There’s inconsistency on both sides in the #AUKUS row. Anglos complain France not reliable / committed in Indo-Pacific yet begrudge its offense at being sidelined in that very arena; French preach European strategic autonomy yet are appalled when Anglos take them at their word.
Better to see AUKUS as the poorly handled realisation of new basic realities. UK and Aus both have strong impetus (Brexit & geography respectively) to move in lockstep with US on China policy; France & EU have grounds to seek a more nuanced form of alignment with US positions.
Recognising those differences, and the inevitable pluralism of any post-hegemonic Western alliance (“Westishness” as I’ve called this in @NewStatesman), would be a good first step to managing them more constructively in future and thus moving on from the AUKUS row.
Final thought in passing... the term “strategic autonomy” is clearly becoming more hindrance than help to the actually sensible French goal of a Europe better able to manage its own security (and to be a sovereign partner rather than surly supplicant to US). Time to ditch it.
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With a week to go until the 🇩🇪 election, the 3rd & final TV debate is about to start. Time is running out for CDU/CSU candidate Armin Laschet to regain the lead.
More on his woes and the "Merkel factor" in our latest @NewStatesman Germany Elects podcast:
The snapshot from our @NewStatesman poll tracker: the SPD lead under Olaf Scholz has stabilised at just under 26%, CDU/CSU under Armin Laschet just over 21% and Greens under Annalena Baerbock at just under 16%.
Here's what that would mean for Bundestag seat-shares: six politically and arithmetically viable coalitions (albeit some more politically viable than others).
The 2nd 🇩🇪 TV debate (of 3) is about to start. Backdrop: SPD lead under Scholz has stabilised; CDU/CSU fightback under Laschet is running out of time; Greens under Baerbock haven't broken through.
Opening question begins with coalition options. Laschet barrels in with his favourite talking point (that Scholz would bring the socialist Left party into power). Baerbock gives nuanced reply on similarities (social justice policies) and differences (foreign policy) with Left.
Scholz gives his stock answer - almost word-for-word his reply in debate 1. Doesn't rule out a deal with Left but stresses importance of foreign and defence policy.
As before: Scholz would prefer not to govern with Left but wants to maximise leverage in coalition talks.
Election is very open, with the top three parties vying for first place. Some 5 different coalitions after election are currently arithmetically conceivable. Momentum is with SPD, so onus tonight is on Laschet and Baerbock to change the narrative.
Warm-up question. Each is invited to criticise the others, but all largely duck the question (bar an oblique dig at Scholz over SPD climate policies from Baerbock) and instead set out their stalls.
Though this ought to keep SPDler feet on the ground: INSA poll also shows slip in Scholz's previously rising numbers in the preferred-chancellor stakes (sometimes a leading indicator for voting intention), with "none of the above" retaking the lead
...which means we can keep using the excellent German word Wahlkrimi ("election thriller" ie a tight election race with the suspense of a crime novel).
German president Steinmeier delivers a sombre speech about help for communities devastated by floods while in background CDU chancellor candidate Armin Laschet appears to laugh himself silly about some joke:
There are many CDUers, including on Laschet’s own centrist wing, who fear he’s ultimately a natural small-town mayor who is out of his depth as frontrunner to succeed Merkel. Others counter that his jovial, folksy style is his strength. This clip will strengthen the former camp.
Another theory this may strengthen is that Laschet has mixed feelings about being chancellor candidate at all. I understand he was talked into running to block right-winger Merz, and only after that point came to like the idea. Deep down, does he really want to be chancellor?
In 2015 I wrote a paper called Britain's Cosmopolitan Future about the "Londonisation of Britain" and how the capital's values were rippling out to the rest of the country, and what that might mean for the future of UK (but especially English) politics.
Today I see what I described 6 years ago as the "emerging cosmopolitan majority" in polls showing that voters support the England team taking the knee.
Whisper it softly, as it doesn't fit the trendy narrative of national polarisation, but the UK and England are changing fast.