aus foreign & security policy re the #AUKUS deal, so here we go… 1/

There’s really no justification the French were caught unawares re the cancellation of the @navalgroup_AU contract. The writing had been on wall for some time that the deal was on rapidly melting thin ice. Anyone claiming otherwise just wasn’t paying attention. 2/

But it’s also true the Morrison Govt mishandled the r’ship in rushing to announce #AUKUS. At the very least, the trilateral presser should have been delayed until Morrison had spoken directly w @EmmanuelMacron, or conveyed the same through @FranceAustralia Ambassador. 3/

There’s no excuse for treating allies w such disrespect. And just hoping that bruised pride will go away isn’t a reasonable or rational foreign policy approach. Certainly not the approach of a trusted ally.

Having said this, as others have pointed out… 4/

the strategic environment for Australia has changed. The Govt made a decision to cancel a contract experiencing delays + $€ overruns & sign a new deal for better strategic capabilities. Let’s not pretend *any* EU member state wouldn’t do the same if in national interest 5/

The recent decision by France to recall their Ambassadors to Aus & US is, in my view, an gross overreaction. Everyone accepts the French are justifiably angry but in diplomacy withdrawing ambassadors is the most serious of measures; historically a sign of impending conflict. 6/

The suggestion then by EU it may not be able to trust Aust is also nonsensical. I get the politics of the EU being seen to be supportive of France, but this statement is again an overreaction & diminishes the EU. Clauses were built into the contract for this exact possibility. 7/

Lament the outcome of an EU Member State losing a major contract, sure, but suggesting you now can’t trust a country over a sovereign decision to exercise a pre-agreed clause to terminate a contract makes no sense whatsoever & is a double standard. 8/

Whether justified or not, Australia has a long held security concern over invasion. Perhaps it’s because we did it to our Indigenous population a couple of centuries ago & we’re worried someone might easily now do the same to us (a 🧵 for another time) 9/

Either way, #AUKUS is manifestation of long-standing security ties signed in response to a changing security environment - the Indo-Pacific region has been in a major arms race for 15+ yrs & Aust has lagged behind, trusting that allies would come save us if we got in trouble. 10/

That was a naive belief. Now, if as a result of this decision the @EU_Commission decides to engage more fully in the Indo-Pacific that’s a good thing. For far too long the EU has ignored 2/3 of the world’s population, prioritising the EU-Nth America r’ship. 11/

It is certainly time for the EU to engage in what’s going on in the region. Previous global conflicts + #COVID19, #AMR & #ClimateChange just to name a few reveal we can’t separate into regions. What affects 1 spills over to affect us all. 12/

So the question for France & @EU_Commission is: who are your preferred partners? Those countries like US, UK & Aus that share your values of democracy & a rules-based order, or just branch out in your own? Think carefully. The consequences either way will be significant. End.